Speed Figure calculation and usage

Gamla Stan said:
Can see where you're coming from, the Doncaster Cup was unnaturally fast on my figures, don't think the Willing Foe fig is too wrong though, the second and third have come out and won and the winner looks potentially group class.

Tricky one as the Doncaster Cup makes me think it was def quicker round the back but it's not a usual pattern at Doncaster.
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I've got to be honest..I'm miles behind with figures these last couple of months...so didn't follow the meeting at all. Its quite difficult doing these unless you have your finger on the pulse re watching them

If you think the WF figure is true and that race is really decent.. then it would make more sense..as to me its looking rogue withoutfollowing the form recently.

I use beyer method ..but still do use 15/16lb per second rather than 10.

WF hasn't run since has it?..could do with it running again
 
So to clarify, Poets Voice would have hit an unadjusted Timeform of around 129. I don't like converting though, I like to stick in my own ratings world. Start converting into BHA and Timeform's and comparing and I find it can mislead you.

I know my own Beyer figs inside out and they work well for me so prefer not to complicate it by converting them.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Correct, Beyer uses 108 as his benchmark for a typical Group One winner and works either side of that.

If you believe Mordin and other speed authors, 108 equates to a Timeform of 120.

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=...Q6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=beyer to timeform&f=false

Page 311 here has a decent table, I had the hard copy of the book but a friend borrowed it ages ago and I've never got it back!
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yes..I initailly used the 10 per second but just couldn't get used to the top figs being just 110 ish..so went back to 16

i like to have the figs sort of correlating to our OHR's..i get comfort from it :D
 
Willing Foe entered at Newmarket on Friday. Not seen the opposition but expect he'll be very short and win from the post to Denmark in a handicap!
 
Gamla Stan said:
So to clarify, Poets Voice would have hit an unadjusted Timeform of around 129. I don't like converting though, I like to stick in my own ratings world. Start converting into BHA and Timeform's and comparing and I find it can mislead you.

I know my own Beyer figs inside out and they work well for me so prefer not to complicate it by converting them.
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your fig for PV is really high then..re the 110 being G1..which its hard not to give...it clashes with the placed horses ratings..but very often this happens and the speed rating stands up..but the placed horse don't back it up later...I wonder if some horses get dragged along in these races and run above their level

there is definately something odd about races like the QE2..looks fast..but not really supported by placed horses OHR's

do we believe the time figure?..or the form rating suggested by 3rd and 4th horses..a conundrum
 
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talking of scale

I think Mordin uses the low scale to make his calcs look right to the eye..just a small deviation per race

basically he might have a card where there is only 1 or 2 of his points differing between races when he calcs his allowance..visually it makes it look more tightly packed..but 2 of his points are about 10lb I reckon

his scale now looks exactly half of the one he suggested in Mordin On Time..I think 80 odd was his top rating then
 
EC1 said:
I wonder if some horses get dragged along in these races and run above their level
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Something which isn't discussed enough imo. Look at Sea The Stars' Arc, he was the best horse in that race by way way more than the winning margin and that was a very smart speed figure.

Mordin's figs are bullshit, best use his early methodology and nothing more imo.
 
Like I say, the speed figure could have been exaggerated by Ascot. One only needs to look at the King George and a lot of the straight track heritage handicaps (a case perfectly illustrated by Redford who got smashed in group company at the weekend) to discover how big figures crop up with alarming regularity at Ascot in comparison to the actual "form".
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Something which isn't discussed enough imo. Look at Sea The Stars' Arc, he was the best horse in that race by way way more than the winning margin and that was a very smart speed figure.

Mordin's figs are bullshit, best use his early methodology and nothing more imo.
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i do believe there is drag involved in these races..but form ratings meisters don't accept it

the way Mordin is going..1 second will equal 1 point in a bit..a G1 will be rated 5 and a seller 1 :)
 
Very simply, Red Clubs clocked a 114, the best he'd clocked before was 106 (in the Jersey, also an Ascot rating) and behind that was the 104 behind Yaa Wayl at York (a course record).

Indicates to me that "drag" is definitely at play here, put it this way; How would you bet who gets nearer their respective QE2 ratings next time out; Red Jazz or Poet's Voice?
 
Gamla Stan said:
Very simply, Red Clubs clocked a 114, the best he'd clocked before was 106 (in the Jersey, also an Ascot rating) and behind that was the 104 behind Yaa Wayl at York (a course record).

Indicates to me that "drag" is definitely at play here, put it this way; How would you bet who gets nearer their respective QE2 ratings next time out; Red Jazz or Poet's Voice?
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horses are mainly chasing animals..its one thing running in a pack and trying to keep up with the pack..its another being asked to hit the front and pull away..its this thats the difference imo..Red jazz has run his heart out simply because he is chasing horses.

its definately at play in many races

as said..its one of the flaws in Av B form rating..many races can be marked down due to drag factor..when possibly they are strong races

times do help to sort these out a bit
 
EC1 said:
I'm just going to wait for Rain On The Wind..
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Is the waiting finally over? This horse has been shaping well over 1m of late but having excuses I think. A very fast horse with a good draw in the 8.10 at Wolverhampton tonight. A career-low mark, a drop back in trip and the prospect of an uncontested lead?
 
davidjohnson said:
Is the waiting finally over? This horse has been shaping well over 1m of late but having excuses I think. A very fast horse with a good draw in the 8.10 at Wolverhampton tonight. A career-low mark, a drop back in trip and the prospect of an uncontested lead?
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i might go over the cliff on this one :)
 
I presume there was a tailwind at Newmarket today - the times were faster than the track looked

83 DESERT LAW
61 ARGOCAT
98 MATOBA
109 TAZEEZ
89 MODEYRA
104 DEVER DREAM
104 DOCOFTHEBAY
95 WILLING FOE


no wfa added
+20lb per mile [Good/Firm] [probably Good}
 
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davidjohnson said:
Is the waiting finally over? This horse has been shaping well over 1m of late but having excuses I think. A very fast horse with a good draw in the 8.10 at Wolverhampton tonight. A career-low mark, a drop back in trip and the prospect of an uncontested lead?
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i've stuck 20 on at 5.6..if this runs its race should have its best chance now at 7f..been waiting for 7 for a long time:)
 
EC1 said:
won easily

not bad in jail Stan is it?:p
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Didn't actually back him as I thought he was embarrassingly short but won well, prob go to Dubai to be ruined though and pop up in a conditions race next September sadly.
 
Re sectionals - using HAFFHD as an example - these were the official sectionals in his Craven and then in the guineas..with the going corrected to nil influence

Craven
5f
63.91
Finish
98.69

Guineas
5f
60.26
Finish
97.62

he ran the craven to 5f 3.6 seconds slower than he did in the guineas..final 3f time 34.78

final 3f in the guineas 37.36

Killybegs ran his Craven up to 5f in 64.03..very similar to Haffhd..his final 3f was 34.76

this begs the question..when a horse goes slow beyond a certain point..and the horses involved are not to dissimilar in level..they are going to run the last 3f in a similar time..basically its as fast as a horse of that level can run

At Newmarket..even pace is about 60/61 seconds over the mile on perfect good ground..so both the Cravens involved above were pretty pedestrian

so does knowing the last 3f time in a slow run race tell us much basically?

Killybegs would look to have a similar chance to Haffhd if viewing those Craven times..but we know he was beaten 8 lengths in his guineas..did both he and Haffhd run that slow early in their cravens to allow both to run as fast as its possible for horses at their level in those last 3f?
 
Newmarket 16/10/10

116 RED JAZZ
121 FRANKEL
82 TWICE OVER
102 CAPE DOLLAR
99 CRYSTAL CAPELLA

no wfa added

Going: Good/Soft -23lbs per mile



Frankel 121 is now 2lbs higher than Teofilo.

by coincidence - todays ground was near identical to Teofilo's Dewhurst
 
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Hi there,

I've recentley sent EC1 a message who gave me some fantastic feedback in editing my standard times and I'd like to ask a few more of you in public.

I am trying to create some class pars, so far I've found the inter quartile range of raw times at every distance for every class in Handicap Chasers and Handicap Hurdlers (Took about 4 weeks), there's about (N>=350) in each section bar 0-160>.


There's about >=1.05 and < 2.05 second difference between each class assending from 0-85 to 0-180 but I was wondering how I could interpret this into a number range between 1.5 and 10 so that each interval inbetween is relevent of the raw time difference at each class.

Any ideas?

Thanks guys
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Hi there,

I've recentley sent EC1 a message who gave me some fantastic feedback in editing my standard times and I'd like to ask a few more of you in public.

I am trying to create some class pars, so far I've found the inter quartile range of raw times at every distance for every class in Handicap Chasers and Handicap Hurdlers (Took about 4 weeks), there's about (N>=350) in each section bar 0-160>.


There's about >=1.05 and < 2.05 second difference between each class assending from 0-85 to 0-180 but I was wondering how I could interpret this into a number range between 1.5 and 10 so that each interval inbetween is relevent of the raw time difference at each class.

Any ideas?

Thanks guys
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When you say 1.05 to 2.05 difference between classes..at what distance are you meaning?...class difference by time will vary at each distance

to simplify it you could work..per mile ..which simplifies the whole process somewhat.

for instance on the flat..at 5f a class difference between class D and C might be say 0.45 seconds...if you then convert that to a per mile difference..its 0.72 seconds.

to convert a time from 5f to a "per mile" you just divide the distance 5 by 8..so each time you bring a 5f time difference to per mile you always divide by 0.625

at 6f its 6/8..ie divide by 0.75

by bringing everything to per mile you can compare any distance time with any other distance and see straight away which is the fastest when actually compiling your speed figures

alternatively you can treat each different distance separately..but bear in mind that the time diffence between class C & D at 2 miles will be less than it is at 3 miles.
 
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