If I've had to repeat myself David, it's because I've been asked to. I've been asked to say why I think the colt a real force. I've attempted to address these questions... it's my impression that's what the forum is for. I don't really get you attitude, you never seem to miss a chance to take a pop at me, which is fine if that's what turns you on. It would be nice if you could get past that though... It's easier to knock others than to contribute.
Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
If I've had to repeat myself David, it's because I've been asked to. I've been asked to say why I think the colt a real force. I've attempted to address these questions... it's my impression that's what the forum is for. I don't really get you attitude, you never seem to miss a chance to take a pop at me, which is fine if that's what turns you on. It would be nice if you could get past that though... It's easier to knock others than to contribute.
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davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Steve - sorry if you thought my post was a dig at you. It wasn't intended as that, and if it came across as that I apologise. I also apologise if anything I've said has come across as me having a pop at you personally. Again that hasn't been my intention. I've been happy to disagree with you, infact take a very different view to you, and I'm sure I will do again, as you suggest, a forum would be boring if we all just agreed with each other.
I just hope Fame And Glory will prove to be as good as you think he will, because if that's the case, we're in for a cracking couple of months.
No problem with the need for different opinions Steve, and FWIW I think F&G is a damned sight closer to STS than is widely being imagined. I've just got a slight allergy against people with no direct background who rely on the evidence of their own eyes though, based alsmost exclusively on a friend of mine who continually invokes it and yet possesses no experiential insight other than a television screen.
I'll dig my own figures out in the next half-hour to show where i have them, as I don't believe there's a great deal in it.
I'll dig my own figures out in the next half-hour to show where i have them, as I don't believe there's a great deal in it.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That sounds a bit Mordinish to me Warbs. A certain punting instinct is very useful at times.
EC1
On a break
pace and trip are linked Steve..a fast pace at 6 or 7f wouldn't suit..and neither will it at 10 against STS imo..on all evidence to date.
I hope it wins for you because I won't be betting on the race..its a watcher for me..I will be amazed if STS does not win
Colin Phillips
At the Start
"...............no direct background ..........."
I'm not sure I know what you mean by that, Warbs.
I'm not sure I know what you mean by that, Warbs.
I'm sorry to have misinterpreted your comment David. It is I who should apologise.
EC1
On a break
Steve
we all love you really you know
I admire your level of belief..when I get on one..I'm exactly the same
we all love you really you know
I admire your level of belief..when I get on one..I'm exactly the same
We all have different ways of arriving at a conclusion. One way is not necessarily better than another. I like to think I adopt a variety of methods to arrive at my own, from what I see on course to what I analyse off course. Occasionally a horse comes along that seems to synthesise evidence, instinct and belief.
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I'm obviously not ruling out that STS will win at 10 furlongs (only an idiot would do that), it's just that I believe that Fame is deeply underestimated at the trip and that STS will have hell and fury put up against him at Leopardstown.
At 7/4 against I was very happy to back Fame for this. At Longchamp I'd have no problem backing Fame at evens against STS in a match or indeed at odds-on. I believe STS should be favourite at Leopardstown on form, but will equally not be surprised if Fame beats him.
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To an extent yes, but don't get fixated on this, they also operate independently. Dancing Brave had the stamina to have won the Leger had he gone for it. He also had the pace to astonish in the Guineas... So much so that people said he wouldn't get a mile and a half in a horse box at the time, as he had so much speed.
No one has ever doubted Fame's stamina, its the pace they doubt. His pace was evident to me in the Irish Derby.
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This is where i have them weighted off 9.0 to an all age Gp1 par;
Fame and Glory = 110.29 on +1.00 @ 12F (Irish Derby)
Sea The Stars = 109.47 on +2.89 @ 10F (Eclipse)
Sea The Stars = 105.85 on +3.62 @10.5F (International Stks)
Sea The Stars = 101.76 on +1.82 @ 8F (2000 Gns)
Fame and Glory = 100.46 on +2.64 @ 10F (Derrinstown)
Fame and Glory = 98.54 on +0.25 @ 10F (Ballysax)
Sea The Stars = 93.23 on +2.39 @ 12F (Derby)
Fame and Glory = 91.48 on +2.39 @ 12F (Derby)
It might be that the appropriate class par is the better indicator given that this will map maturation that bit more accurately? Not sure it would alter things that significantly, as you're still going to be left with the connundrum of whether you're happy to take a 12F rating as one that might transfer to 10F's rather than rely on the horse that has performed at 10F's instead.
Fame and Glory = 110.29 on +1.00 @ 12F (Irish Derby)
Sea The Stars = 109.47 on +2.89 @ 10F (Eclipse)
Sea The Stars = 105.85 on +3.62 @10.5F (International Stks)
Sea The Stars = 101.76 on +1.82 @ 8F (2000 Gns)
Fame and Glory = 100.46 on +2.64 @ 10F (Derrinstown)
Fame and Glory = 98.54 on +0.25 @ 10F (Ballysax)
Sea The Stars = 93.23 on +2.39 @ 12F (Derby)
Fame and Glory = 91.48 on +2.39 @ 12F (Derby)
It might be that the appropriate class par is the better indicator given that this will map maturation that bit more accurately? Not sure it would alter things that significantly, as you're still going to be left with the connundrum of whether you're happy to take a 12F rating as one that might transfer to 10F's rather than rely on the horse that has performed at 10F's instead.
But surely sustaining a strong pace is stamina?
Most top horses are pretty well capable of hitting the same top-speed. Some can get there more quickly than others (acceleration - often confused with pace) where as others can sustain that top-speed for longer, (the last one to start slowing down etc stamina in any other language).
It stands to reason that off a slow pace, the horse blessed with the greater acceleration will beat the one with less. What tends to happen is they open up a quick gap in order to reach that top-speed and are then able to hold it. Once achieved, both horses would now be travelling at pretty similar levels, with the pursuer unable to make inroads into the leader even though both are doing the same speed. You could see it graphically in the days of turftrax when they plotted the winners performance against the field average. George Washington's Guineas was the clearest example of it, where he put 2L's between himself and the field, and then maintained that advantage through the remainder of his plot. He never pulled away, (in fact they came back at him fractionally) but with all the horses travelling at pretty well the same final speed, and possessing similar levels of stamina to see the race out, it was his acceleration that decided the issue.
Off a fast pace though, it's the horse that is able to sustain his effort through the sections that tends to prevail by simply opening the gap incrementally. Again they can all hit the similar top-speed, but some can only manage it for half a furlong, where as others can draw on their stamina to keep hammering through the sections at the same pace for much longer. Hawk Wing and Ratki's Lockinge would be examples where the plot simply extended. Although people call these fast horses and say its pace that's won the day, it's a slightly incorrect assingnation I feel, as what you're really witnessing is the horses ability to sustain that level of performance over a longer distance than his rivals (stamina).
All of this pre-supposses that Fame and Glory has the pace necessary to sustain it of course, as there's no shortage of horses who get a trip at a slow pace, but that's not stamina, that's just lack of class.
What you saw at the Curragh isn't likely to be pace as your suggesting, but more likely to be stamina, and that regard the Curragh won't necessarily have cast any new light on the horse (as you accept that his stamina isn't the issue). Once he got up to top-speed it was his stamina that continued to extend that lead, not his pace. He did however take his time to get there, and with 2 furlongs less one feels he needs to have it cranked up for him from the moments the gates open.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,859
Steve
we all love you really you know
I admire your level of belief..when I get on one..I'm exactly the same
Hear hear.
I confess I love when Steve goes OTT about one he's latched on to. It's great banter all the way up to the race and great banter congratulating him when he's right or slagging him off when he's wrong. Most of us do likewise now and again. It's one of the things that, over the last dozen or so years, has set this forum apart.
From my own viewpoint, I don't quite share Steve's infatuation with F&G, which I backed heavily in the Derby and was disgusted with the ride it got. I fully expected a different story at the Curragh and so it proved.
However, just as Steve goes with great conviction on the evidence of his own experienced eye, so I go with great conviction on my reading of form and improvement curves. I and one or two others tried to convince the forum of STS's huge ability going into the Eclipse and even the Juddmonte. We gave facts and figures to back up our opinion. Some still doubt them because Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman got close.
I'm on record as admitting that F&G's figure for the Irish Derby is higher than STS's Guineas and Derby. The figures elsewhere still tell me STS will put F&G in his place, all other things being equal.
I was speaking to a good judge - and a huge fan of AOB - the other evening. We hadn't spoken for a few weeks. He asked my opinion of the Juddmonte and to my surprise his opinion was almost exactly as I'd posted on here. "STS is a good five lengths better than Mastercraftsman," he said, and backed it up with just about everything I'd said after the race. (He doesn't visit this forum - he's not an internet kind of bloke.)
Roll on the race. May both horses get their optimum conditions and may we see a real race. I'm as convinced in my own mind that STS will reinforce my belief that he is a superstar just as much as Steve is convinced Fame will give STS a doing. The real shame is that we won't be there together in person to shake hands afterwards, buy each other a drink and look for excuses!
EC1
On a break
nice post DO
I disagree with those who say the thread is repeating itself. I've very much enjoyed the banter with Steve, and have been against FAG all season. However, it's great to see a strong opinion and my thoughts on that won't be changed regardless of who wins the Irish Champion. A different debate from the Eclipse one which was enjoyable in a different sense.
Sheikh
At the Start
Going to pop in there this evo with the sheikhometre to check myself......don't tell anyone.
By Keith Hamer, Press Association Sport
Officials at Leopardstown are full of hope for the clash between Classic winners Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory in the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes.
John Oxx's four-time Group One winner and Aidan O'Brien's Irish Derby victor are on course to renew rivalry in what is being billed as the race of the year on Saturday.
Oxx will not want to risk Sea The Stars, who defeated Fame And Glory in the Investec Derby, on soft ground, but the Currabeg handler will have been heartened by the latest going report from the Dublin track which describes course conditions as good, good to firm in places.
"We're really hopeful at the moment and I think there's an excellent chance we'll have a big clash on Saturday," said Leopardstown general manager Tom Burke.
"I've been keeping in touch with the trainers on a daily basis on the latest conditions and weather forecast.
"It is shaping up to be the race of the year. We are really looking forward to it.
"This morning the ground was good, good to firm in places. Looking forward, the forecast is a bit mixed. It should be mainly dry for the rest of Sunday, but there's the possibility of some showers tonight or tomorrow, then sharp, showery conditions on Tuesday. But a lot of these tend to be hit and miss.
"There's a spell of rain for a while on Wednesday and after that into showery conditions again of the hit and miss variety but by the weekend it might become dry.
"That's the way it's shaping up, the week is a bit mixed.
"At this stage Wednesday is the day we will get more rain than anything else, but I don't think they will be in huge quantities.
"In the past week we were forecast rain at various stages, but we never got as much as was indicated. We have avoided a lot of the rain while the west of Ireland have had a lot. The east coast appears to fare much better."
Officials at Leopardstown are full of hope for the clash between Classic winners Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory in the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes.
John Oxx's four-time Group One winner and Aidan O'Brien's Irish Derby victor are on course to renew rivalry in what is being billed as the race of the year on Saturday.
Oxx will not want to risk Sea The Stars, who defeated Fame And Glory in the Investec Derby, on soft ground, but the Currabeg handler will have been heartened by the latest going report from the Dublin track which describes course conditions as good, good to firm in places.
"We're really hopeful at the moment and I think there's an excellent chance we'll have a big clash on Saturday," said Leopardstown general manager Tom Burke.
"I've been keeping in touch with the trainers on a daily basis on the latest conditions and weather forecast.
"It is shaping up to be the race of the year. We are really looking forward to it.
"This morning the ground was good, good to firm in places. Looking forward, the forecast is a bit mixed. It should be mainly dry for the rest of Sunday, but there's the possibility of some showers tonight or tomorrow, then sharp, showery conditions on Tuesday. But a lot of these tend to be hit and miss.
"There's a spell of rain for a while on Wednesday and after that into showery conditions again of the hit and miss variety but by the weekend it might become dry.
"That's the way it's shaping up, the week is a bit mixed.
"At this stage Wednesday is the day we will get more rain than anything else, but I don't think they will be in huge quantities.
"In the past week we were forecast rain at various stages, but we never got as much as was indicated. We have avoided a lot of the rain while the west of Ireland have had a lot. The east coast appears to fare much better."
You must be a wealthy man if £300+ is pocket money!
What can I say...
I did not realise it was for that much...Leopardstown could have got a good bit of rain today though as it was steady all day here (around an hour or so away). Will be interesting to hear Sheikhs assessment but at least it is starting off the week on a pretty fast surface.
I
ItalianStallion
Guest
Sea The Stars should be odds on for what he has achieved, anything bigger than odds on should be snapped at.