Speed Figure calculation and usage

I keep my own speed ratings and use the going allowance from the racing post (because I'm lazy). I have started to notice from keeping records of my bets that the most successful ratings are from a pretty narrow band of going allowance, between +0.10 and -0.10 seconds per furlong. Has anyone else noticed this in their own ratings?
 
i've not really noticed that Mr F

not been watching much racing recently so have neglected this a bit

watching that last race at Ascot I got the impression that it wasn't that slowly run..a couple pulled in first 3f but after 4 furlongs those at the back were being ridden just to keep up..i'd say the overall time may be just a little slower than what was possible to achieve..i've not done your test on it Pru..the last 3f should be easy to compare from both races though.

the last race time was 152.19..compared to 146.78 for Harbinger

5.41 seconds @ 9.2lbs per second [topspeed scale] = 50lbs

winner of last race carried 9-7 so knocking wfa off would make Harbinger 38 lbs superior..Yashrid is probably a 85/88 horse after that which puts a speed figure of 123 on Harbinger.

would the last race winner have run much faster with 12 lb less on I wonder though?:)
 
Cape Blanco 110.2 / 38.8 / 148.98
Missionaire 114.4 / 38.2 / 152.60

these are the times to 3f out / the time from 3 out to finish / overalll time

looking at Missionaire its fair to say that this horse was given an even paced ride as he was still in with a chance after leading all the way

look at how much faster CB ran..4.2 seconds faster ...for the first 9f..no wonder he and Workforce were out on their legs..CB looks drunk with tiredness a furlong out as the early pace took its toll...even Missionaire ran the last 3f quicker than CB due to those early KG excesses

Harbinger 110.6 / 36.2 / 146.78

Harbinger wasn't far off that over fast early pace - but had loads more left - this would suggest he is quite some animal to be able finish like he did after going too fast early

He is the better horse but the other two weakened badly due to that quick early pace which has exhaggerated the winners superiority i think...which may explain the 11 lengths a little
 
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Assuming the last race was true run and gives an accurate guide to the ground, I have Harbinger on a time rating of just 120, which is pretty disappointing relative to the visual impression he gave in the race.
 
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EC1 said:
look at how much faster CB ran..4.2 seconds faster ...for the first 9f..no wonder he and Workforce were out on their legs..CB looks drunk with tiredness a furlong out as the early pace took its toll...even Missionaire ran the last 3f quicker than CB due to those early KG excesses
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I'd argue if that were the case, Cape Blanco would have folded in a heap too but he didn't. He held the others at quite a distance. If the pace was over-fast then Cape Blanco is also a machine. I think the pace was moderate and I reckon there just isn't enough to go on to compare the times of the two races over the c&d.

I think one race was moderately run (King George) and the other just slow.

But I'm open to persuasion on other arguments.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'd argue if that were the case, Cape Blanco would have folded in a heap too but he didn't. He held the others at quite a distance. If the pace was over-fast then Cape Blanco is also a machine. I think the pace was moderate and I reckon there just isn't enough to go on to compare the times of the two races over the c&d.

I think one race was moderately run (King George) and the other just slow.

But I'm open to persuasion on other arguments.
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if you watch Missionaire's race its pretty solid pace wise..the winner came right from the back and Missionaire didn't fall in a heap...even allowing for class difference.. Cape Blanco ran that first 9 furlongs 4 seconds faster ..thats not a dawdle..would say its the opposite

Cape Blanco is totally legless in the final furlong..he's rolling drunk a furlong out

I can't see how the KG was slowly run early..if they took 13 sec for the first furlong from standing start..by the time they hit 3 out..CB had been running 12.12 seconds per furlong on average..thats not slow at 12 furlongs

a conservative speed figure puts a note of caution on the KG for me..when a race is solidly run i expect a fast figure from a top class horse..it looks to me that the KG was run too fast and there was also an element of eye-balling going off between CB and WF

what evidence there is points to the 3yo's cutting each others throat to a degree
 
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EC1 said:
Cape Blanco is totally legless in the final furlong..he's rolling drunk a furlong out
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... but nothing gets any nearer to him than they were at the entrance to the straight so were they all legless? did they all go too fast?

Watching the race I was saying to myself that Youmzain and Daryakana were being ridden to pick up the scraps if any of the 'big guns' got caught up in the battle for the pace but they were still well beaten. I don't see that the overall pace could have been over-fast but, as I said, I'm open to convincing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
... but nothing gets any nearer to him than they were at the entrance to the straight so were they all legless? did they all go too fast?

Watching the race I was saying to myself that Youmzain and Daryakana were being ridden to pick up the scraps if any of the 'big guns' got caught up in the battle for the pace but they were still well beaten. I don't see that the overall pace could have been over-fast but, as I said, I'm open to convincing.
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maybe CB is a very good horse as well as you say

when i get chance i'm going to time a few past races over that 12f and get some % sorted to see where the early pace from yesterday sits with other winners pace profiles

i agree its odd that the others didn't finish past CB..but the clock says they went pretty hard early..add the fact that CB and WF were also eyeballing each other..that also winds horses up to go harder than they want.

if that pace scenario was too fast i would have expected Youmzain to have loved it..but then there is this factor of him running beow form at Ascot

i fully expected H to have put in a massive speed figure when i watched the race yesterday..visually it was a hot paced race..a figure of 120/123 is disappointing

if the race wasn't too fast early..it certainly wasn't too slow.. so it makes the winner disappointing clock wise..he had every chance to put a big one in..i think the reason he hasn't is overuse of early energy

are you out there Pru?..put as another view on this
 
Ascot used to be THE course for hand-held sectional times, due to the presence of paths at crucial junctures and due to the pronounced effect misjudgements of pace have at such a track. I have not taken sectionals since they relaid it, as I found them to be far too hit and miss. I may try again.

I take a different view to you on the times. I make the poundage difference greater and I make Harbinger's time a good one.

In reply, could you tell me what you think of the assertion, to be read in several places, that the ground was too firm for Workforce compared to the ground he encountered at Epsom?
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
In reply, could you tell me what you think of the assertion, to be read in several places, that the ground was too firm for Workforce compared to the ground he encountered at Epsom?
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It is often the case, is it not, that horses will let themselves down once on ground faster than ideal but not a second time? I wondered at the time if the Derby might have been a very hard race and maybe Workforce left his future racing future back there. There seemed no doubt in Moore's mind that Workforce was considerably better than Harbinger.

Edited to add:
There was also the theory expressed earlier in the day that Workforce leads with the wrong leg for a right-handed track.
 
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I've JUST done figures for Ascot - been neglecting racing a bit tbh.

looking at the times I can't really see how Ascot was faster than Epsom

On Saturday I got 31 lbs per mile fast on the round course + 20lbs per mile fast in the straight

when WF won at Epsom i got 33 lbs fast..so the ground wasn't as fast at Ascot

I too get a higher figure for Harbinger..i used topspeeds scale earlier..Harbinger got a 132 on my figures...thats IF the 3yo race was truly run

I think thats a fair reflection when viewed with the split times..maybe 125/132..all depends on the 3yo race
 
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EC1 said:
On Saturday I got 31 lbs per mile fast on the round course + 20lbs per mile fast in the straight
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... which would fly in the face of the CoC's going stick readings as well as the history of the straight course always being faster than the round course at the re-laid Ascot.

:blink:
 
Desert Orchid said:
... which would fly in the face of the CoC's going stick readings as well as the history of the straight course always being faster than the round course at the re-laid Ascot.

:blink:
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yes its changed since the royal meeting

maybe they are trying to rid the course of that difference..like Beverley did :)

or..more likely...the recent dry spell has probably helped even it up as well
 
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It wasn't reported widely but it did get a mention in places, as did the idea that Workforce might not be suited to right-handed tracks. Combine the two and add in a hard race at Epsom and anyone looking for excuses for the favourite has plenty of options.
 
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As mentioned above, I do not do sectionals for Ascot on a regular basis any longer, but, as EC points out, the closing sectionals of the beaten horses suggest their overall times (and proximity) were adversely affected by running unevenly. That said, you would be looking to have them a few lengths closer, rather than anything more substantial than that, and from a form point of view that fits in rather well with a standard assessment of the race.
 
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This is how I rate the 4:40 at York on Tues:

Changing The Guard 98
Right Step 97
Reve De Nuit 96
Almiqdaad 95
Sirvino 92
Arlequin 90
Caldercruix 90
Red Jade 90

I have had a bet on Almiqdaad who chased the pace in his last race which earned his best speed figure, in a race that favoured those that came from off the pace. He will have to be dropped in from his wide-ish draw and I'm hoping that will suit him so that he has a bit more left for the final furlong.
 
I too am a big Almiqdaad fan, I actually hope Hills tacks across and tries to make all as he's a master of making the running at York.

12s is huge, be my biggest bet tomorrow alongside Byword.
 
MrFrisk said:
This is how I rate the 4:40 at York on Tues:

Changing The Guard 98
Right Step 97
Reve De Nuit 96
Almiqdaad 95
Sirvino 92
Arlequin 90
Caldercruix 90
Red Jade 90

I have had a bet on Almiqdaad who chased the pace in his last race which earned his best speed figure, in a race that favoured those that came from off the pace. He will have to be dropped in from his wide-ish draw and I'm hoping that will suit him so that he has a bit more left for the final furlong.
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the problem is that Caldercruix will take Almiqdaad on..which could nullify both of their chances
 
i think they may go very quick with those two in it...which will very much suit last years winner Royal Destination who is just 1lb higher and the French bloke booked..will carry my 30 bob anyway
 
EC1 said:
I've not watched all the racing today yet but have calculated the figures..there seems to be a very fast 3yo handicap here

I watched the Oaks..looked a slow pace?..was F&G a slow run race as well?..overall times for those are slow..I wonder if they need a different allowance ..this happens re 12f here sometimes. Will have to run Pru's equation on those two races.

Epsom 4 June 2010 : Going +21 [Good/Firm]

OHR/SF

109 93 --BUSHMAN
100 100-TARTAN GIGHA
128 114-FAME AND GLORY
105 96--FIERY LAD
000 96--SNOW FAIRY
107 100-SHAKESPEAREAN
85 103--CANSILI STAR

Last race is particularly fast..Bushman's race was definately slow..they pulled their heads off.

I'd be interested in what you guys got :)
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going back to Cansili Star's really fast race..will revisit One Good Emperors race as well...not tonight though

If you had followed the first 5 home in each of these very fast races ..for their next 2 runs....it makes interesting reading..stop at a winner

1. Cansili Star - lost - won 7/1
2. Treadwell - won 14/1
3. Kajima - lost - won 7/1
4. Citrus Star - won 8/1
5. Nosedive - lost won 7/1

just that one race noted has made a massive level stakes profit

not bad to say the clock means nothing :whistle:

no - i didn't do them all..minds been elsewhere...i did get treadwell and Kajima eventually though
 
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bugger it - i'll put OGE's race up as well

both these race we noted here as having really big figures at the time

14 May 2010

1. One Good Emperor - lost - lost
2. Secretive - won 13/8
3. Rain On The Wind - lost
4. Onyx Of Arabia - lost - won 25/1
5. Flag Of Glory - lost - lost

interestingly the 6th horse Kensei won next time at 7/1..even the horse that finished 10th [last] Cereal killer - won next time at 9/1

not bad for a shit method :)
 
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Far from it, EC1. For what it's worth I think this is probably one of the most interesting threads I have seen since joining this forum.

Broadening the discussion somewhat, I would be interested to see if any correlation between position in a race and high speed figures exists. I have a (probably incorrect) presumption that impressive speed figures are generally posted in races dominated by hold-up performers for the simple reason that, in order to generate the pace needed to record a good speed figure, there has to be a generous early gallop that puts those racing prominently at something of a disadvantage. Perhaps there is an angle in following those that raced prominently in strong-run affairs which recorded a good speed figure?
 
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