Royal Ascot

brendanr said:
I'm a big Soumillon fan and think you're quite harsh about yesterday because anybody in the know about that particular horse knows she is very difficult out of the gates and essentially that race was lost at the start. It was never the plan to be that far back. On a whole though I think as backed up by your stats (even if I think they are a bit skewed) Ascot is probably the track Soumi rides poorest anywhere.
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How can you possibly say it wasn't the plan to be that far back in what was a slow pace? Getting closer early doors would have been an easy thing to do.

I would suggest he was where he wanted to be.

In the cold light of day the more I watch it the worse the ride looks. In fact now I've really looked at it I'd go as far as say it was a horrendous ride.

Rizeena is only a couple of length in front of him. Moore gets into the drive position asks the filly to quicken approaching the 2 furlong marker. He's fully animated for at least 12-15 strides and takes 4 lengths out of Soumillon's mount before he wakes up gets himself animated and realize he's f***** up.

Go and watch the race again and tell me if anything I have said is wrong.

If a horse has a kink in it's armour a jockey should make allowances for it and ride accordingly not sit there like he's on Nijinsky.
 
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The punters will be out to get a good start with SMS's Arab Spring today but the 8lb penalty he carries for his York win makes him poor value at 3/1.

The horse he beat at York was rated 95 and he won by 3/4 of a length. at least a dozen of today's opponents are rated above 95 and look in a different class to the opposition he faced at york.

Can't help but think there will be a couple in there who can beat him.

Mick Channon has only had 2 runners to date one of which ran much better than could be expected.

His Elidor is an improving sort, is said to have worked out of his skin the other day and could make the best of the 5 plus 3lbs he gets from Stouty's to put Mick Channon on the Ascot scoreboard.

He looks sure to go close and 12/1 looks a fair price and you always have the option to save your stake by backing him to finish in the first 5 on the machine.

Elidor 14.5 on Betfair
 
Can't get my head round the first race today. Too many unknowns and others likely to improve out of all recognition.

According to Frankie Estimate went past Hillstar like he was a tree on the gallops the other day which doesn't inspire confidence in him.

If reports are to be believed nothing works better than Telescope at home. The problem is it must he hard to say when he's 100% if he does it very easily and he keeps going off at short prices and very seldom brings his gallop performances to the racecourse.

He did show improvement last time getting closer to Noble Mission but was still put firmly in his place.

It's still the best form in the race but again he's no value.

I'll take a chance with Eye of The Storm who for some reason better known to AOB is taking this drop down in trip.

Eye of the Storm 12.0 on Betfair
 
Oisin Murphy, the best young jockey since Lester Piggott, who won Wokingham as a 16-year-old in 1952, gets his first real chance of the week to strut his stuff on Ian Balding's Absolutely So and emulate the maestro by winning this at a tender age.

He rides Absolutely so for Ian Balding who has run well all season but it was't until last time out he showed his real potential. The race was over 7 furlongs but that is of little concern as Oisin Murphy could have taken over at any stage and left them all for dead.

Absolutely so has gone up 8lbs but won so easily the performance merited much more.

These race are sometimes won by the luck of the draw so I usually don't bet in them but apart from having massive confidence in Oisin Murphy's ability this is a cracking horse from whom the best is yet to come.

Absloutely SO (Nap) 14/1 Betfair (7/2 for a place)
 
Alben Star (Wokingham) was almost knocked over 2 ago, then baulked when making his run, yet still finished fast enough to be only half a length behind today's fav Ninjago. Ignore his last run (he's never been any good over 5f) and the general 16/1 looks generous.
Slade Power (D. Jubilee) improved all last season, and the way he trounced Maarek in that horse's ideal circumstances suggests he's progressed again this. Bet of the meeting, imo.
 
Tanlic said:
The punters will be out to get a good start with SMS's Arab Spring today but the 8lb penalty he carries for his York win makes him poor value at 3/1.

The horse he beat at York was rated 95 and he won by 3/4 of a length. at least a dozen of today's opponents are rated above 95 and look in a different class to the opposition he faced at york.

Can't help but think there will be a couple in there who can beat him.

Mick Channon has only had 2 runners to date one of which ran much better than could be expected.

His Elidor is an improving sort, is said to have worked out of his skin the other day and could make the best of the 5 plus 3lbs he gets from Stouty's to put Mick Channon on the Ascot scoreboard.

He looks sure to go close and 12/1 looks a fair price and you always have the option to save your stake by backing him to finish in the first 5 on the machine.

Elidor 14.5 on Betfair
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If it weren't for Groundbreaking's presence I'd be very keen on Elidor but I think the Godolphin beast will hack up.
 
Tanlic said:
How can you possibly say it wasn't the plan to be that far back in what was a slow pace? Getting closer early doors would have been an easy thing to do.

I would suggest he was where he wanted to be.

In the cold light of day the more I watch it the worse the ride looks. In fact now I've really looked at it I'd go as far as say it was a horrendous ride.

Rizeena is only a couple of length in front of him. Moore gets into the drive position asks the filly to quicken approaching the 2 furlong marker. He's fully animated for at least 12-15 strides and takes 4 lengths out of Soumillon's mount before he wakes up gets himself animated and realize he's f***** up.

Go and watch the race again and tell me if anything I have said is wrong.

If a horse has a kink in it's armour a jockey should make allowances for it and ride accordingly not sit there like he's on Nijinsky.
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Fist, you're spouting your opinion as fact. You do that a lot from the far away shores of Thailand. In this case I know more than you do and don't really care what you think you saw.
 
Already have a small possie on Astaire and have topped up this morning. 10/1 is very fair although Slade Power is respected. I think Aljamaheer might be the worst odds of the week.

Back on a fast surface Telescope is worth a go at 5/2. Even though he has been a shade disappointing on soft ground the actual form of those races with Noble Mission has worked out well.
 
brendanr said:
Fist, you're spouting your opinion as fact. You do that a lot from the far away shores of Thailand. In this case I know more than you do and don't really care what you think you saw.
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Considering I have full access to view every race run in the UK Ireland and the USA I don't see what being in Thailand has to do with anything....Please enlighten me while I wait to hear from you on which part of my analysis I got it wrong.

As for you knowing more than me.........Unless you spoke to the jockey you don't know sh1t more than anyone
 
JamesRB said:
Yeah I've backed Telescope. For the reasons Euro said and I think it's a pretty weak race.
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I'll be sick as a parrot if he does win having touted the horse all last season.

I can see him winning for the reason you state but if he wins like they say he works I'll be surprised.

What puts me off backing him is they made excuses for him first time out,, he was reported to have come on a ton, the money was down despite having been beaten 7 lengths by Noble Mission and he's beaten by the same horse again.

Maybe he is better on better ground but it didn't stop SMS running him for a second time on soft nor did it stop them backing him on it.

He's just too short in the market and I'd rather risk one getting placed with the possibly of a good lift than having my shirt on him to win.
 
Toscanini has a good look in the first

Hamelin in the hcp , main dangers Groundbreaking and the 2 Hamdam horses

Telescope not a price but slightly better than the rest of the field that is quite tight


Slade Power should win, the main danger could Darwin back on his ground

Baccarat, Absloutely and Seeking Magic in the Wokhingham
 
Nocturnal affair in the wokingham for me
Have come to this conclusion on the very detailed basis that Tom Segal once said to always back David Marnane in big sprint handicaps
 
Tanlic said:
Maybe he is better on better ground but it didn't stop SMS running him for a second time on soft nor did it stop them backing him on it.
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I think he's better on a decent surface based on his Voltigeur run, but even if he isn't his form behind Noble Mission last time out (franked by both the winner and Magician on Wednesday) may well be good enough.
 
The sectionals will be interesting for that opener. To the naked eye (mine anyway) it looked like the winner's superiority might be exaggerated with those that chased the pace slowing up dramatically.

It's at times like this I miss my old VCR. You could put these races on fast forward and the changes of pace were always much more noticeable.
 
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Groundbreaking has a big weight rise to contend with but I was impressed with his last performance and his price could look silly if he backs that up. E/W bet for me at the prices.
 
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