The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

milo said:
The 2000G is looking weaker by the hour.
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I can't agree with this at all, Elusive Pimpernel ran a great race last week, and St Nicholas Abbey and Awzaan looked top notch juveniles last autumn. Fencing Master is relatively unexposed and performed really well in the Dewhurst and could be a top horse before the season is over. It could even turn out to be a very good Guineas field.
 
Fencing Master may turn out to be very good but do you believe OB will have him fully tuned for the Guineas especially if they want SNA to win ?
 
I'd wonder whether they can get Fencing Master fit enough for the first week of May regardless of SNA. When he ran at Dundalk last autumn, he was like a beef bullock.
 
Therefore, you can take him out of calculations, when i said a weak Guineas, i did not mean long term, i meant in relation to opposition to SNA.
 
Fencing Master will plenty be fit enough to do himself justice - he will be the insurance if SNA does not perform on a faster surface.
 
EC1, In what context do you use dosage ? Do you find it a help in making your selections?
 
If Mr Miller is about, i would like to ask will Special Duty stay the mile at Newmarket according to dosage figures ?
 
milo said:
EC1, In what context do you use dosage ? Do you find it a help in making your selections?
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I've dabbled with it in past Milo..but on these occasions i like to ask someone that knows what he is on about:).. to give his view. Steve usually is on the ball..he was last year re guineas i seem to remember
 
Steves opinion on Canford.

Canford Cliffs is by Tagula out of a Marju mare. Marju has an AWD of 9.2 for his progeny and Tagula an AWD of 7.1. The Dosage points total of just 10 is too low for an accurate reading, but as two of those points appear in the stamina wing of his profile (deriving from Busted, fourth generation) there is a fair chance that he will have sufficient stamina to get a mile.
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Personally I think the dosage stuff is waffle.
 
I don't think that is a valid comparison. Form ratings are based on what a horse has achieved. Dosage is some kind of equation that claims to quantify the amount of stamina passed through the generations.

Steve reckons Canford might get a mile because Busted is back on Tagulas pedigree on the dam side !
 
when a horse hasn't run at a trip you only have pedigree analysis to use though..the dosage isn't supposed to be a tool for handicapping anyway..but in a situation where you are trying to guage a horse's potential ..it can be a tool worth referring to.

no it isn't always going to be right.

handicap ratings do measure what a horse has done in the past..does that always mean they will do it again though?...does it tell you how often in future they will run to that level?

my take is..without hard evidence..any help is better than none.
 
I don't agree with the comparison but i do think if you can cover as many theories in your deliberations as possible it's a good thing.

However as regards trying to gage whether a horse will get a distance you can see the horse running styles. You may be able to see the distance stats for the stallion and mare as race horses. You can see what distance their progeny where effective over.These things you can consider. Imo you cannot calculate what genes where passed from previous generations by using a mathematical equation. Nature isn't that predictable.
 
I know what you are saying..even sire stats are misleading as they don't give a full picture either.

its all about degrees of predictivity isn't it?

i still think something is better than nothing

CC is a classic example of a horse that many think doesn't stay ..but if you look at the two races he has lost they were ..both after a break..was it the break that made him run below par..was it he doesn't stay...was it he has a problem..there could be many reasons for those two losses..but most people take the most visual route and say..looks like he doesn't stay.

It wouldn't surprise me that come guineas day he could show that Ascot form from last year and win by 5..people will then be scratching head..thought he didn't stay etc. Then we could hear trainer say..ooh not had him right since Ascot..needed first run this year etc....always thought he was best i had had though.

lots of guessing isn't there?
 
Latest stage...

Al Zir (USA)
Arcano (IRE)
Arry's Orse
Audacity of Hope
Awzaan
Buzzword
Canford Cliffs (IRE)
Dick Turpin (IRE)
Dubawi Phantom
Elspeth's Boy (USA)
Elusive Pimpernel (USA)
Fair Trade
Fencing Master
Fighting Brave (USA)
Free Judgement (USA)
Greyfriarschorista
Hearts of Fire
Inler (IRE)
Iver Bridge Lad
Lord Zenith
Makfi
Meezaan (IRE)
Poet's Voice
Red Jazz (USA)
St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)
Viscount Nelson (USA)
Xtension
 
RE: Canford Cliffs: King's Best also veered terribly to the left after leading in the Craven didn't he...and then he was buried in the pack in the Guineas and won. He also didn't look like a star on his final 2yo start.
 
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