Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced

I agree... It's got about as much chance of coming off as hens' teeth becoming the norm though.
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Yes, if we believe Oxx is afraid of running STS over 1m4; but it has a reasonable chance if Oxx genuinely wants to run him in the Arc given suitable ground.

Isn't it a bit of a myth the Arc is usually run on soft ground? Just had a quick look at the RP ground description for the Arc over the past few years (perhaps these are incorrect; those who produce speed ratings feel free to correct)

2008 - Good to soft
2007 - Good to soft
2006 - Good
2005 - Good to soft
2004 - Good
2003 - Holding
2002 - Good
2001 - Holding
2000 - Good

44% chance of having genuine good ground.
 
Some of them are incorrect; but in that they advertise ground that was slower than the reality i.e. some of those Goods should be Good To Firms.
 
Indeed, it's usually been ran on fast ground in recent years! That 2006 description is way off the mark, it was like a road.
 
Cheers Gareth - thought as much, and that makes the Arc ground even more likely to suit. If Oxx wants to genuinely run in it, he should say so, as there is a reasonable chance the ground will suit. If not, it would be better if he was upfront and said 1m4 is off the agenda for Sea the Stars.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Indeed, it's usually been ran on fast ground in recent years! That 2006 description is way off the mark, it was like a road.
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Not actually that year, but sometime with France the times can tell us that the ground is fast but visually they often are taking the top of the ground. Suggests probably that the watering policy in France can make the ground at the track pretty slippery on top but that if a horse is able to handle it (some definitely are not) then he is capable of producing a fast ground time given what is underneath the loose layer.

One race that comes to mind is the French mile race last year that Goldikova won from the likes of Paco's Boy and Henrythenavigator. They had the ground down as Good To Soft that day, but (if memory services me correct) the times said it was better than that but to my eye Henry was not travelling a yard on it with loads of kickback etc.
 
Hamm said:
Yes, if we believe Oxx is afraid of running STS over 1m4; but it has a reasonable chance if Oxx genuinely wants to run him in the Arc given suitable ground.

Isn't it a bit of a myth the Arc is usually run on soft ground? Just had a quick look at the RP ground description for the Arc over the past few years (perhaps these are incorrect; those who produce speed ratings feel free to correct)

2008 - Good to soft
2007 - Good to soft
2006 - Good
2005 - Good to soft
2004 - Good
2003 - Holding
2002 - Good
2001 - Holding
2000 - Good

44% chance of having genuine good ground.
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True, but Good at Longchamp would probably be too 'soft' for STS (as you say, if we believe he does not really want to run him again at 12 furlongs on pain of death - which I do).
 
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John Oxx has placed a question mark over the participation of Sea The Stars in Tuesday's Juddmonte International on the first day of York's Ebor meeting.
The equine star of the season skipped the King George at Ascot in favour of the 10-furlong heat on the Knavesmire as he looks to win his fourth Group One of the season.
However, with Oxx scouring weather forecasts for Yorkshire in earnest, what he has found has not thrilled him in the slightest.
"William Derby (clerk of the course) has been keeping me fully informed about the ground and I have all the weather forecasts in front of me," said Oxx.
"If all of the rain that is forecast arrives then it will be soft on Sunday in my opinion.
"There is a big question mark about Tuesday and I hope that all of the forecast rain doesn't arrive. The rain could miss York, but if it doesn't then we will have a tricky decision on Sunday morning.
"By then most of the rain may have come but I feel it will be an unclear situation.
"The forecast looks quite good for Monday and Tuesday, but trainers do not like these 'will I/won't I' decisions.
"There is a possibility we will have to declare him if the ground is uncertain, but if it is very soft then he won't be declared.
"He needs to have it good or faster if he is to run to his rating in the 130s, which is what people want to see.
"He needs good, fast ground and not good, slow ground as he really does feel the difference."
If Oxx is forced to miss York or not he has already stated the Irish Champion Stakes will be next for the brilliant colt, but the Arc is also on the agenda - once again ground permitting.
"The Arc is very much in mind and my only reservation over not running him (at Longchamp) is that the ground is unlikely to suit," he added.
"It is a tough regime and most horses that run in the Arc will not have run in the International and Irish Champion Stakes beforehand.
"If all goes well and the ground is dry then I think he will run in the Arc, and I would imagine that the owner will be keen to run as they won it with Sea The Stars' dam (Urban Sea).
"It is highly unlikely that he will race next year, but if the weather makes a mess of plans then we will have to think about it.
"The Breeders' Cup is a possibility and we have to think about it with the surface out there. If the horse is still fresh and well in November then we will have to think about it as it the trip and track will suit.
"I am boring when it comes to Sea The Stars' plans but you just don't know what will happen with the weather."
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I've probably come to regard Longchamp as the least reliable going description in Europe Hamm.

Others might make bigger howlers more occasionally, but Longchamp are well out on their own in terms of the frequency in which they get it wrong by a full going description or more
 
Yes, i think it was you who originally alerted me to this, when you rather nicely identified Rail Link as probable Arc winner!
 
Does anyone have a strong opinion on the likelihood of good to soft, or soft ground? If it's anywhere near as likely as Oxx is forecasting (I realise he's a glass half-empty man), then it is perhaps worth a decent bet on Mastercraftsman? Even a sizeable each way bet now at 3/1, losing little if he were to run second or third to Sea the Stars, could look like one of the bets of the year if the ground description were to have soft in it, resulting in Sea the Stars not turning up.

The each way part is based on the number of horses entered when the bet is made, correct?
 
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Hamm said:
Does anyone have a strong opinion on the likelihood of good to soft, or soft ground? If it's anywhere near as likely as Oxx is forecasting (I realise he's a glass half-empty man), then it is perhaps worth a decent bet on Mastercraftsman? Even a sizeable each way bet now at 3/1, losing little if he were to run second or third to Sea the Stars, could look like one of the bets of the year if the ground description were to have soft in it, resulting in Sea the Stars not turning up.

The each way part is based on the number of horses entered when the bet is made, correct?
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I think they would try their utmost to get STS to post at York and that he’d take his chance on anything other than soft (whereas I think they’d take the least excuse not to run in the Arc, with the Champion Stakes options either side of the Irish Sea looking much more likely).

Oxx obvious wouldn’t want York to water (although that doesn’t seem likely with rain forecast). With the sort of weather we’re getting at the moment it’s very difficult to say how much rain will turn up and exactly where, with it being scattered and patchy.

However, I wouldn’t put you off taking a price on Mastercraftsman. You’d be virtually certain of getting a run. Although you couldn’t be confident he’d beat STS, he must have a chance of getting to him even with STS lining up. Mastercraftsman won’t be inconvenienced by fast or soft, but obviously on soft it’s unlikely STS will be there as well.

This is probably stating the obvious and is nothing that wouldn’t have occurred to you anyway.

Yes ante-post terms apply to a bet so struck.
 
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SteveM said:
Oxx obvious wouldn’t want York to water (although that doesn’t seem likely with rain forecast). With the sort of weather we’re getting at the moment it’s very difficult to say how much rain will turn up and exactly where, with it being scattered and patchy.
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I don't think Derby dare risk watering in these circumstances as he will want to maximise the chances of Sea The Stars turning up. It augurs well - I'd always prefer to see the meeting run on unwatered ground where possible.
 
Indeed gus, especially at York. Even with the new drainage, with the extra day's racing you wouldn't want to see them run the risk of it ending up like the Royal meeting did there.
 
Looking a bit further ahead...

Michael Kinane and Johnny Murtagh, respective riders of Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory, are both full of confidence in their horses as the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes showdown at Leopardstown on 5th September draws ever closer.

Michael Kinane said of the winner of the 2000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby this year, as well as the Eclipse: - “Sea The Stars didn’t surprise me in the Eclipse, he did it really well and the race is working out well. He has always done everything we have ever asked of him. He has everything, pace, speed, stamina, temperament. Nothing fazes him.”

There is no mistaking the regard in which the son of Cape Cross is held by Kinane, who also rode his half-brother Galileo to win the Epsom Derby in 2001.

“It is difficult to compare him with Galileo who was a very good Derby winner and a King George winner, but he was never asked to go the Guineas route. This fellow has more pace than Galileo would have had, and he stays. As a two-year-old, Sea The Stars was always a horse who was looking to go a trip, then when he won the Guineas people questioned his stamina for a mile and a half. I had no worries about him staying, but he has so much pace that 10 furlongs (the distance of the Irish Champion Stakes) could be his optimum. He is up there with the best horses I have ridden. He may be the best. He has it all, mentally and physically. He is the complete package.”

The only time that Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory met, in the Epsom Derby at the beginning of June, it was the John Oxx-trained horse who came out on top, but he had less than two lengths in hand over his adversary.

Johnny Murtagh is more than hopeful that his mount can bridge the gap saying:- “Fame And Glory progressed a lot between the Epsom Derby and the Irish Derby, he was really impressive in the Irish Derby, and he has gone forward again since then.”

The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt skipped the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last month in order that he could be trained specifically for the Irish Champion Stakes, and Murtagh has no worries about him dropping back down in trip from a mile and a half.

“He has freshened up very well since the Irish Derby and has lots of pace, and we think he has improved again. We think that he is a very good horse. It is one-nil to Sea The Stars in their private duel, he is the champion, but we’re hoping that we can level the score on 5th September.”

Tom Burke, Leopardstown Racecourse Manager said: - “This race continues to provide one of the best spectacles in racing and indeed in any sport. The Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes will be held for the first time under our one-enclosure policy with an admission price of just €20 with concession prices for seniors, students and online ticket buyers.”

Edmund Mahony Tattersalls Chairman & Sponsor said:- "The prospect of Sea the Stars and Fame and Glory renewing their rivalry in the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes reflects the global standing of the race. As we approach our October Yearling Sales the massive international profile of the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes is a wonderful promotional vehicle for Tattersalls."
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The Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes will be held for the first time under our one-enclosure policy with an admission price of just €20 with concession prices for seniors, students and online ticket buyers.
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Sounds good to me. I hope they get the support (and ground!) they deserve.
 
As I expected about Fame. It will take a brilliant horse to beat him. Perhaps one even more brilliant than STS.

This should be a truly great contest. I'd fancy Fame if they met in the Arc. But here? I guess the going will prove a big factor in Ireland, but what a race, if it comes off!
 
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How much have you been able to enjoy your season with this horse?

John Oxx: There is certainly an element of relief when a race is over and has gone according to plan but any trainer would like to train a horse like this. It's what you hope and dream of all your life and when one comes along, you enjoy it but there are elements of anxiety and relief too.

You have trained some very good horses before - what's this colt got that the likes of Sinndar didn't?

JO: We'll have to wait and see. Sinndar kept winning and improving every time he went to the races and ended up winning the Arc in a fast time. Hopefully this fellow can do the same and maintain a very high level of form. What he has that a lot of other horses don't is speed and flexibility in terms of trip. We wouldn't be worried what distance we run over. He is a Guineas, Derby and Eclipse winner in the space of eight weeks. Not many horses can do that.

You said you felt the Triple Crown could still be won but Sea The Stars wasn't the horse to do it. What swayed you away from that route with him?

JO: His sire - Cape Cross. He is generally an influence for speed over stamina. He has had Ouija Board but it you talk to her connections they felt a mile-and-a-quarter was her trip. I couldn't see a Cape Cross with the speed he has being suited by a mile-and-six. I can see the Triple Crown being won but it will be by a son of Montjeu, Galileo or Dalakhani who has the speed for a mile but a mile-and-a-half pedigree. The genes have to be there.

What's he done since we last saw him at Sandown?

JO: He is a big, strong, fresh colt and if we gave him a holiday he would get above himself. He had a couple of days walking and trotting after Sandown then cantered on the Wednesday. He just cantered up until around King George time, six days a week and walking on Sunday. Tuesday after Ascot we started fast work again with three weeks before York. He works pretty hard, horses with his ability train to a slightly tougher beat than the rest of them. They need a bit more and they get a bit more. That's the fine line you walk with them.

With regards to the horse's trip - will we see him over a mile-and-a-half again and if not why not?

JO: The Arc is very much in our minds - the only reason I've said he was unlikely to run there is the fear the ground would be unsuitable. That's still a firm possibility. After York, Leopardstown then Longchamp is a possible route. It's a tough schedule and we can't say we are definitely going to the Arc, miss everything else, and then if it comes up wet not run there either. If the horse is well, everything has gone well and it's dry we'd run in the Arc.

How likely is he to stay in training next season?

JO: Nothing has been decided yet, in fact no discussions have taken place. The owners are just enjoying the horse and we'll get to the end of this year we'll decide what is going to happen. I would say it is highly unlikely he stays in training but if the weather was to mess up our plans and we didn't get much racing before the end of the year then we'd have to think about it. That's for another time though.

Would the new surface at Santa Anita tempt you into a bid for the Breeders' Cup Classic?

JO: It's a possibility. The new surface suited the European horses last year. I'm a bit of a bore when it comes to plans for this horse but I don't know what is going to happen. The weather will decide. I can't make definite plans and if we were ruled out of a couple of races and felt he was fresh enough for a race in November we'd seriously consider it. We feel the surface and the track will suit him but it's just one of the possible races on the agenda.

What would the ground need to be for you to decide not to run on Tuesday?

JO: William Derby has been keeping me fully informed and if all the potential rain arrives the ground will be soft on Sunday in my opinion. There's a big question mark about Tuesday and we just have to hope not as much rain as forecast arrives. It's all a bit up in the air. If everything comes that is possible it would be bad news for us. If it was soft on Sunday we face a tricky decision. By then most of the rain will have come so we may be in a position to make a judgement but I have a feeling it will be an unclear situation. The forecast for Monday and Tuesday is quite good so it isn't clear-cut. It's possible he will have to be declared and then we'll decide nearer the time but if it's very soft on Sunday morning we won't declare. He has to have good ground of faster and it has to be good ground that suits him. We work him quite a bit here on grass and he has been working lately on soft. But even when other riders say it is good, Mick (Kinane) feels it is slow on him. He feels the difference. He won the Beresford last year on yielding ground and his maiden on very soft ground. But if he is to run to a rating in the 130s he needs fast ground. I'd be worried about slow good as it would feel very dead on him. We need it as fast as we can get it.
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Regarding the Irish Champion Stakes, it is great to see the match up itself of the two horses actually be marketed and put forward. Oxx, O'Brien, Murtagh and Kinane were all at Leopardstown today for the official launch of the race and the press releases are really focused on the top two rather than alot of other side issues that are often promoted more at Irish racemeetings.
 
“He has freshened up very well since the Irish Derby and has lots of pace, and we think he has improved again. We think that he is a very good horse. It is one-nil to Sea The Stars in their private duel, he is the champion, but we’re hoping that we can level the score on 5th September.”

to me this is a lot of nonsense..if F&G has got so much pace then he had the ideal opportunity to show it in the slow run Derby...he didn't do it there and the drop back to 10f has to be a minus...

he needed an over strong pace on a stiff track to really get going..thats not a horse with lots of pace..its a stayer

over 10f...STS will murder him
 
I did not think Fame And Glory would take on Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion, but it appears very much as if it is the plan. At this stage I could only see Fame And Glory missing the race if Mastercraftsman beats STS or goes very close to it at York or the possibility of firm ground at Leopardstown. So looks like they are going to try and back up their words.
 
STS won't run at York imo..weather forecast is poor and it only needs someone to pee on the Knavesmire and its a bog

Oxx says he doesn't really favour good to soft ground..never mind soft..so his chance of running is miniscule

I hope they both run in the Irish Champion..a far better outcome for us than him running Tuesday

bring on the rain and force Oxx's hand imo
 
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Racing Post this evening reports a much more favourable forecast for York.....just as likely to get soft ground at Leopardstown.
 
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