Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

reet hard said:
The Cheltenham Bumper is essentially a stayer's race (no hurdles to break up the pace) which is why winners (such as Dunguib) don't perform too well in the Supreme.
While he might stay further in time, Jezki is basically a speed horse, and ran well in the bumper until stamina became an issue.
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A refreshing view.
 
1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Puffin Billy

I edited my selections after watching Un Atout's 2 hurdle wins.

To be honest I hadn't bothered before as I hadn't any great interest in the race.

Now I have I can see why Davy Russell is so keen on his chances.

I realise he's beat nothing but talk about pi$$ing up the thing was never out of a hack canter at any stage in either race.

Gawd only knows how far he'd have won by if Davy Russell had let out an inch of reign.

There's good odds on winners and there's good odds on winner
This horse looks something else a really awesome prospect.

Of course he has still to do what we know MTOY can
but he looks a real speedy charachter travels with so much ease
I would have to think MTOY could have a lot more on his plate than the betting would suggest.

I've made him my selection hoping he'll be there at the finishing and outgun MTOY who I still wouldn't trust in a finish

Originally I was Dutching on MTOY and Jezki but managed to get out of Jezki (Reet makes a valid point about him but it could have been down to immaturity and not lack of staying power as he suggests) but it got me thinking so if Un Tout wins thanks in advance Reet;)

Now I am Dutching on Un Tout and MTOY and will win a couple of hundred quid more if Un Tout wins

Be happy enough if AP is right and I'm wrong but Un Tout and Davy Russell will be very hard to beat IMO
 
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Only with one firm Hamm you can have 9/2 I'm on the phone to my bookie pal right now who is trying to get me a large ew bet at 4/1 W/O about Un Atout and he's been offered 7/2 by one of them'''''these c**** want to get their licence taken off them if they can't take a decent bet at one of the worlds worlds biggest meetings
 
Except PP who's game ;).......Another bet that interests me is a match bet Fever V Un Utot

I really don't understand the money for Champagne Fever he got stuffed twice and then beat Bright New Dawn by under 2 lengths and he was an unfancied 66/1 shot for this.

Walsh and Mullins fever at its worst. anything approach evens for Un Utout is stealing money IMO
 
I don't understand what you're not seeing. CF is battle hardened and a Grade A horse. UA who I like loads is really inexperienced. Perhaps punters are stupid enough (see the Sortinglife verdict - idiot) to believe Walsh had the choice but I believe in the sophistication of the market. They're right - CF has a MASSIVE chance.
 
SlimChance said:
I don't understand what you're not seeing. CF is battle hardened and a Grade A horse. UA who I like loads is really inexperienced. Perhaps punters are stupid enough (see the Sortinglife verdict - idiot) to believe Walsh had the choice but I believe in the sophistication of the market. They're right - CF has a MASSIVE chance.
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Exactly. And most of all, he needs a strong pace and this race will be the first time this season he will get it. The ground and pace will be an enormous help.
 
Hamm said:
Exactly. And most of all, he needs a strong pace and this race will be the first time this season he will get it. The ground and pace will be an enormous help.
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It sounds like you are trying to convince yourselves by repeating the same arguments over and over again.
 
Jezki
My Tent or Yours
Cheltenian

in that order.

I think 25/1 Cheltenian with Hills 5 places is worth a speculative bet, there are concerns but I think the price, with 5 places, is too big.
 
Tanlic said:
Except PP who's game ;).......Another bet that interests me is a match bet Fever V Un Utot

I really don't understand the money for Champagne Fever he got stuffed twice and then beat Bright New Dawn by under 2 lengths and he was an unfancied 66/1 shot for this.

Walsh and Mullins fever at its worst. anything approach evens for Un Utout is stealing money IMO
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Perhaps people have missed it but the day Jezki beat CF he was getting 3lbs and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths.... With the hill to help I'd give him half a chance of reversing the form and the 5 places with Hills was too good to ignore...
 
Champagne Fever into 4s with William Hill, presumably down to the place concession. 6s everywhere else. Some gambles from the start of last weekend (16s).
 
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past 11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Puffin Billy, Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets the best of the rest.

Selections:
1) My Tent Or Yours 2) Un Atout 3) Puffin Billy 4) Champagne Fever e.w. 5) Dodging Bullets

Previous winners
2012 Cinders And Ashes 5 10/1
2011 Al Ferof 6 10/1
2010 Menorah 5 12/1
2009 Go Native 6 12/1
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 17/2
2007 Ebaziyan 6 40/1
2006 Noland 5 6/1
2005 Arcalis 5 20/1
2004 Brave Inca 6 7/2 fav
2003 Back In Front 6 3/1 fav
2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 7/4 fav
 
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I'm hoping to see MTOY being Harchibaldesque today. Want to see him swinging on the bridal in about fourth or fifth, two out. I'm going to lay the hell out of him in the place market at that point as I'm not sure that hill won't find him out. Has been a bridle horse so far, and if he is to win today, he will be made to do so and I think he may come up short at that point.
 
Split stakes on Jezki/Champagne Fever with a saver on Cheltenian.Mixed feelings about Jezki-nominated on here at 40s after he won his maiden.
 
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