Road to the Gold Cup 2020

Double, I read somewhere at the weekend that Chris's Dream will be targeting the National so not sure he will go to the GC.

I've been banging the same drum all year, and ignoring the KG run, the Lostintranslation drum. As I say, I am happy to ignore the KG run, goes well fresh, doesn't mind the hill or the new course, not ground dependent, Defi form, smashed Topofthegame at Aintree (and with the Santini price and Delta Work form, you'd assume he'd be up there), beat BDM in his back garden quite comfortably and no real doubt about the trip.

I really worry that Delta Work and Kemboy could have had a really tough race in the DRF, Clan doesn't like Cheltenham, ABP the big danger obviously but it is hard to go back to back.

Going to be a great race either way!
 
Flaggers said:
Double, I read somewhere at the weekend that Chris's Dream will be targeting the National so not sure he will go to the GC.

I've been banging the same drum all year, and ignoring the KG run, the Lostintranslation drum. As I say, I am happy to ignore the KG run, goes well fresh, doesn't mind the hill or the new course, not ground dependent, Defi form, smashed Topofthegame at Aintree (and with the Santini price and Delta Work form, you'd assume he'd be up there), beat BDM in his back garden quite comfortably and no real doubt about the trip.

I really worry that Delta Work and Kemboy could have had a really tough race in the DRF, Clan doesn't like Cheltenham, ABP the big danger obviously but it is hard to go back to back.

Going to be a great race either way!
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Yes, I had been operating under the assumption that Chris's Dream would definitely be going to the Gold cup.
But in the recent HDB stable tour comments shared by DG on here, it seems it's all about Monalee for HDB for the GC, and Chris's dream is only 50/50.

Chris's Dream relished testing ground conditions when backing up victory in the Troytown Chase at Navan with a smooth win in the Red Mills Chase. However, connections are yet to decide whether he will run at the meeting in either the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup or the Ryanair Chase or miss The Festival altogether.

De Bromhead continued: "Chris's Dream had a tough enough race the other day. He has been moved up to a rating of 164 with victory in a race I thought was over an inadequate trip for him. We are definitely considering it, but there is also Aintree and Punchestown."
 
Double Handful said:
Yes, I had been operating under the assumption that Chris's Dream would definitely be going to the Gold cup.
But in the recent HDB stable tour comments shared by DG on here, it seems it's all about Monalee for HDB for the GC, and Chris's dream is only 50/50.

Chris's Dream relished testing ground conditions when backing up victory in the Troytown Chase at Navan with a smooth win in the Red Mills Chase. However, connections are yet to decide whether he will run at the meeting in either the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup or the Ryanair Chase or miss The Festival altogether.

De Bromhead continued: "Chris's Dream had a tough enough race the other day. He has been moved up to a rating of 164 with victory in a race I thought was over an inadequate trip for him. We are definitely considering it, but there is also Aintree and Punchestown."
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HDB is also on record a number of times saying that Chris's Dream only has 2-3 races in him a season and then begins to lose his form, so if Aintree or Punchestown are in mind he won't be going to the Cheltenham.
 
Flaggers said:
Double, I read somewhere at the weekend that Chris's Dream will be targeting the National so not sure he will go to the GC.

I've been banging the same drum all year, and ignoring the KG run, the Lostintranslation drum. As I say, I am happy to ignore the KG run, goes well fresh, doesn't mind the hill or the new course, not ground dependent, Defi form, smashed Topofthegame at Aintree (and with the Santini price and Delta Work form, you'd assume he'd be up there), beat BDM in his back garden quite comfortably and no real doubt about the trip.

I really worry that Delta Work and Kemboy could have had a really tough race in the DRF, Clan doesn't like Cheltenham, ABP the big danger obviously but it is hard to go back to back.

Going to be a great race either way!
Click to expand...

I can't have Lostintranslation as I don't think he's going to be suited to the nature of a Gold Cup, although the absence of Native River will help him.

He's always had an easy time of it until the King George, when he blew out.

Prior to that: -

Betfair Chase : 4 Runners on the big Haydock track, was switched off at the back and allowed to ease into the race in his own time.
Colin Parker : 4 Runners again and was allowed an easy time up front against inferior opposition
Mildmay : 6 Runners. They didn't go too much of a pace here and he was switched off on his own in 3rd for most of the race.
JLT : Never saw another horse until after the last and while then being outpaced by Defi looks fair, he couldn't pull away from Mengli Khan on the run-in.
Scilly Isles : 5 Runners and again never saw another horse until after the last, when again beaten.

He lost his first two novice chases, both times beaten by La Bague Au Roi and while she was a revelation for much of last season and he was clearly unlucky in the second of those races, the fact that she got the better of him once taking him on for the lead in the first of them was noteable

I'm maybe being unfair on a horse with his record but either the yard have been keen to keep him out of any scrimmaging during his races or circumstances have just turned it that way, but either way that won't be the case in a Gold Cup.

Cyrname and Aso made it a test in the King George and to my eyes he simply didn't like being taken out of his comfort zone, something will surely happen again in three weeks.
 
Wouldn't be using the KG to beat him with as he never went a yard.

Trip is an issue for me and on soft ground there has to be a big question. Decent ground can only help his chances.
 
Thats the beauty of racing, it's all opinions! I get what you mean about the small fields but he's still beating Defi, getting close to Defi and beating TOTG, who I know you like, is the key for me in an open year!
 
The thing is, forgiving a horse for never going a yard last time out is fine on occasion but we're talking about going into the Gold Cup off the back of it, not a small field G2.

and there is every possibility that the Friday will be soft or worst because we know that even if it's soft with good in places on the first two days then they'll start watering the New course.

In the season's most prestigious race, which is strong in depth I just can't be backing a horse, especially at single figure odds with those doubts.
 
Euronymous said:
I've got big positions on Santini and Delta Work and fear Lost.. more than the Mullins pair.
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The prices last year looked very generous even if waiting a year.

Hard to back up I know but ABP won with a bit in hand last year and has to be feared I would say. Could take some beating.
 
wilsonl said:
The thing is, forgiving a horse for never going a yard last time out is fine on occasion but we're talking about going into the Gold Cup off the back of it, not a small field G2.

and there is every possibility that the Friday will be soft or worst because we know that even if it's soft with good in places on the first two days then they'll start watering the New course.

In the season's most prestigious race, which is strong in depth I just can't be backing a horse, especially at single figure odds with those doubts.
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I agree it's hardly ideal and can see why some would swerve him.
 
Frankel said:
The prices last year looked very generous even if waiting a year.

Hard to back up I know but ABP won with a bit in hand last year and has to be feared I would say. Could take some beating.
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Would quicker ground be a concern. Particularly with his jumping not being the most consistent

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littlelad said:
Would quicker ground be a concern. Particularly with his jumping not being the most consistent

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There was a big fear the ground would be too quick last year. I know a bit of rain came on the Friday, but it wasn't slow for the Gold cup was it?
 
archie said:
Some of the grass car parks were waterlogged and unusable.
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Wow. Wasn't aware it was that heavy. I remember on the Thursday the ground had dried out significantly since Tuesday.

When making my own final betting selections on Thursday night/Fri morning, I distinctly recall being drawn to horses who'd appreciate the quicker ground.

So much so, I'd been on Al Boum photo for months and my notes on the Friday morning were "Fear the ground has gone against him". In a moment of madness, I added Might bite as cover [emoji85].

I remembered it raining on Friday, but thought it wasn't significant. Being in the pub for the day, it's obviously been lost on me that it was as bad as you've mentioned above...
 
littlelad said:
Would quicker ground be a concern. Particularly with his jumping not being the most consistent

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"Hard to repeat but still like ABP for this. Decent ground and will keep faith with LIT."

This is basically where I am and what I said earlier in the thread.
 
Double Handful said:
There was a big fear the ground would be too quick last year. I know a bit of rain came on the Friday, but it wasn't slow for the Gold cup was it?
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The time for the race was just over 2 seconds above standard that would suggest it was pretty much as officially stated (good to soft ) if not slightly quicker. I believe ABP correctly holds his place at the head of the market and has had a pretty good preparation.
 
frontrunner said:
The time for the race was just over 2 seconds above standard that would suggest it was pretty much as officially stated (good to soft ) if not slightly quicker. I believe ABP correctly holds his place at the head of the market and has had a pretty good preparation.
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Had just looked this up myself since my above post an hour ago. As you say ground was officially good to soft and time was only 2 seconds above standard.

In comparison, the Ultima on the Tuesday was officially soft and was 34 seconds above standard.

The JLT, Kim Muir and Ryanair on the Thursday were officially described as good to soft and were 13, 22 and 15 seconds above standard, respectively.

That all coincides with how I remembered it last year. The ground was getting quicker by the day, and whilst it obviously rained on the Friday, I don't think the ground was testing or slow. Certainly nothing like when Native River won it 12 months previous, where the ground was officially soft and 26 seconds above standard.
 
Frankel said:
Dear God! :surrender:
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Bear in mind, this was late Thursday night or early Friday morning where I feared the ground had got too quick for my big antepost bets on ABP. I was trying to think outside the box and look for something at a price as cover.

My notes on Might Bite read:

"Needs a Lazarus like come back, but the ground has come in his favour compared to last year".
 
Double Handful said:
Bear in mind, this was late Thursday night or early Friday morning where I feared the ground had got too quick for my big antepost bets on ABP. I was trying to think outside the box and look for something at a price as cover.

My notes on Might Bite read:

"Needs a Lazarus like come back, but the ground has come in his favour compared to last year".
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Was certainly outside the box :whistle:

You cleaned up on the winner so all good :ninja:
 
People talk a lot of shite re which races are 'trial' races for others etc but I'm not interested in anecdotal opinions. Instead here's some hard facts from cross referencing runners over the last 20 years where a horse has ran in race x and then gone on to race in the following gold cup. It's an updated and refined version of what I posted a couple of months back.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trial Races 2.JPG
 
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12 confirmations

Santini
Al Boum Photo
Delta Work
Lostintranslation
Clan Desbeaux
Kemboy
Bristol De Mai
Chris's Dream
Elegant Escape
Monalee
Presenting Percy
Real Steel
 
moehat said:
Does that just involve rest jinny?
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Yes although initial treatment usually involves getting the heat out as soon as possible. There are a myriad of things you can use such as ultrasound, magnets etc. but ultimately the rest and subsequent rehabilitation are crucial. I’d say from personal involvement I’d rather a ligament injury to a tendon but it would depend on severity.
 
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