Sussex Stakes

Euronymous said:
But it kind of is mug punting i`m afraid. It`s like having a really good run at roulette or backing Chelsea or United every game. Sure you`re going to have a lot of winners but profits will kind of get wiped out in short order when the inevitable barren run occurs.
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What Euro is referring to is ROT - results orientated thinking. It's in common use when discussing poker hands - just because a bet you made was the correct play on one instance, statistically and mathematically it may not necessarily have been the correct play.

On the other hand, it's very easy to go completely the other way in search of "value" - you end up searching for and perceiving value where none actually exists - trying too hard in essence.

Sometimes the obvious answer is indeed the answer.
 
I recognise that diagnosis all too well Flagship.:D

Every year (usually around June) I find myself trying too hard and looking for things that aren't really there. That is to say I can find a horse at 33/1 that should be 16's, but it still doesn't win even though it runs better than it's price suggests it would. In essence it's still a 1 win in 16 chance. I think there's another take on the same thing and I'm normally most prone to it when in the company of others, and that concerns 'oneupmanship'. It usually manifests itself in discussion where everyone's trying to establish a hierarchy of opinions which normally involves looking for a clever slant that no one else has considered in order to make one look more knowledgable and astute. The problem with this inverse arrogance is that the percentage call is very often the obvious and invariably your first thought.

I could actually see the merits in backing Ravens Pass today, as if he were going to beat Henry over a mile, then Goodwood probably offered him his best chance. Let's be honest he was closer than ever before, and was eating into Henry's lead as they crossed the line. I would tend to regard it as a bad luck story, but still think it was the smarter bet.
 
Galileo said:
Clearly there is not that much between the pair of them, but you are backing on something going wrong with Henry for Ravens Pass to win.
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I'm not so sure. Henry was all out to win today. He has to be rated as superior to Raven's Pass on all previous form, but you would have to say that in a rematch over exactly the same CD and conditions as today, RP would have every chance of beating HTN (albreit he would be the outsider of two)

If they were 85 rated handicappers you would pretty much treat them as the same horse on today's performance - I really don't buy all this "won it cosily" nonsense just because we are talking about potential stallions....
 
Talking to Lydia on RUK after the race, Aidan suggested that the race turned into a sprint, what have the time gurus to say about that claim, is it valid?
 
Galileo said:
Some might say its a mug who would back Ravens Pass after that horse has been beaten by Henry so many times now.
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I had it Henry 1-2, RP 2-1, so couldn't resist being a mug


Good race and best 3yo miler, confirmed he was best 3yo miler

Will be interesting to see if connections step up to 10f now or stay at a mile
 
My twopenceworth:

RP got closer today because it was more like a 7f race. The pacemaker wasn't up to the job and his high head carriage suggested he wasn't up to any job, except maybe humping a giraffe. Tariq never ran his race, Major Cadeaux pulled hard for the first half mile and might even have found the ground too firm (if Hannon senior's pre-race comments were anything to go by) and Winker had a lot of improvement to find.

I felt Henry was always holding the runner up and in another five yards would probably have been starting to pull away again. This is RP's limit. He's a genuine G1 miler who wouldn't be inconvenienced by dropping to 7f, but Henry is better. It's that simple. The distances between them, in my opinion, don't reflect his superiority. I reckon if they got a truly fast pace over a mile against the very best in Europe, Henry would put at least a couple of lengths between himself and Raven's Pass. If it's a falsely run race, as it was to some extent today, then there's a chance he'll get beat.
 
I disagree - Raven's Pass ran very well to run Henrythenavigator so close in the end - he was getting there as the line approached.

The idea that the race turned into a sprint would make sense - Raven's Pass was cantering before the gap came, but just as it came, the pace quickened up and RP hit a major flat spot and struggled to quicken for a stride or two. Once he got into top gear he was gaining all the time - I wonder whether he should be stepped up slightly in trip?
 
I read the race that way too SL, I'd like to see RP stepped up but even more I'd have liked to see him leading Henry in the last couple of furlongs and trying to stretch him our of his dominance I'd like the team to be braver with him if you like, rather than letting Ballydoyle dictate the pace
 
What is the point of quoting the first two words of someone's post when the rest of the post answered the question you are asking?
 
Colin Phillips said:
Talking to Lydia on RUK after the race, Aidan suggested that the race turned into a sprint, what have the time gurus to say about that claim, is it valid?
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It wasn't a particularly fast time, and the rating I've got would be more consistent with a Listed event at best or a top handicap, which would back up O'Briens assertion and might very well go some way to explaining Ravens Pass proximity to Henry. I've made the ground riding +1.90, which is 0.26 secs quicker than yesterday. Yamal won a 0-90 handicap at a mile yesterday in a time that was -1.94 slow, Henry won in a time that was -1.26 slow. If you add the going allowance of the faster ground you get -1.52, which means Henry's only beaten Yamal by 0.42 secs. Yamal in fiarness beat his par by 0.42 secs suggetsing, so you'd probably equate Henry's time as being more consistent with a 0-105. I don't think O'Briens wrong, as clearly Henry's a Gp1 horse, but to run a time as slow as this would indicate that the early pace was slow and therefore the chances are a sprint ensued in the latter stages. Will be interested to see if they use the same pacemaker again!!! but other horses who might have be suited to a sprint didn't necessariuly distinguish themselves
 
Sounds like Henry is due to step up in trip shortly...connections talking about the Breeders Cup Classic.
 
Bred to get 10 furlongs, will handle the polytrack fine...what price would you lay him at Euro?

I would imagine either way he will probably stand at Ashford. A son of Kingmambo should be popular give his sire's problems. Leaving the likes of Duke Of Marmalade, Haradasun,Soldier Of Fortune etc to stand in Tipperary.
 
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Interesting, although they've a perfectly adequate miler on their hands so far!!!!

Would like to see Raven's Pass stepped up to 1m2f though.
 
Galileo said:
Bred to get 10 furlongs, will handle the polytrack fine...what price would you lay him at Euro?
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7 on Betfair now, seems fair (for the layer)

I don`t think his female line looks very America friendly, and with Curlin and Big Brown in the field I will lay him to lose a lot on the night if they all get there.
 
Curlin and Big Brown are not "bred" to go on the polytrack either. Its not a dirt track. I could see them run both Henry and DOM in this..SOF for the turf, US Ranger for the mile etc.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Would like to see Raven's Pass stepped up to 1m2f though.
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Weren't they talking about RP being stretched in the Guineas?

His dosage is inconclusive given how few points there are in total but I'd me more inclined to want to see him run in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (USA) b. C, 2005 DP = 13-3-18-4-0 (38) DI = 1.92 CD = 0.66

RAVENS PASS (USA) ch. C, 2005 DP = 6-3-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 CD = 1.07

Also, Steve M wrote this before the Guineas:

The John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass, runaway winner of the Group 3 Solario Stakes in a fast time, finished three lengths third in the Dewhurst, but looks to be a top of the ground horse that would not have appreciated the much softer going he experienced at Newmarket compared with his previous races. He had to settle for second best when coming up against Twice Over in the Craven on his reappearance at HQ this term. With no evident stamina points the Elusive Quality colt may prove effective at distances up to a mile rather than further and although he has proved entitled to take part at the distance may just be stretched to fully see out the required trip even on decent going.
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Henry's figures suggest he should be not be inconvenienced by stepping up to 10f.
 
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Only change in distance for RP will be down in trip. Is he even entered in anything over 10 furlongs? Breeders Cup mile should suit him well.
 
To be quite frank DO - and no offence meant at all! - what the dosage says means the square root of feck all to me, that much relevance I think it has!

I am commenting on watching the way the horse runs - he hit a definite flat spot when the pace quickened and took a few strides to get going again. He was gaining all the time in the dying strides of the race yet couldn't handle the turn of foot of the leaders to start with. I'd like to see him tried at a little further - let's face it, Goodwood is hardly the easiest of tracks at which to get a trip so if his stamina is that dodgy why would he race the way he did today and be staying on best at the death?
 
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