Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

I don't agree, he simply wasn't that fluent a hurdler. And he was pulling a cart before he stumbled over the last. That wasn't caused by breathing issues it was as a result of his hurdling technique. The New One is a similar beast.
 
Euronymous said:
Segal's column in the Weekender was terrible today. In it he made a case for opposing MTOY that was pure baloney. A stayer will always win this race ahead of a speed merchant he claims - example Al Ferof beating the two SS's and Captain Cee Bee beating Binocular. Sounds plausable, but what about Go Native and Brave Inca beating future 3m chasers in their years? And yes Tom, I would back Al Ferof to beat Sprinter Sacre if their Supreme conditions were replicated again.
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He is of course correct if you are talking about a big immature speedster who also had a wind problem like SS was. MTOY is none of these things so as usual TS is throwing shyte at the wall hoping some will stick. Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular because Nicky was resigned to the fact he wasn't going to be allowed to run at Cheltenham and he was gearing him up for Aintree when they changed their minds at the very last minute.

Where on earth does he get the idea Captain Cee Bee was a stayer from anyway. If he was I think the penny might have dropped with Eddy Harty by now that he needs a step up in trip:blink:
 
I note too that the genius that is Nick Mordin reckons MTOY has it all to do because he didn't run in a novice hurdle last time and no horse in his data going back to 1989 has bucked that stat.

Excuse me, but maybe he can tell us how many novices rated 149 even ran in the Schweppes under its various incarnations.

I'd argue the very fact MTOY was good enough to win the hottest handicap hurdle in the world by clear daylight without being asked a serious question marks him out as one serious bucker.

Blue Bajan was unsighted in the race off something like 127 yet went on to win the big one at Aintree two months later.

MTOY might end up not winning the race but it won't be because he won the Schweppes. It will be because there might be one in the race that's even better.
 
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Euronymous said:
I don't agree, he simply wasn't that fluent a hurdler. And he was pulling a cart before he stumbled over the last. That wasn't caused by breathing issues it was as a result of his hurdling technique. .
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agree shadow leader another speed horse who won the supreme i know the last few supreme wonners jump bred but many have been flat breds

so i also agree with

MTOY might end up not winning the race but it won't be because he won the Schweppes. It will be because there might be one in the race that's even better.
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or becuase the ground turns soft which will not count in his favour but he is going to be very hard to beat otherwise
 
Desert Orchid said:
I note too that the genius that is Nick Mordin reckons MTOY has it all to do because he didn't run in a novice hurdle last time and no horse in his data going back to 1989 has bucked that stat.

Excuse me, but maybe he can tell us how many novices rated 149 even ran in the Schweppes under its various incarnations.

I'd argue the very fact MTOY was good enough to win the hottest handicap hurdle in the world by clear daylight without being asked a serious question marks him out as one serious bucker.

Blue Bajan was unsighted in the race off something like 127 yet went on to win the big one at Aintree two months later.

MTOY might end up not winning the race but it won't be because he won the Schweppes. It will be because there might be one in the race that's even better.
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I think MTOY is the most likely winner of the supreme and cant hold the fact that he won at Newbury against him.

However, isnt the idea of the Schweppes being the biggest handicap in the world a little quaint these days? I dont think its nearly the race that it was 10 years ago. Wingman, Heathcote, Recession Proof.

But fewer horses are being prepared for it in the way they were 10 years ago and maybe its becoming a victim of the Cheltenham hype, with more horses being lined up for a win the Coral Cup/County. Or even do the Imperial Cup/Chelt festival double.

Its a good pot to win with a decent novice instead of taking the easy option of something like the Tolworth or Deloitte. Fits in well for the novice calendar.
 
Tanlic said:
Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular because Nicky was resigned to the fact he wasn't going to be allowed to run at Cheltenham and he was gearing him up for Aintree when they changed their minds at the very last minute.
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Revisionist bull. The question mark over Binocular was whether he would go for the Triumph or the Supreme.
 
Agreed...it is infuriating the way Tanlic passes opinions off as fact.

Here is a direct quote from Henderson in the lead-up to Cheltenham 2008.

'I am hoping that JP (McManus) will allow me to run Binocular in the Triumph Hurdle rather than the Supreme Novices'. He is a very stuffy horse and needed his recent Kempton run. Obviously I realise JP has also got Franchoek in the Triumph."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ra...opes-Binocular-way-Triumph.html#ixzz2Mr1m7M5j
​
 
Tanlic said:
It's got absolutely nothing to do with whether he ran to his best form against Chatterbox or not he'd pick that horse up and carry him. What I am saying he will not go on to be a Champion Hurdler and I am not dismissing him at all from becoming a very high class horse. he's that already.
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I have a feeling that Chatterbox will be the better horse of the two by the end of next season. He's a little immature at the moment but another year on his back he could be a serious prospect. In his NHF race he beat Alan King's Wouldyoulikeme which came as a shock to the trainer as he thought Wouldyoulikeme was a certainty that day. In his next race both he and MTOY would come out of it with a similar rating but even if it wasn't supposed to be MTOY'S day that day and he was being aimed at the betfair? the market told a different story and I can't get away from the ease of how Chatterbox won his last two races. I don't think he's been asked a serious question yet.
 
HawkWing said:
I think MTOY is the most likely winner of the supreme and cant hold the fact that he won at Newbury against him.

However, isnt the idea of the Schweppes being the biggest handicap in the world a little quaint these days? I dont think its nearly the race that it was 10 years ago. Wingman, Heathcote, Recession Proof.

But fewer horses are being prepared for it in the way they were 10 years ago and maybe its becoming a victim of the Cheltenham hype, with more horses being lined up for a win the Coral Cup/County. Or even do the Imperial Cup/Chelt festival double.

Its a good pot to win with a decent novice instead of taking the easy option of something like the Tolworth or Deloitte. Fits in well for the novice calendar.
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I thought about the past winners you mention when I was typing it up. Wingman was definitely a plot. I top-rated and backed (50s) Heathcote but it might have been a moderate renewal that year but he was very well in on his best older form. Recession Proof I can't remember too much about to be honest.

Nevertheless, this year's race looked very strong beforehand and I can't imagine any trainer in their right mind swerving a £150k pot for a crack at the County.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought about the past winners you mention when I was typing it up. Wingman was definitely a plot. I top-rated and backed (50s) Heathcote but it might have been a moderate renewal that year but he was very well in on his best older form. Recession Proof I can't remember too much about to be honest.

Nevertheless, this year's race looked very strong beforehand and I can't imagine any trainer in their right mind swerving a £150k pot for a crack at the County.
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Yeah, the Galway Hurdle is worth more. Not neccessarily the county, but I do think that its no longer the handicap that you need most in hand to win in the season. Only an opinion of course.
 
HawkWing said:
However, isnt the idea of the Schweppes being the biggest handicap in the world a little quaint these days? I dont think its nearly the race that it was 10 years ago. Wingman, Heathcote, Recession Proof.
.
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Recession Proof's year was a substitute race, and less than half the race's normal value.
Other recent runnings have included such as Zarkandar, Darlan, Punjabi, Essex, Get Me Out Of Here and Rooster Booster, so any suggestion that it's not as competitive recently is a myth - entirely of your own creation.
 
reet hard said:
Recession Proof's year was a substitute race, and less than half the race's normal value.
Other recent runnings have included such as Zarkandar, Darlan, Punjabi, Essex, Get Me Out Of Here and Rooster Booster, so any suggestion that it's not as competitive recently is a myth - entirely of your own creation.
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Who called it a myth? It was an opinion, one that I might be very wrong on.

How many horses that won/ran went on to win at the festival that year?
 
get me out of here finished 2nd btn neck by menorah spirit river who finished 17th (after mistake and eased admitidly) won the coral cup

darlan 2nd in the supreme

rooster booster 2nd in the betfair 2nd in the champion

zarakander betfair on his seasonal debut 5th in champion wiothout an ideal prepaeration

im not sure there are many if any novice races that can claim to have such a record
 
Yes. I do think that its not the race that it once was.

Too many mediocre editions with mediocre animals finishing close up. How many horses in this years field were unexposed. Front two? The relatively new approach of targetting unexposed novices at the valuable prize is keeping the race its status. Its just not the sole target for the best handicapped hurdlers that it once was. A race where you needed a stone in hand to win to beat the horses who were only well in by 10lbs.

This isnt something to beat My Tent or Yours over.

Its like automatically granting the "Whitbread" winner status/kudos for winning a race that once was an emblem of greatness. It doesnt mean great horses cant win it. While it hasnt got to that stage yet, its getting there.
 
Hawk Wing

It's clear you're crabbing the form of the Betfair to justify opposing MTOY, which is a bit daft really, when all the major raters see the form as elevating him to the highest rated novice going into the Supreme since God was in short trousers.
Win or lose, it is absolutely rock-solid form - as it invariably is for any big field, richly endowed handicap, flat or jumps, year in, year out - and your rationalising away for your own conviction won't change that; ever.
 
HawkWing said:
Its just not the sole target for the best handicapped hurdlers that it once was. A race where you needed a stone in hand to win to beat the horses who were only well in by 10lbs.
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I'd argue that this possibly developing trend [that top novices are targeting it] will ensure that it cements its status as the top handicap hurdle of the calendar. It might even lead to more plots than the crime section of the local library.

Mention of the Galway Hurdle raises a good point. I didn't think it eclipsed the Betfair in terms of prize money. If it does, I'll stand corrected. Horses in the big Irish handicap hurdles and, to a lesser extent, chases need to be further ahead of their OR than their UK counterparts. The Irish ratings tend to be lower than the British ones. Check out the the Irish hurdlers coming over here for the big handicaps next week. You'll notice the UK handicapper raises almost all of them (bar the ones over a certain level when their ORs are agreed by both sets of officials after consultation).
 
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Been looking at the race again this morning,I'm quite sweet on Jezki and am on ante post at some prices but I have been looking for a day of the race bet having missed the boat with MTOY.favourite gets all the respect in the world from me for the betfair performance but at 6/4 not for me given the record of shorties in this.If you've got 20's and the like for him I doff my cap to you!The one I keep coming back to is melodic rendezvous,course form,grade one winner (although not sure how strong) but he did quicken well in poor ground.At double figure prices he will do for me.just looking for someone who is paying first 4 places.
 
reet hard said:
Hawk Wing

It's clear you're crabbing the form of the Betfair to justify opposing MTOY
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No I'm not. Ive said it twice. I think MTOY will win the Supreme. You are defending MTOY against an assumed attack. Nice. He was a top notch winner but it could be of any handicap (not neccessarily the greatest handicap in the world or whatever it was referred to) That it was the Betfair hurdle doesnt mean its any better or worse a performance. At one stage you needed to be a long way ahead of the handicapper to win a race like that, not neccessarily anymore.

Galway Hurdle is more valuable, there was actual conversation on the ML on the morning of Betfair hurdle. I'm aware of the difference in ORs between Ireland and England. It affects the Boylesports/Pierse/Ladbroke hurdle as well.
 
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Sorry for taking it off topic.

I think there are far riskier supposed bankers than My Tent or Yours this year and there has been far riskier bankers in the Supreme over the years.
 
I've always had this nagging doubt if he comes under pressure he won't find anything but the confidence behind him is rock solid whether it Be the tea lady AP or NH.

I wonder how many people can even remember the name of the horse who started fav in last years race without looking?

I can't remember a hot pot that won bar Brave Inca. The Irish won it 3 times on the trot with favs but he would be the only one you could say was a real Banker.

Others like JP's You'llneverwalkalone, Cousin Vinny, Dunguib and Cue Card were well touted bankers and the all got beat. NH had a hotpot beat as well but can't remember it's name.Rose something.

I'd love to be in Grassy's shoes having backed him at huge odds but throwing big money on anything on the very first race could leave you chasing loses and your judgement going to pot fr the rest of the meeting if he loses.

However I'd worry a lot more is I were laying him than I would be backing him.
 
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