Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced

Pray for rain Steve and you'll be fine. Will also knock STS out the way and we can continue the Fame And Glory debate for another month ;)
 
SteveM said:
Particularly so with the added bonus of a possible appearance by Mastercraftsman - a hell of a good race.

The best result for my TTF would be Casual Conquest though... any chance?:)
Click to expand...

I think Casual Conquest would have to improve by 7 or 8 pounds. It's hard to say I can see this improvement, but as he's so lightly raced for a 4 year old, and hasn't faced any top horses yet over 1m2 and a fast pace, there is always the possibility.

It would burst just about everyone's bubbles were he to win though. :D
 
I'll be disappointed if Oxx does not at least declare the horse and make a decision on Friday evening or Saturday morning.
 
Galileo said:
I'll be disappointed if Oxx does not at least declare the horse and make a decision on Friday evening or Saturday morning.
Click to expand...

He must surely do that, otherwise the intention of not running him under any circumstances will be pretty evident.
 
Quote:
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2009, 12:00
Leopardstown 'hopeful' of seeing the stars


Racing: Leopardstown remain "very hopeful" that Sea The Stars will run in Saturday's Tattersalls Irish Champion Chase.
The big clash with Fame And Glory was put in doubt by rain on Monday and an unsettled forecast for the rest of the week.
John Oxx is unwilling to risk his brilliant colt on ground worse than good although he has hinted he may run on good to yielding.
Tom Burke, racing manager at Leopardstown, told At The Races : "We are still very hopeful Sea The Stars will run but Wednesday will be a crucial day weather wise.
"We have the forecast of rain and it depends on how much it delivers us. At the moment we are good to yielding, good in places after six millimetres on Monday.
"Tuesday is a mix of sunshine and showers, but nothing serious. There is then rain on Wednesday but Thursday and Friday don't look too bad."


STS gone chasing now? :D
 
Last edited:
Shocking journalisim, to think we are in the age of computuers it takes about 5 seconds to check the name of the race on the internet yet they still get it wrong.
 
Do people think Mastercraftsman will run? I think the Champion Sire race could have an impact on Coolmore's decision. Even the £60k or so for third would keep the top stallion race alive, just, should Sea The Stars win, considering some of the juveniles running for Danehill Dancer before the end of the season.

Furthermore, if Sea the Stars doesn't run, might Coolmore withdraw Fame and Glory and send him for the Prix Niel, leaving Mastercraftsman to pick up the pot and leave Danehill Dance the long odds on favourite to be leading stallion???

I suppose it comes down to which is of more importance to Coolmore, making Danehill Dancer champion sire and keeping it within the Coolmore stable or, potentially, handing the price to Darley but getting a 10f Group 1 on Fame & Glory's CV. I reckon Magnier & Co would love to see Danehill Dancer as Champion Sire, justifying his private fee status.

The above is totally dependent, of course, on Sea the Stars not running. I sincerely hope we see him there on Saturday and see all three lineup.
 
Weather today in Dublin very much like yesterday with steady - but by no means heavy - showers at regular intervals throughout the day.

If it brightens up towards the end of the week (might as well be optimistic!) we could well have good ground.
 
The problem is the forecast for tomorrow. If the word good is still in the description by nightfall then I think there is a decent chance it will have dried out enough on Saturday.
 
Picking up on the idea of Mastercraftsman's presence and Sea The Stars not running, I've been wondering if there isn't another angle or two that's being over-looked here as well in the rush to laud the obvious two?

Alright the first part of the hypothesis involves more rain falling than has been forecast, but that goes without saying, and has to be a given for the rationale to stand any chance.

Now I don't know what Met Erieann are like, but if they're anything like our lot this side of the Irish Sea, I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of anything they say beyond 3 hours.

The next thing would be John Oxx's mindset. He has the scores on the doors, what incentive does he have to face the Ballydoyle crowd again? He's raced against all of them now, and beaten all of them. He can pick and choose his conditions. Effectively, in this game of poker he's the chip leader.

So let's assume it does rain, and despite the desparate clerk declaring 'good' ground (as surely he will given just half a chance) John Oxx decides otherwise. The man isn't naturally given to chucking and chancing it after all. Then what?

Lets assume we have 'Soft' ground then (always an assumption and the whole thing is little more than hypothesis anyway) but what's the logical thing to do with Fame and Glory now? What's the evidence base to suggest that Fame and Glory won't be inconveniced by 'soft' either?

Well if Oxx has indicated that STS would be routed towards the Arc, is there really any reason for F&G to risk a tear up in soft conditions en-route to a tilt at Longchamp himself? Bronze Canon has proven already at Newmarket that Casual Conquest is vulnerable off a slow pace, so there's no good reason to believe that if F&G stands his ground, that Casual Conquest (possibly aided by Famous Name - though I doubt it) would seek to turn this into a stretch of stamina in testing conditions by forcing a strong pace. After all Casual Conquest has won both the Tattersalls Gold Cup and Royal Whip on heavy ground this term (-7.24 and -6.99). If the Arc is F&G's primary aim, would he not be better off simply reverting to Plan A and looking to meet STS over 12F's in Paris, and thus take in what is normally a much more gentle exercise assignment in the shape of the Niel?

Fame and Glory's own ground preference isn't that clear-cut either, although on balance you'd give him the benefit of any doubt.

Derrinstown = +2.64 (slow side of G/F)
The Derby = +2.39 (slow side of G/F)
Irish Derby = +1.00 (Good)
Ballysax = +0.25 (Good)

The variance figure for the Irish Derby is the interesting one, as +1.00 is good ground and Oxx ducked it. In addition to F&G, Golden Sword, Mourayan and Famous Name all beat standard time on the day in question, so the evidence suggests that STS could have run without any fear of it being too soft (would he have won? I don't know. F&G looked pretty impressive to me)

You have to go back to F&G's 2yo form to find evidence of ability on heavy ground.

Criterium St Cloud = -10.10?
Navan Maiden = somewhere between -8.04 & 9.88

I wouldn't be massively confident about the precise track variance figures, but I'd be happy that 'heavy' was accurate for both courses. At St Cloud he might have won what is technically a Group 1, and fair play to him, but beating Drumbeat half length wouldn't be a massive endorsement for his ability to perfrom on the surface. Drumbeat also came from second last place to second, where as F&G came from 3rd to 1st once they entered the straight. You might argue that he also beat Age of Aquarius, but I reckon this was the last race in which AoA actually over-took a horse, I'm not convinced he's necessarily blessed with a change of gear himself.

F&G's primary strength seems to be his cruising speed, but I still feel he takes a bit of time to reach it. Once he does reach it though, I believe he's top-drawer, but on too a soft a surface the time it takes him to get there has to be compromised surely?

At St Cloud F&G entered the straight in 3rd place, where as AoA did so in 5th. They finished first and fourth respectively, but with no more than 1.5L's seperating them (I'd love to know what the final 3 furlongs were run in). If you were really unkind you could put half of this 1.5L's down to the difference between Murtagh and Heffernan, and that's before you consider Drumbeat coming from second last to nearly snatch the verdict on the line. Might it be that in terms of acceelration on a soft top, F&G is little better than AoA?

The only other time he encountered heavy ground was at Navan on debut when he won a maiden from Sigarfield Sobers by 1.5L's with the benefit of a 7Ib claimer (who only seems to have a jumps licence today - the ominously named S. Hunter / 'Shunter' surely?). He beat Fergus McIver 7L's which would be worth about 4.5L's at levels in this race.

Would you be rushing out to take the heavy odds about F&G on soft ground against Casual Conquest? I don't know. You certainly couldn't say he doesn't act on the surface, but I'm not as convinced he's necessarily as effective on it as might be imagined even though he's 2 from 2 on it (a maiden and a weak 2yo Gp1).

Casual Conquest is 1, 3, 1 including an all age Gp1

even Famous Name is 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, with cut, although those wins have tended to come in Gp3's and the places in Gp1 and 2 (Prix Jockey Club, & Tatts GC being the Gp1's).

I can't help wondering if there isn't a bit of a case for venturing a second look at the unconsidered outsiders and effectively place a bet on a combination of the weather and the pyschosis of John Oxx - and with it, by natural extension, the commercial priorities of Coolmore. Might they reckon that Mastercraftsman is good enough to take in this assignment in the absence of Sea The Stars? Oxx certainly expressed his surprise that the horse had been left in. Or might Dermott Weld inherit the situation yet?

If the bet can be reduced to something in region of a weather forecast being wrong, well after this Summer, I'd normally take even money on that eventuality :lol:
 
Last edited:
Fame And Glory is a certain starter now that the ground will not be too firm, it is just a question of weither MCM and STS joins him. F&G will run in this because it has seemingly always been the plan but also Coolmore realise the importance of supporting these major Irish Group 1s given the huge investment into them - see it time and time again.

Casual Conquest is not a top notch Group 1 horse like the two Ballydoyle colts and STS - none of them would be extended to beat him imo. Famous Name will get outstayed by the rest in the final furlong as well.

MCM is interesting - I think alot will depend on what the ground is like in France? If there is an ease they must be seriously tempted at dropping back to a mile.
 
Well if Oxx has indicated that STS would be routed towards the Arc, is there really any reason for F&G to risk a tear up in soft conditions en-route to a tilt at Longchamp himself?
Click to expand...

Look at the list of previous winners of this race and nothing more need be said. It is much more than an Arc trial.
 
Which isn't too far removed from what I'm suggesting. In the absence of STS, why run F&G? The Niel has proven to be the more productive route to Longchamp and you'd still have to think you could win the Champion Stakes with MCM? That being so, you'd have covered all the bases and seemingly achieved all your targets, whilst still giving F&G what should, in theory at least, be the best chance of beating STS later on
 
Last edited:
Warbler said:
In the absence of STS, why run F&G?
Click to expand...

Because they are in the business of making stallions. The horse already has a reputation of being a boat because of the way the Derby panned out, and they'll never get a better chance to win an all-aged Group 1 at ten furlongs than on Saturday should Sea The Stars not turn up.
 
Ground is still Good To Yielding, Good in places after just 1mm of rain yesterday. Today is D-Day weatherwise.
 
The rainfall radar as of 9.45 suggests there's a band of rain about 2 hours away that's heading right at Dublin and it's bubbling up. It doesn't look massively heavy and there's a less intense bit in behind it, which looks as if in it's on a track to hit Dublin. They might escape the worse of it, but it's still covering pretty well the whole country. Unless it breaks up significantly it should be with at about 12.00 and looks like lasting about 5-6 hours
 
Last edited:
It started raining when I was on the eighteenth (ninth second time round) tee at stepaside yesterday. It got so heavy that I had to pick up my ball and run despite hitting a particularly nice drive. It had stopped by the time I got back to the car but i was still quite damp after the experience.
 
EC1 said:
Quote:
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2009, 12:00
Leopardstown 'hopeful' of seeing the stars


Racing: Leopardstown remain "very hopeful" that Sea The Stars will run in Saturday's Tattersalls Irish Champion Chase.
The big clash with Fame And Glory was put in doubt by rain on Monday and an unsettled forecast for the rest of the week.
John Oxx is unwilling to risk his brilliant colt on ground worse than good although he has hinted he may run on good to yielding.
Tom Burke, racing manager at Leopardstown, told At The Races : "We are still very hopeful Sea The Stars will run but Wednesday will be a crucial day weather wise.
"We have the forecast of rain and it depends on how much it delivers us. At the moment we are good to yielding, good in places after six millimetres on Monday.
"Tuesday is a mix of sunshine and showers, but nothing serious. There is then rain on Wednesday but Thursday and Friday don't look too bad."


STS gone chasing now? :D
Click to expand...

...get him gelded first.:lol:
 
Galileo said:
Not raining yet at The Curragh anyway (around 45 minutes away from the track).
Click to expand...

It seems to have broken up in the last hour, that less intense bit behind the main front has fizzled out and it's sort of dividing into two prongs, one of which is going North of the Dublin area, and the other bit is going South of it. You might get lucky yet!!!

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y
 
Back
Top