St James Palace

I'm not convinced after the Guineas, though he must rate an EW bet at 8/1.

Fast ground will suit but I wonder whether Gosden has gotten him to settle properly (good gallop should help).

As you pointed out though Euro re: Tariq, the finish at Ascot is uphill and takes some getting.
 
I have looked at the Guineas again and I don’t buy this idea that Ravens Pass was in a dire position. A bad one? Yes probably but both he and Henry started their runs in roughly the same area and at the line RP was hardly flying.

If he was ridden handier, I think his stamina would have ran out even quicker and he probably wouldn’t even have placed.

If you fancy Ravens Pass you have to fancy Twice Over, who is twice his price, guaranteed to get the mile as well. Very fast ground might be a slight worry for him.

I did say I thought Raven’s Pass was the most talented horse but this is not his trip imo…if I have doubts about one I have to have doubts about the other (Twice Over) so I will take the improving French Guineas winner Falco to chase him home.

1st Henrythenavigator
2nd Falco
3rd Stubbs Art
4th Twice Over
5th Raven’s Pass
 
With Henry so short, and no solid link between the British/Irish Guineas and French Guineas, I think it's worth taking a punt on Falco and even RDLP.
 
RDLP lost a shoe in the Derby. Not ideal preparation for this and no reason why he should reverse form with the French Guineas winner.
 
I agree Steve, and Cecil did the same thing with Dr Fong back in 98, although stats suggest you need to have run in a classic really to play a hand in the finish here (although stats are there to be broken).

My thoughts can be read here, I was originally going to side with Twice Over, but abit more diving into the form, I've decided to go with John Gosden's colt, although I will probably back the both each-way.
 
Originally posted by Jamie@Jun 16 2008, 04:42 PM
I agree Steve, and Cecil did the same thing with Dr Fong back in 98, although stats suggest you need to have run in a classic really to play a hand in the finish here (although stats are there to be broken).

My thoughts can be read here, I was originally going to side with Twice Over, but abit more diving into the form, I've decided to go with John Gosden's colt, although I will probably back the both each-way.
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Well argued as usual Jamie.

For my part I was sure Twice Over would have extended his superiority over Raven's Pass in the Guineas. I made him a close up third to the big two.

Henry will obviously be difficult to beat, but with Twice Over back at the trip he can excel at I'm sure he'll be placed and scare the living daylights out of everything.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 16 2008, 04:44 PM
RDLP lost a shoe in the Derby. Not ideal preparation for this and no reason why he should reverse form with the French Guineas winner.
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I don't think it's possible for two horses to have as different trips as Falco and RDLP in the French Guineas. Whilst Falco was able to lay up impressively on a fast pace and power away from the pack, RDLP's draw forced him way back - but that same fast pace allowed him to make an impact; alas the winner had flown.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 16 2008, 03:31 PM
I have looked at the Guineas again and I don’t buy this idea that Ravens Pass was in a dire position. A bad one? Yes probably but both he and Henry started their runs in roughly the same area and at the line RP was hardly flying.
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In fairness to Raven's Pass, he was keen early on and had to be switched wide to make his challenge.

That said, he did not look to be finishing at all like a horse that wanted a mile to me. Very similar to his run in the Dewhurst last year. Still maintain the July Cup would suit him to a tee.

If he settles tommorrow, he might not beat Henrythenavigator, but I certainly fancy him to reverse the Craven placings with Twice over.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Jun 16 2008, 06:14 PM
Still maintain the July Cup would suit him to a tee.

If he settles tommorrow, he might not beat Henrythenavigator, but I certainly fancy him to reverse the Craven placings with Twice over.
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I certainly agree his race is the July Cup (in which he could do very well).

I don't really fancy him for this though and am pretty sure Twice Over will stretch him out beyond an effective finish. I see RP fading out just as TO is kicking in.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Jun 16 2008, 06:22 PM
I don't really fancy him for this though and am pretty sure Twice Over will stretch him out beyond an effective finish. I see RP fading out just as TO is kicking in.
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Possibly, but to be honest I don't see Twice Over as having the pace over a mile on fast ground to get into this.

A lot depends on whether Raven's Pass settles.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jun 16 2008, 06:26 PM
I'm on record as saying I've gone high in my opinion of the Guineas. As such, I think Henry is unopposable.
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Having said that, I've backed Stubbs Art at 7/1 EW without Henry. Cracking value!
 
Ground not a bit of a worry for Stubbs Art? Ran well enough at the Curragh but Elsworth at the weekend said he was hoping for a drop of rain.
 
Just reading that Saeed Bin Suroor quoted as saying Rio De La Plata "really needs good or good to soft ground."

shrug::
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Jun 16 2008, 10:26 PM
Just reading that Saeed Bin Suroor quoted as saying Rio De La Plata "really needs good or good to soft ground."

shrug::
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I'm sure he got that at home in Dubai during the Winter

:laughing:
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Jun 16 2008, 06:50 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Jun 16 2008, 06:50 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Desert Orchid@Jun 16 2008, 06:26 PM
I'm on record as saying I've gone high in my opinion of the Guineas. As such, I think Henry is unopposable.
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Having said that, I've backed Stubbs Art at 7/1 EW without Henry. Cracking value! [/b][/quote]
I still don't get it about this one. He's been comprehensively beaten in two Guineas and although he's run respectably, he'll surely struggle to be placed in this.
 
Should be a straight forward task for Henry on Tuesday with everything in his favor.

I think the French horse will come in second.
 
Originally posted by SteveM+Jun 17 2008, 12:10 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SteveM @ Jun 17 2008, 12:10 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jun 16 2008, 06:50 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Desert Orchid
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@Jun 16 2008, 06:26 PM
I'm on record as saying I've gone high in my opinion of the Guineas. As such, I think Henry is unopposable.
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Having said that, I've backed Stubbs Art at 7/1 EW without Henry. Cracking value!
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I still don't get it about this one. He's been comprehensively beaten in two Guineas and although he's run respectably, he'll surely struggle to be placed in this. [/b][/quote]
For me, it's because I rate the Guineas so highly. Stimulation won the Free H'cap nicely and has close ties to other form via the Godolphin creature that beat him next time out. New Approach didn't exactly let the form down at Epsom.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jun 16 2008, 06:26 PM
I'm on record as saying I've gone high in my opinion of the Guineas. As such, I think Henry is unopposable.
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I'd have to agree..Falco for the forecast..(nothing original there).
 
Between Henry and Stubbs for me, the ground, course and pace will suit the later and I don't think there will be alot between them at the line, but I can't see a different possible forecast.
 
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