Royal Ascot

Hamm said:
Very impressive though agree Gareth, a poor ride.
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During the race I thought that Buick had done the wrong thing too, but after hearing Buick and Gosden afterwards he was actually brave enough to change the game plan. The plan was to hold her up and keep her out of the strong headwind, but she’s headstrong like her sire and got away fast. Rather than frustrate her Buick went with it and allowed her to stretch them. So it was actually a very good piece of improvisation. Even though they fully intended to ride her differently Gosden was at pains to praise Buick’s decision.

She is no doubt even better than she appeared and was entitled to be tying up at the death.
 
Agree with gamila stan on the botti horse in the hardwick. Has some rock solid form and just gets the vote ahead of memphis tennesse for me, although the way the weeks gone no surprise if that decision bites me on the arse! Fancy dandy boy e/w in the wokingham, and all this talk of marnane has made me that bit more confident.
 
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Flame said:
I know many people won't give him a chance, but I guarantee any of you if you have a decent bet on Calico Cat tomorrow at 50/1 you will not be disappointed. It's soft ground now and chances of being heavy tomorrow. He is improving all the time and is a different horse now to when he hated the ground at York and jarred himself up. He breezed nicely this morning and he is absolutely bouncing. Feeling the wet all weather today he tanked up there and then he was loving the wet walkways home. When he feels the wet, he wakes up and comes to life and I am not remotely worried about anything in the field tomorrow and I would be absolutely devastated if he was not in the first three. Paul Hanagan wanted the ride (He turned it down at Chester !) and must have five or six calls all week saying how much he wanted the ride and was offered 2 other rides in the race. This horse has about 10lb to find with some of these, but not all this field want soft ground and this lad really does. If it takes them back 4-6lb , and we know he has improved a good 10lb since his last run (didn't even run to his ability cause he hated the ground) then I have no doubt in my mind he is capable of running to 120-125 tomorrow. I will stress I have ridden a lot of group 1 horses in my life, but no horse I have ever ridden which includes, Tobougg, Zafeen, Queens Logic, Flashy Wings and Barathea Guest give me anywhere near as good a feel as this fella does and he is without any shadow of doubt the best horse I have ever ridden. He will not only prove tomorrow you should never write off a horse because it gets injured and written off, but that if you give horses time and a chance you will be rewarded. This horse goes there with no pressure on him tomorrow and he might be the outsider of the pack, but trust me he'll love the ground, he is good enough, he's improving, has one of the best jockeys in the world on him who believes the horse can win and trust me there may be a few people who think he doesn't belong in that field tomorrow, and there might be a lot of critics who still think he has been flattered and all that bollocks, but tomorrow those critics and judges are gonna have to sit back and finally give the horse the respect he deserves, because today is the eve of the Dawn of the Cat, and I'm telling you now he really will put a cat amongst the pigeons tomorrow and I honestly will be absolutely gutted if he isn't in the first three and I would be shocked if he doesn't win. I am that confident, not because I own 50% of him, and not because I ride him everyday, but I believe in the horse and I know exactly how good he is, and tomorrow we'll take our talking to the track, and we will go out the underdog but WE WILL come back victorious. You can doubt him all you want but you have been told and warned, this is no flash in the pan, this is no one race wonder fluke horse, he is a bloody good horse and a group 1 horse, who has a heart the size of a Lion and doesn't know what the words give up mean, and he will win tomorrow and he'll turn a lot of heads in the process doing so.
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66/1 & 1/3 odds place with Corals, 25/1 with Ladbrokes, good luck!
 
Aiken might be the most underpriced horse of the week. Had the run of the race last time out and I expect Dunaden to reverse that form. Sea Moon at around 7/2 is a good bet.
 
I'm confused by why people think Homecoming Queen is some kind of exceptional guineas winner or a fluke winnner..her win in the guineas was a solid average 1000g effort on the clock..nothing else..the fact that the others underperformed isn't her fault..she wasn't 9 length superior to an average 2nd in a 1000g...they underperformed behind her

it wasn't a fluke..just because the others failed to run..many 1000g winners don't win after..if people confuse 9 lengths superiority due to underperforming oppo with fluke then fair enough..it would still have taken a decent horse to beat her at Newmarket..but she isn't any world beater
 
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I think it's not too difficult to believe the others underperformed. It's the margin by which they're reckoned to have underperformed. Nine lengths is an awful long way and HQ's time was a good one on the day.

Just as winners of certain races sometimes take longer than average to recover their form - and some never do - I'm more inclined to believe that this is what we're dealing with.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think it's not too difficult to believe the others underperformed. It's the margin by which they're reckoned to have underperformed. Nine lengths is an awful long way and HQ's time was a good one on the day.

Just as winners of certain races sometimes take longer than average to recover their form - and some never do - I'm more inclined to believe that this is what we're dealing with.
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it wasn't an exceptional time though..not 9 lengths superior to an average winner

i do think the waiting around before the race adversely affected the outcome tbh

if you think about it..it would only need to affect a few of them to leave that 9 length void...if you stick 2 horses in there it would look way different..if the two that were capable of placing have been affected by the hold up then it makes sense
 
EC1 said:
it wasn't an exceptional time though..not 9 lengths superior to an average winner
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I'd certainly never try and argue that she was 9 lengths better than an average winner. Maybe 9 lengths better than the average runner (a conservative OR of 100, say?) Even so, this would put her well into the 120s. I've only got her on 117 for the Guineas.

Where did Starscope finish the other day? No matter how you look at it, Homecoming Queen should have been in front of her the other day, shouldn't she? Even if the Guineas was a weird race, would a weird race account for a turnaround of something like 30 lengths? It's not as if it were three-mile chases on soft at Uttoxeter compared with firm at Kempton.
 
She needed everything in her favour to run to 120 (backed up by the time). 10lbs+ better than anything else she's done (given a lot of chances) but you're right EC - there's no suggestion (from me anyway) that she's some kind of superfilly.
 
Its great to see the passion, enthusiasm and all the other qualities expressed in Chris's post. Many people will go through life with experiencing the feelings that Chris has now yet alone the potential take- off that would come with a win. I really hope Calico Cat goes well and will be cheering him on. Get in there!!!!

Little jumps out for me on what is normally an enjoyable and profitable day. Thus, having given up my place for the third day in a row, I've gone for some outsiders.

Pepper Lane 4.25 certainly qualifies as an outsider (i got 130/1 last night). Went zooming up in the weights after some very good performances such as when beating Our Jonathan last year. Poor since he has his ground today and is only 5lb worse off than that performance. King of Jazz is my alternative.
Cill Rialaig 5.00 Generally goes well here and has been dropping back to a weight at which she can win. Alt: Right Step
Think Cloudy Spirit 5.30 is overpriced
Thrown in a couple of small yankees ,one with the alternatives in, that include Calico Cat.
 
If New Approach turns out as good as he looks like being at this stage the boys in blue could be back big time. In Classics and Arcs I mean, not just the odd Gold Cup/Group 2 nonsense.
 
the problemwith Godolphin are the trainer and the owner
they have the best evts, grooms, jockeys
top class broodmares
Dubawi, Shamardal, New Approach, Street Cry, Manduro, Bernardini.....
and they dont have even runners in teh big races

a pity to see the amunition expended
Sheikh Mohammed should phone Khallid Abdullah and ask him what to do with all those.
 
Originally Posted by Flame
I know many people won't give him a chance, but I guarantee any of you if you have a decent bet on Calico Cat tomorrow at 50/1 you will not be disappointed. It's soft ground now and chances of being heavy tomorrow. He is improving all the time and is a different horse now to when he hated the ground at York and jarred himself up. He breezed nicely this morning and he is absolutely bouncing. Feeling the wet all weather today he tanked up there and then he was loving the wet walkways home. When he feels the wet, he wakes up and comes to life and I am not remotely worried about anything in the field tomorrow and I would be absolutely devastated if he was not in the first three. Paul Hanagan wanted the ride (He turned it down at Chester !) and must have five or six calls all week saying how much he wanted the ride and was offered 2 other rides in the race. This horse has about 10lb to find with some of these, but not all this field want soft ground and this lad really does. If it takes them back 4-6lb , and we know he has improved a good 10lb since his last run (didn't even run to his ability cause he hated the ground) then I have no doubt in my mind he is capable of running to 120-125 tomorrow. I will stress I have ridden a lot of group 1 horses in my life, but no horse I have ever ridden which includes, Tobougg, Zafeen, Queens Logic, Flashy Wings and Barathea Guest give me anywhere near as good a feel as this fella does and he is without any shadow of doubt the best horse I have ever ridden. He will not only prove tomorrow you should never write off a horse because it gets injured and written off, but that if you give horses time and a chance you will be rewarded. This horse goes there with no pressure on him tomorrow and he might be the outsider of the pack, but trust me he'll love the ground, he is good enough, he's improving, has one of the best jockeys in the world on him who believes the horse can win and trust me there may be a few people who think he doesn't belong in that field tomorrow, and there might be a lot of critics who still think he has been flattered and all that bollocks, but tomorrow those critics and judges are gonna have to sit back and finally give the horse the respect he deserves, because today is the eve of the Dawn of the Cat, and I'm telling you now he really will put a cat amongst the pigeons tomorrow and I honestly will be absolutely gutted if he isn't in the first three and I would be shocked if he doesn't win. I am that confident, not because I own 50% of him, and not because I ride him everyday, but I believe in the horse and I know exactly how good he is, and tomorrow we'll take our talking to the track, and we will go out the underdog but WE WILL come back victorious. You can doubt him all you want but you have been told and warned, this is no flash in the pan, this is no one race wonder fluke horse, he is a bloody good horse and a group 1 horse, who has a heart the size of a Lion and doesn't know what the words give up mean, and he will win tomorrow and he'll turn a lot of heads in the process doing so.

Bloody good luck today flame,everyone in my house will be shouting the cat on!
 
2nd race ...better markers....produces a Good ground time..not unlike Tuesday...Stickels was right :blink:

just thought..they didn't go a strong pace in the first..horses pulling etc
 
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Hard luck to Chris with Calico Cat, who didn't seem to go the early pace but at least stayed on.

Starting to get worrying how many of the Ballydoyle horses have stopped to a walk in the last couple of days.

Sea Moon looking like the horse he promised to be in the Voltigeur, but are they sure he's not a Montjeu with that head carriage??
 
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