I'll go through my Beyer type figures..Stan should have some views on this. They do differ from Beyer in that he only uses 10lb per second per mile..which is quite a narrow scale ..only about 40lbs from crap to super horse
Using a Beyer type calculation..I assign a speed figure to the race..I personally don't assign individual horse speed figures..I just want to know which races are faster than they should be..other figure makers want actual speed figures..this is the first decision you have to make really..what do you want from them? I personally want to know races that are under the radar as far as other punters are concerned time wise.
Weight doesn't enter into calculations using this method..as its a race spotting method..not an individual horse method.
I started by compiling standard times for all G1 courses and mainly concentrate on those.
My base figure for the standards is the time it takes an average Class C (3)
handicap race to cover the distance in a true run race on official Good ground.
Why class C handicaps?..because there are plenty of them..and any adjustments from other classes to equate to C are kept to a minimum..handicaps are your best friend when compiling speed figures..they are in the main more reliable as bases to work from. Where there aren't class C's use other handicaps and adjust them to 90
I used RSB to help me do this ..by getting the names of all class C winners on good ground...then trawling through the RP database and noting the best horse in the race and the racetime...some of those are faster than actual good..some are slower..over a series of 25 to 30 races you get a good median figure of what that class of race will achieve on good ground. Its time consuming because you have to throw out obvious dawdle races.
By noting the best horse ..OHR rated.. in those class C races you then correct the time to equate to a 90 OHR for each race.. So..you end up with a standard time for each distance based on true run races where the standard of race is at a level of a 90 horse..on good ground
All times are calculated per mile..again this simplifies your spreadsheet for calcs.
I use 1 second =
14.3 lbs at a mile..so 1 lb = 0.07 seconds...many people use a similar poundage.
so you have your standard times..at a level you know they are based on..if you use others you never really know what class they equate to..i've tried to calculate a way of comparing mine with RP ones so I can use theirs for courses i couldn't be arsed to do..its trial and error...you do need to know what level they are based on so you can make sense of the alllowance and where it sits on the going scale.
you would get something like this whilst calculating them
8f
Time/best horse OHR
98.00/85
97.60/92
98.30/83
convert those to 90 OHR race times
the first one..5lbs shy..so needs speeding up by 5lbs x 0.07 =
97.65
second one..2 lbs shy..so needs slowing down by 2lb x 0.07 =
97.74
3rd one..7 lbs shy..needs speeding up by 7lbs x 0.07 =
97.81
you can easily do all these calcs on a spreadsheet..its not long winded calcing..collecting it..yes
obviously when you calculate shorter or longer distances you need to adjust the 0.07 to suit..at 6f its ..0.07 x (
6/8) = 0.052...at 10f its...0.07 x (
10/8) = 0.087
the reason why when calcing the actual speed figures that working to the per mile way is easier...is to avoid having to do the above calculations..you have to do them to calculate your standards but its not necessary later in the actual making of the figures..though then again..some people prefer that way. I think easier is better especially as it makes no difference to teh actual figures.
i'll go through a card later or tomorrow
