Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

I fancy the Mullins pair to be the only dangers to My Tent or Yours. I've loved Un Atout from the first time I saw him and even soft ground at Cheltenham will be lovely in comparison to the stuff he has raced on during the winter.
 
reet hard said:
My Tent Or Yours isn't Dunguib! One didn't have the speed for the job, the other one does.
The only forseeable chink in his considerable armour is heavy ground dulling that turn of foot, something you'd bet AP would allow for this time anyway.
Click to expand...

Ground! Good horses go on anything and he hacked up in very soft at Newbury

What would bother me if I had my life savings on him is the fact he might come out second best in a tight finish as he has done in the past. Or he might hate the course, or the fact he's only done it once and there's always a chance he was flattered, and this is much tougher task than the Betfair was.

At a guess I'd say there's at least 2-3 horses who will turn out to be better horses than Cotton Mill in the Supreme and he could easily be beaten but AP says he won't be and he's a better judge than me so he'll most likely overcome all of the above and win...........but I'm still not betting him
 
I'm not given to backing short shots either.

While I reckon MTOY's various current ratings would be good enough win just about every one of the last 50+ runnings, which would make him outstanding value at the current shortest price, I just wouldn't see the point of level-staking him. A heavy hitting pro would probably be getting wired in.

I'd rather back something else place-only or look for something in the market without the favourite, which is what I'll probably do.
 
I'm against the fav purely on price,he'll be thereabouts though.Im all over Melodic rendezvous,especially given the ground.can be backed first 5 places with hills.giving money away IMO.wont be out of the first 3 let alone 5.Also the ground has to be coming for Jezki,not the forgotten horse of the race but people may be overlooking him because of small field form.JP reportedly paid more like 700k for him,I don't think they would have paid tht for an animal under 160.he has to be bang there.
 
Last edited:
Aye, offer of the Century.:)
We'll pay 5 places (because we know we won't take a bean for the most likely one).
 
I remain confused by suggestions that MTOY may not go through with it, or that he doesn't find much off the bridle. It is a fact that he comes out as the best horse at the weights in every single one of his outings - including his seconds behind The New One and Chatterbox.
 
12 declared

My Tent Or Yours
Jezki
Un Atout
Dodging Bullets
Champagne Fever
River Maigue
Puffin Billy
Pique Sous
Cause of Causes
Cheltenian
Fire King
Ostentation
 
I backed River Maigue at 10s without MTOY, and think Champagne Fever the other one to back e/w. The ground and strong pace and stiff track (which he hasn't had all season) will be perfect for him, and can't see him out of the places.
 
Hamm said:
I backed River Maigue at 10s without MTOY, and think Champagne Fever the other one to back e/w. The ground and strong pace and stiff track (which he hasn't had all season) will be perfect for him, and can't see him out of the places.
Click to expand...

River Maigue doesn't want soft ground and his form isn't good enough in any case. Champagne Fever is just running in the wrong race. Best two lays in the race.
 
River Maigue hasn't as yet any distinct ground preferences - 2 of his 3 runs were effectively sprints, and he won very impressively on heavy at Kempton. It will be much better fresh ground tomorrow so he should go perfectly well in it.

Champagne Fever is running in the right race. A strongly run 2m on soft ground is absolutely perfect for this horse, and he hasn't had these conditions all season, despite running very well.

With both these runners, you seem to be falling into the trap of trying to find the winner by looking at achievements to date - the Supreme winners is always about looking at who is the most likely improver off their current base form (relative to their price), and that is how I arrived at these 2 horses. I may well be wrong, but I won't be wrong for the reasons you have suggested.
 
chroniclandlord said:
Rotten few days for the Scott stable.
Click to expand...

I heard over the w/e that there was a rumour the yard had a bug but when I asked was told MR had so far escaped - looks like he didn't. :( Real bummer for the yard - the only thing you can say is that good job it came to light now and they didn't run him with it and do permanent damage. Hes a nice horse who can only improve with age.
 
River Maigue is so easily held by dodging bullets that it is suprising that they are so close in the market
 
Clive, that was his first run over hurdles and Dodging Bullets 3rd or 4th (can't remember off hand) and the market was pretty clear beforehand that River Maigue wasn't fully wound up.

It would be like saying Taquin du Seuil is better than MTOY, if you get me.
 
Henderson has them right to run both in terms of hurdling and fitness first time out. He has a massive amount to make up with DB who isn't looking a world beater anyway Also the form of his Kempton race is rubbish.

It's a no bet race for me. The fav has a terrific profile for me but not being much nterested in short prices full stop, hes too short to back
 
With both these runners, you seem to be falling into the trap of trying to find the winner by looking at achievements to date[/QUOTE]

Yes, I am falling into the trap of evaluating horses on what they have achieved so far and deciding if they have any chance in this race. River Maigue has posted one decent run (still not good enough to figure here) in a slowly run race. There is no substance to anything else. Nothing to suggest Champagne Fever is a two-miler on his bumper runs or any of his runs this season, stiff course or otherwise. I would strongly suggest his performances this season have been well short of his bumper efforts because he has been consistently campaigned over the wrong trip. Everything about him suggests he is a stayer. I think it is worth repeating the point that he has yet to overtake another horse. He is running here purely because the owner refused to have two runners in one race, not because this race suits him best. Why else would they have been contemplating a race over another mile?
 
2 questions for you on Champagne Fever:

1. Why would he need to overtake another horse if he leads from the get go?
2. Have you considered the fact he may not need to overtake another horse here to run well or even win?
 
Disappointed Melodic Rendezvous goes for the longer race.

William Hill are top price against Pique Sous (20/1) and paying five places in a twelve runner field. That will do for me.
 
Back
Top