I know... when I said you I intended it to include everyone.
Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced
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I know... when I said you I intended it to include everyone.
Sheikh
At the Start
Asked a friend what he reckoned the going was like at the moment just to check if I was going mad he reckoned "the easy side of heavy"
. We're ten minutes away. I can't believe 'good' is in the discription. I suppose they could have avoided the monsoon like showers we've been having but it's unlikely. I'll check it myself on Sunday.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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Yes he has strong stamina potential. He also has a high cruising speed at 10 furlongs. I have never claimed that he is a miler. But I do know he is capable of running to a significant rating over a fast run 10.
Like I say he has a wide distance aptitude.
People said the same of Sariska
I'm willing to bet Fame won't be in season though.
I hope so too. He'll need to be at his best to cope with Fame.
Asked a friend what he reckoned the going was like at the moment just to check if I was going mad he reckoned "the easy side of heavy"
They had 1mm of rain yesterday and last night. Leopardstown is a freak of a racecourse - has it's own microclimate during the summer and dries by far the best of any track in Ireland. If it was The Curragh giving this description I would have serious doubts - but Leopardstown and the team there are pretty straight up.
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Sheikh
At the Start
In fairness,it doesn't tend to get truly heavy anymore, just softish. and there's a strip up the middle rolling towards the stand side at the finish which good ground horses go up. Jumbajukiba doesn't go well there which tells a story......loves the Curragh.
If he is at his best F & G would be much better going for the Prix Niel
Wouldn't have it any other way. I want STS at his best and a bit... then we'll see.
I fear his £40-50 million price tag would be halved after meeting Fame though... and I'm pretty sure Oxx feels the same way. So I can't really see the match coming off... hope I'm wrong about that though.
How stale would this thread be if Steve was not around! Good stuff Mr Miller…Shamardal days indeed! For those not around back then, Steve ranted and raved about Shamardal through his two year old season with plenty on the forum making a few quid thanks to it.
Yes but in the Shamardal days it was based on firm evidence - this is just a hunch and hope . On fast ground over 12f admittedly not at the fastest pace STS was way too quick for F & G - there are no evidential grounds to believe that over 10f that F & G will somehow acquire some wings that will enable him to beat STS a horse that was running on much the best of a very fast run Juddmonte over half a furlong longer - how that can possibly be gleaned from winning in style an Irish Derby against a weak field on soft ground beats me .
In his 3 year old days Shamardal was pretty dazzling and had he not suffered an injury would surely have smacked Oratorio and Motivator in the Eclipse in some style. Mr Miller got heavily stuck in to Shamardal in the St James's Palace at York when he had Oratorio way behind and sharing the champagne with him was a pleasure .
In his 3 year old days Shamardal was pretty dazzling and had he not suffered an injury would surely have smacked Oratorio and Motivator in the Eclipse in some style. Mr Miller got heavily stuck in to Shamardal in the St James's Palace at York when he had Oratorio way behind and sharing the champagne with him was a pleasure .
No chance - F & G has only one hope of beating STS and that is if the real STS doesn't turn up due to being over the top.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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Repeating the same argument over and over is not stimulating debate imo.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
I tend to agree with David.
There are only so many ways that you can say the same thing and that milestone was passed a couple of pages back.
There are only so many ways that you can say the same thing and that milestone was passed a couple of pages back.
EC1
On a break
I haven't yet read why Steve is so convinced that F&G can turn the Derby form round ...just saying he has a broad distance range.. if they go fast ..is actually an illogical argument based on nothing to do with distance requirement whatsover
basically..Steve believes F&G is pegasus but doesn't know why
so whilst I admire his faith..his actual case to be made adds up to a grand total of nil reasons..which hasn't really stimulated much variety of chat..bar those that disagree with him lining up logical argument after logical argument...it is those that have kept the thread going..not just someone saying..F&G is great and wins
basically..Steve believes F&G is pegasus but doesn't know why
so whilst I admire his faith..his actual case to be made adds up to a grand total of nil reasons..which hasn't really stimulated much variety of chat..bar those that disagree with him lining up logical argument after logical argument...it is those that have kept the thread going..not just someone saying..F&G is great and wins
It is no more boring that stating because one horse has shown the best form to date - no other horse can beat him - full stop. Particularly when a couple of his stablemates have ruffled him up already this season.
I think Sea The Stars probably should and will win this race given most of the conditions are likely to be in his favour. But I respect the fact that team Coolmore have been keen to aim Fame And Glory at this race shortly after his Irish Derby win and have kept to it despite the obviously easier target in Longchamp the following week for the Niel.
EC1
On a break
it would be better though if Steve could put some meat on the bone of why he believes F&G is going to win
i doubt many here think STS will win JUST because he is the best form horse..most races are not won by the best form horse..its whether the form horse can produce his best on the day that has been discussed mainly.
if STS does produce his best..then there really is only one winner...and from what we have seen..there is nothing to suggest anything can beat him
if we want to talk about F&G improving...well the same can be said about STS..he is also open to improvement too..it seems that F&G cuddlers only think their boy has any improvement left and are clinging on to that belief....which is also admitting that without improvement he can't beat STS
i doubt many here think STS will win JUST because he is the best form horse..most races are not won by the best form horse..its whether the form horse can produce his best on the day that has been discussed mainly.
if STS does produce his best..then there really is only one winner...and from what we have seen..there is nothing to suggest anything can beat him
if we want to talk about F&G improving...well the same can be said about STS..he is also open to improvement too..it seems that F&G cuddlers only think their boy has any improvement left and are clinging on to that belief....which is also admitting that without improvement he can't beat STS
davidjohnson
At the Start
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That's what I'm saying isn't it? Whichever side of this debate you come down on, it's been done to death when each party keeps coming out with the same argument which is then countered in the same fashion. Think I'll bow out of this one until the Irish Champion has been run.
It's a watching race.
Personally I can't get too animated about a 2 horse race that still isn't guaranteed to happen at short prices. Like Colin said, no new perspective has emerged for pages and the thread has slowly lost my interest.
I was interested by Steves assertion of "take my word for it" though, and the "evidence of his eyes". I'd probably be more comfortable to do so if Steve was prepared to explain why we should take his word above anybody elses? Has he worked with horses? has he trained them? does he have a line into the yard? has he ever race ridden any? what special insight does he have?
You can invoke Shamadahl if you want, others can remember equally how convinced Steve was about Black Jack Ketchum and he wrote very similarly about him, and even had his form figures tucked into his signature before they were discreetly removed.
I've got my own figures, and the balance of probability is that STS would win, but I certainly give F&G a chance on them. His win at the Curragh was fast, and appreciably more so than the visually more impressive Sariska in the Oaks. 114.41 to par versus 102.00 to par. Once they're calibrated at 12F's that would have been quite a lumpy 18.75L defeat to hand to out, although Sariskas never came under any pressure in the Irish Oaks and would probably have lost a theoretical race by about 12L's.
Going into the Derby there wasn't much between the pair. Adjusted to 9.0 F&G would have run 100.46 on an open Gp1 par in the Derrinstown and Sea The Stars ran 101.76 in the Guineas for a gap of a shade more than 1.25L's in STS's favour. Now adimittedly they weren't the figures i put up at the time, largely because I was trying to project improvement into a horse from a trial to a target race (not unreasonable to assume) and gave the verdict to F&G, but I think they're quite evenly matched in truth, but on terms likely to suit STS's better, you'd have to favour him at this point in the season.
I'm not sure that it's necessarily a sporting gesture on Coolmore's part though, and wouldn't be rushing out to pat them on the back too much in swerving the Niel. They know that they need to beat STS this season with one of their horses in order to try and dispute the claim for leading 3yo and the stud value that this would bring etc Since STS holds the verdict over their only credible challenger they're being forced to meet on his terms. I don't believe it's any more complciated than that.
Personally I can't get too animated about a 2 horse race that still isn't guaranteed to happen at short prices. Like Colin said, no new perspective has emerged for pages and the thread has slowly lost my interest.
I was interested by Steves assertion of "take my word for it" though, and the "evidence of his eyes". I'd probably be more comfortable to do so if Steve was prepared to explain why we should take his word above anybody elses? Has he worked with horses? has he trained them? does he have a line into the yard? has he ever race ridden any? what special insight does he have?
You can invoke Shamadahl if you want, others can remember equally how convinced Steve was about Black Jack Ketchum and he wrote very similarly about him, and even had his form figures tucked into his signature before they were discreetly removed.
I've got my own figures, and the balance of probability is that STS would win, but I certainly give F&G a chance on them. His win at the Curragh was fast, and appreciably more so than the visually more impressive Sariska in the Oaks. 114.41 to par versus 102.00 to par. Once they're calibrated at 12F's that would have been quite a lumpy 18.75L defeat to hand to out, although Sariskas never came under any pressure in the Irish Oaks and would probably have lost a theoretical race by about 12L's.
Going into the Derby there wasn't much between the pair. Adjusted to 9.0 F&G would have run 100.46 on an open Gp1 par in the Derrinstown and Sea The Stars ran 101.76 in the Guineas for a gap of a shade more than 1.25L's in STS's favour. Now adimittedly they weren't the figures i put up at the time, largely because I was trying to project improvement into a horse from a trial to a target race (not unreasonable to assume) and gave the verdict to F&G, but I think they're quite evenly matched in truth, but on terms likely to suit STS's better, you'd have to favour him at this point in the season.
I'm not sure that it's necessarily a sporting gesture on Coolmore's part though, and wouldn't be rushing out to pat them on the back too much in swerving the Niel. They know that they need to beat STS this season with one of their horses in order to try and dispute the claim for leading 3yo and the stud value that this would bring etc Since STS holds the verdict over their only credible challenger they're being forced to meet on his terms. I don't believe it's any more complciated than that.
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chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
That's what we want to hear. Well most of us.
With respect I do know why. I have a knack of seeing potential in how horses run. Fame has built on my expectations of him, improving in every race up to and including the Irish Derby. He has an array of gears off a fast pace (but needs that fast pace). When he has it he is awesome. This is the evidence. More than a belief. There for all to see in the Irish Derby. I can see more unlocked improvement in him than in STS.
So please don't say I don't know why. You are confusing what you know with what I know.
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