The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

milo said:
Galileo , those 3 horses FSITS, STS, and Island Sands, all won their last 2 races before the Guineas , and all were unbeaten apart from STSs who was 4th in his first race as a 2yo.
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Sorry I do not see your point?

I was referring to the question as to how many Racing Post Trophy winners have won the Guineas? How many Beresford Stakes, Killavullen Stakes etc winners have won the Guineas - winning those races which are not recognised trials like the Craven, Dewhurst etc did not stop the named horses.
 
Whats more, with more and more Galileos and Montjeus dominating the breed right now there is every chance that more and more classy types will be taking in the 1 mile juvenile races yet go on and compete in the 2000 Guineas.
 
Sea The Stars beat Mourayan though in the Beresford..he wasn't a going to be a miler ..so just on that one example I would say its not a counter to the RP Trophy angle.

Generally horses that win 8f at 2 are going to need a sterner test than the the guineas..the nature of the Donny race in particular is one of stamina..how many 10f/12f/14f 3yo's has it produced over the years?..a lot. SNA has won all his 2yo races over 8f..hardly the profile of a guineas winner

It may the the case that SNA can win a guineas..but he doesn't fit the profile to me..particularly as the guineas will probably be on fast ground.
 
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EC1 said:
Sea The Stars beat Mourayan though in the Beresford..he wasn't a going to be a miler ..so just on that one example I would say its not a counter to the RP Trophy angle.
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I am confused, I thought that was your point that by winning the RP St Nic beat horses of Mourayan's type i.e stayers and not milers.
 
not really..but it obviously comes into it..my main point was that the RP Trophy as a race on its own demands more stamina than speed from a 2yo to win it..in general it flags up 3yo's that are going to want 10f+..its history of winners does demonstrate that.

Traditionally through the years the Dewhurst has been a fair test for the guineas..RP Trophy a fair test for Derby.

SNA is very unusual in that all his 2yo races were over a mile..that doesn't suggest a speed horse..I wonder how many Guineas winners ran all their 2yo races at 8f?
 
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Hi EC

Of course your typical RP Trophy winner doesn't have the profile of a Guineas winner. But I don't think we are talking a typical RP Trophy winner. As Gal points out, the most striking aspect of both St Nicholas Abbey's group wins has been the potent turn of foot he's shown in races that weren't truly run.

I was all over Elusive Pimpernel for the Racing Post Trophy. His form was much stronger and looked sure to be suited by the step up in trip. I was rather smug as he sat close up with St Nicholas Abbey dropped out the back but he was thoroughly outclassed by a far superior horse.

I jusy hope O'Brien has enough respect for the horse to get him to Newmarket in A1 shape, because if we do I think we'll see something special.
 
showing a turn of foot in a slow run 8f race as a 2yo isn't quite the same as winning a 6 or 7f race as a 2yo though imo David...which is waht Gal thought my argument was about..it partly is because those races even when slowly run aren't testing for speed against the type of horses within those races.

SNA may well be something special of course..but his profile to me doesn't shout 2000g
 
In betting order opposition to SNA.
EPimp (EW chance )
CC ( will he stay )
Awzaan ( looks like a sprinter to me )
Xtension (sire not renown for topclass horses, EW chance )
Fencing Master ( i like this horse , but will O Brien have him fully tuned ? ).
Inler ( once raced Maiden winner )
 
I'll be going for that e/w on XTENSION, but mainly because the owners are Brightonians and very likeable chaps - and one of them is Irish, if that helps! They are beside themselves with amazement that they have a horse this good!
 
I'm taking SNA on in the guineas as think although what he did in the RP trophy was very impressive I think things fell into his lap with the way the race was run on perfect ground for him. I'm really not convinced he is going to act on good to firm ground and whether he will have trained on from 2-3 is a very big question for me personally.
 
1) I don't see how it could have suited him being held up off a slow pace in the RP Trophy - closers always want it quick in front.

2) Ground is a concern for me too.

3) Very rare for a top O'Brien 2 year old not to train on, particularly one with his breeding and whats more if they had any concerns about him I doubt he would be lining up in the Guineas - he'd be aimed at a Derby trial to give him more time. The vibes have been very positive about him this week.


Kauto said:
I'm taking SNA on in the guineas as think although what he did in the RP trophy was very impressive I think things fell into his lap with the way the race was run on perfect ground for him. I'm really not convinced he is going to act on good to firm ground and whether he will have trained on from 2-3 is a very big question for me personally.
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I think there are enough examples of top class horses with pedigrees that suggested they'd be better over further - New Approach, Giants Causeway and Azamour are three recent examples, being beaten in the Guineas by animals who ended up being inferior to them in terms of their overall form to suggest that SNA should be taken on. Of course if he ends up being closer in talent to Sea the Stars than the ones i've named he'll have enough of a class advantage for it not to matter.
 
In theory yes, but my issue with SNA is his price given the doubts I have about him. We also have animals like Golan winning the Guineas despite his pedigree...but that only happens if a generation of terrible milers is thrown together. Which is a distinct possibility this year imo.
 
Arcano misses the Guineas so Hills rides Awzaan. A positive or a negative for the Johnson horse?
 
betsmate said:
Arcano misses the Guineas so Hills rides Awzaan. A positive or a negative for the Johnson horse?
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It would have to be an overall positive for the horse as it gives Hill's the chance to familiarise himself with the horse as a 3 year old, and as Dicky is likely to be on him in future races it can only be a positive for the horse.

If your asking will it help him win the Guineas then I don't know!
 
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