Royal Ascot

Euro Charline and J Wonder the same price as Lucky Kristale on the machine FFS! A trial winner and an unlucky trial loser (and fifth in Guineas!) against a horse which hasn't trained on and doesn't stay. Madness.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
Do your 'take the winner out' thing and the fav Adelaide has won that fairly comfortably. Very exciting horse; Gosden seems ready to drop him into something like the King George.
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Yes, that occurred to me. Same with the opener. Take the winner out and the 'big two' would have had the finish between them.

Well done SteveM & PTP with Rizeena.
 
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Nice one Steve..great ride by Moore.....my jockey left the clock for his head in France :0( Thought he was never going to ask her to pick up
 
Don't agree it was a bit ride by Soumillon personally, she just looked slow and took an age to pick up. I'd backed her heavily myself too.
 
I'm just having a little bet on the filly in the next. Looks like a decently bred filly and in receipt of the allowance against the boys. Beat nothing but obviously was thought a lot of and probably protected after initially being beaten by Taghrooda by 6 lengths which has obviously gone on. Haggas had a few winners these last two days and whilst up against it there is enough in the positive column to have a little dabble. Probably get smashed but just something nagging at me that he wouldn't have left it in unless he felt it had a good chance.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Don't agree it was a bit ride by Soumillon personally, she just looked slow and took an age to pick up. I'd backed her heavily myself too.
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You must have missed him tucking her in behind and sitting motionless just as they hit the 2 furlong marker..That in hindsight was the wrong thing to do as it had been a slow run race that turned into a sprint..

But your point is valid but I think he was over confident was expecting her to pick up immediately and was left with egg on his face.
Run it again and he'd definitely go sooner now he knows what he knows about the horse.

I didn't mean to be that critical it was a bit tongue in cheek.

As we say Sh!t happens


Look at William Buick, he had the exact opposite happen to him earlier on Eagle Top when he picked up out of his hands and flew.......said himself he was really surprised how quickly he did it. Then he took pull to straighten him and then he quickened again and left decent horses struggling in his wake.

Mr Buick will be Arc dreaming tonight after that and AOB will be counting his blessing the horse wasn't fit to run in the Derby.;)
 
Gamla Stan said:
Don't agree it was a bit ride by Soumillon personally, she just looked slow and took an age to pick up. I'd backed her heavily myself too.
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Soumillon just can't ride Ascot very well ..his stats are poor

3/48
A/E = 0.41

he wins just 41% of races he should win according to the chance of the horse

broken down a bit..

on horses priced 2/1 to 9/2 he has won 1/11
on horses priced 5/1 - 9/1 he has won 0/11

so with horses that have a reasonable chance of winning..he's won 1/22

includes the shocker yesterday

i don't back his mounts at Ascot...and i don't even bother usually about jocks too much


well done PTP

stats courtesy of Flatstats
 
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I am baffled by what they are doing with Montiridge. Running in The Jubilee tomorrow. Am I missing something?
 
EC1 said:
Soumillon just can't ride Ascot very well ..his stats are poor

3/48
A/E = 0.41

he wins just 41% of races he should win according to the chance of the horse

broken down a bit..

on horses priced 2/1 to 9/2 he has won 1/11
on horses priced 5/1 - 9/1 he has won 0/11

so with horses that have a reasonable chance of winning..he's won 1/22

includes the shocker yesterday

i don't back his mounts at Ascot...and i don't even bother usually about jocks too much


well done PTP
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I'm a big Soumillon fan and think you're quite harsh about yesterday because anybody in the know about that particular horse knows she is very difficult out of the gates and essentially that race was lost at the start. It was never the plan to be that far back. On a whole though I think as backed up by your stats (even if I think they are a bit skewed) Ascot is probably the track Soumi rides poorest anywhere.
 
those figures are telling though Brendan...they aren't no hopers he's ridden.

its not unusual for jockeys to struggle at certain courses..there are some surprising under performers at many tracks..its not knocking him..its just being aware that if you back him at 3/1 then he will only win about 10% of the time...remarkably poor value.....which we all need to be aware of i think
 
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EC1 said:
those figures are telling though Brendan...they aren't no hopers he's ridden.

its not unusual for jockeys to struggle at certain courses..there are some surprising under performers at many tracks..its not knocking him..its just being aware that if you back him at 3/1 then he will only win about 10% of the time...remarkably poor value.....which we all need to be aware of i think
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I don't disagree with it and did not in any way see it as knocking him but the fact he is riding shaves one or two point off his odds regardless of the horse's chances. The horse he rode today was available at 14/1 in the morning. The risk reward was much to my liking. Definitely agree that jockey stats for certain tracks are very telling.
 
Soumillon is riding very well this year but yesterday and today bad rides.
Also lost the champion with cirrus after kicking too late.
 
sunybay said:
Soumillon is riding very well this year but yesterday and today bad rides.
Also lost the champion with cirrus after kicking too late.
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Don't agree about yesterday as stated above and even today would not classify it as a bad ride either. Horse just wasn't good enough to accelerate when it mattered.
 
Any chance of some rain before tomorrow. Have a big price about Astaire, albeit for a fivespot but I fancy him in a tough race.
 
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