Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

Champagne Fever may have his knickers but the market has worked it out. He has a massive chance.
 
IF the ground is truly soft ground, and Ruby sets on down the hill, there won't be many who will go with him. The 11/2 w/o e/w is cracking value. I'd rather that than 8s with MTOY (if he does turn out to be a superstar).
 
Fair shout. It's not impossible he could go off 11/2 - 13/2 with MTOY in the market. In all his races he looks so genuine. He's so hard to pass and isn't beat when he is. 6/1 e/w with Hills guaranteed 5 places is a free bet.
 
Hamm said:
2 questions for you on Champagne Fever:

1. Why would he need to overtake another horse if he leads from the get go?
2. Have you considered the fact he may not need to overtake another horse here to run well or even win?
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On all known evidence he needs to lead. The small field is to his advantage and whether he gets the lead depends on whether Davy Russell wants to take him on. Un Atout also wants a longer trip but my guess is he will sit second. The disadvantage for Champagne Fever would be his jumping has previously been pretty ponderous and I just don't see him having sufficient speed to maintain an advantage. Some people are trying to compare his chance with Al Ferof but that was a totally different scenario with the race falling apart in front of him.
 
Agree completely with treetangle. Champagne Fever would go close in either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett but this isn't his trip and I find it really hard to see him winning this.
 
Gus
That is an almost universal view but for me if this is his only run at the meeting then I want him to win. Ground like it is might help but still I see Jezki beating if the latter gets up the hill.
 
Categorically for me he should be in the Neptune but nowt will beat Pont Alexandre- they believe. So do I in fact.
 
Hamm said:
Why did Jezki not run better last Cheltenham?
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I don't remember hearing connections making excuses at the time. What is obvious since then is that he is a better hurdler than he was a bumper animal.

Has excited me in all his races this term. Looks an absolutely cracking renewal. I think he has the class to do it tomorrow.
 
In massive agreement with tout and granger,looks all class to me.only unknown is the hill for me.smallish field will suit,two grade ones.cant get away from him.Think he will out kick the favourite and he has the beating of CF.
 
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I'm still of the opinion that MTOY wants a stronger pace to be seen at his best, though I don't think he'll be particularly troubled whatever the pace is in the Supreme.

McCoy is very effusive about the horse; clearly believing in the Betfair Hurdle form, he will go on the ground, and you would need to be Fagin reincarnate, to rate him any lower than 155 - which would be good enough to win most runnings of the race.

The track is the only question-mark, imo, but he could end-up making people feel like they'd stupidly-ignred the bleedin' obvious.
 
Jezki's last Cheltenham run is a concern but connections believe they ran him too soon after bumper win at Leopardstown and think he was effectively over the top

If you believe that, he's an outstanding each way bet....
 
The Cheltenham Bumper is essentially a stayer's race (no hurdles to break up the pace) which is why winners (such as Dunguib) don't perform too well in the Supreme.
While he might stay further in time, Jezki is basically a speed horse, and ran well in the bumper until stamina became an issue.
 
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