Road to the Gold Cup 2020

Double Handful said:
Anyone know anything about Santini? Where could he potentially run as his Gold Cup prep?
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Santini set for Cotswold Chase this month.

NH "Santini has been slightly forgotten, but Nico rode him this morning – and he was mad fresh. The Cotswold Chase is where I’d like to go."
 
Euronymous said:
No, nothing has really stood out - but lets look at the last 10 Gold Cup winners and their profiles at the turn of the year

2019 - ABP had one win in open company
2018 - Native River did come across as the biggest danger to Might Bite but had been beat in race the previous year.
2017 - Sizing John looked Ryanair bound
2016 - Don Cossack had just fallen in the KG and had also come down in the previous year's Ryanair
2015 - Coneygree had won the Feltham but did not look a possible GC contender
2014 - Lord Windermere - Form not much to write home about. Very lucky RSA winner, outsider.
2013 - Bob's Worth did look the most likely at this stage
2012 - Synchronised was a handicapper
2011 - Long Run was the most likely winner at this stage
2010 - Imperial Commander. It was all about Denman and Kauto really despite IC's credentials

So of the last 10 GC winners you'd only say Long Run and Bob's Worth were in ABP's position as most likely as the year turned.
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Burial ground race for a horse when you look at the winners
 
Seems to me but if you look down that list how many of the trainers would you trust to keep a chaser sound long term? Elliott, Harrington and Tizzard for sure. Maybe Mullins
 
Thanks for posting Euro.

Also at a glance it's interesting to see how many of the recent Gold Cup winners you'd associate with speed, and how many with stamina. Denman and Native River are the only two winners since the turn of the century that you'd class as out and out stayers. Given the suggestion (evidence?) that horses are never quite the same after their win, outside of Kauto Star who was freakishly talented, and Best Mate who arguably ran in three weak Gold Cups, horses that have the right blend of speed and stamina are generally only able to produce that peak performance once in their career. You have to go back to L'escargot in the early 70's to find another dual winner. Two dual winners in 50 years is some stat. A stat that certainly says Al Boum Photo is unlikely to be able to do it again unless it's a particularly weak renewal.

Other things of note are that all ran fairly prominently either at the pace or not far behind it. I don't think any won by picking up the pieces apart from Lord Windermere. I also can't think of another winner this century that wasn't found in the first four or five of the betting. Lord Windemere once again is the outlier. He was also the only Gold Cup winner this century to have not placed all season beforehand. Having said that it was easily the worst Gold Cup field in my lifetime, and hopefully we won't see such dirge again in the showpiece race of the Festival.

So essentially the Gold Cup winner should come form the first five in the betting, usually the first three, it's unlikely to be the previous years winner, but it does happen, and it's far more likely to be a debutante in the race, or one that didn't have a hard race the previous season. See More Business would be a good example having been carried out at half way and then returning the following year to win it.

Taking all those things in to consideration you'd think a shortlist of Santini, Delta Work, Al Boum Photo, and Kemboy should just about cover where this seasons winner will come from.
 
Interesting thoughts on the Gold Cup in multiple posts above.
Whether or not we think he can win, Lostintranslation falls into a similar category to Santini & Delta Work, and can't be written off yet, imo.
And Presenting Percy, despite running last year, you are as well to forget that. Last season was non existent for him.
His RSA win in 2018 is hard to ignore and his previous festival record before that is very impressive. He clearly loves Cheltenham!
I think we're looking more at the top 7 in the betting could all still realistically and potentially win this years Gold Cup.

That's not to say that I fancy all of them myself.
Like many, I agree that the extra 2.5 F and Gold Cup test won't suit Clan Des Obeaux.
And I already have a healthy Ante Post position on Santini.

As it stands right now, it does look very open and competitive - I wouldn't be aggressively putting up one horse as a stand out clear fav.
 
Maruco said:
Thanks for posting Euro.

Also at a glance it's interesting to see how many of the recent Gold Cup winners you'd associate with speed, and how many with stamina. Denman and Native River are the only two winners since the turn of the century that you'd class as out and out stayers. Given the suggestion (evidence?) that horses are never quite the same after their win, outside of Kauto Star who was freakishly talented, and Best Mate who arguably ran in three weak Gold Cups, horses that have the right blend of speed and stamina are generally only able to produce that peak performance once in their career. You have to go back to L'escargot in the early 70's to find another dual winner. Two dual winners in 50 years is some stat. A stat that certainly says Al Boum Photo is unlikely to be able to do it again unless it's a particularly weak renewal.

Other things of note are that all ran fairly prominently either at the pace or not far behind it. I don't think any won by picking up the pieces apart from Lord Windermere. I also can't think of another winner this century that wasn't found in the first four or five of the betting. Lord Windemere once again is the outlier. He was also the only Gold Cup winner this century to have not placed all season beforehand. Having said that it was easily the worst Gold Cup field in my lifetime, and hopefully we won't see such dirge again in the showpiece race of the Festival.

So essentially the Gold Cup winner should come form the first five in the betting, usually the first three, it's unlikely to be the previous years winner, but it does happen, and it's far more likely to be a debutante in the race, or one that didn't have a hard race the previous season. See More Business would be a good example having been carried out at half way and then returning the following year to win it.

Taking all those things in to consideration you'd think a shortlist of Santini, Delta Work, Al Boum Photo, and Kemboy should just about cover where this seasons winner will come from.
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Don't forget the loveable old boat Synchronised!
 
I did! Thanks for reminding me Bonjers. I should do some research before I write stuff. The memory isn't what it was.
 
I've probably talked about trial race type analysis previously, anyway according to Andy Gibson on his Cheltenham Trail website the following races are supposedly trial races for the Gold Cup :-

Down Royal JNWINE Champion Chase
Wetherby Charlie Hall Chase
Haydock Betfair Chase
Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup
Kempton King George VI
Leopardstown Lexus Chase
Cheltenham Cotswold Chase
Leopardstown Irish Gold Cup
Newbury Denman Chase

Well the report below gives something to ponder on as it shows info cross referencing those runners in the trial races above against the target race of the following Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Cheltenham-Gold-Cup-Trial-Races.jpg
 
Isn't David still laid up? You wouldn't expect Paul to get off a previous winner.

Everyone is fully entitled to their own view on his chances even when based on a false premise.
 
archie said:
Isn't David still laid up? You wouldn't expect Paul to get off a previous winner.

Everyone is fully entitled to their own view on his chances even when based on a false premise.
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Article in yesterday's RP saying that he had set his sights on returning in time for Cheltenham
 
I'm wondering if DRF gold cup is the big one for Sizing John

Bit like Last instalment few years back

Go all out knowing they can't pick and choose their races

Killugtagh Vic of a similar profile albeit less talented, put in a huge showing a few years back before falling

I await his price but I'm tempted
 
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I would agree with your thinking on Sizing John but if the horse is not absolutely 100% and all conditions not ideal, then he won’t run. I see this as an on the day bet.
 
I'm balls deep in Santini and Delta Work (gone off the latter as this wide course he seems to take in his races won't play in a Gold Cup) and see Lost' as the main danger.
 
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