The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

Aragorn said:
I wonder what Seamie Heffernan thinks? To be fair on last year O'Donoghue deserves it but I would have thought Heffernan would have got the Viscount Nelson ride.
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It has always been their policy to use the best available jockey. Alan Munro, Jimmy Fortune and Soumillion have all come in for Group 1 rides ahead of the other Ballydoyle jockeys so I think its fair to say people are reading too much into it .
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Depends on the weights they're carrying...
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...Indeed, and also whether they are suited as lead horses in work. A work horse that does a job can stretch the best of them, as they are made to make use of themselves. In an actual race they may well be no match for the horse they are helping.
 
SteveM said:
...Indeed, and also whether they are suited as lead horses in work. A work horse that does a job can stretch the best of them, as they are made to make use of themselves. In an actual race they may well be no match for the horse they are helping.
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a, Campanologist was not the lead, he was the other main companion in the work.

b, he always works over 8f, its the furthest most horses work

c, to go double figure lengths clear of a group 2 winner and a group 1 performer regardless of whether he is a 10 - 12f type is impressive, regardless of trip

d, Al Zir left the lead standing 15+ L and that is a lead Godolphin have used for the past 5 years as a massive guide and never before have they had a horse manage to shrug him off more than 5L.

e, weights were similar

f, you're theory on the basis of should be able to go clear would leave me very worried if I had backed Seta for a classic, given she has been driven hard to go 2L clear of a 73 rated performer (will be raised after a win on Monday) in a recent gallop.

The vibes from Ireland suggest SNA work companions are not even listed / group winners but are listed + performers. Reports suggest he has worked markedly better than them, but it was confirmed he and Beethoven had never worked together in a recent interview. The message we had was he was working very well with Don Carlos and Fencing Master of which the former was not sited in a sales race last time. Granted he has done it on the track, I think you'll see a completely different Al Zir on Saturday.

:)
 
I think is about time that lead horse is given a well deserved retirement.

For what is worth I am on Awzaam for the Guineas.
 
LBM said:
I think is about time that lead horse is given a well deserved retirement.

For what is worth I am on Awzaam for the Guineas.
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Roskilde has tried to be retired twice and he hates it. He loves going out with the string and enjoys his exercise.
 
Yes Gareth, I think he will stay. He might not be as a scopy type as SNA, but I would be very disappointed if his trainer wouldn´t get him 100% fit for the race, which might not be the case with the son of Montjeu. I remember MJ´s wife on an interview during the Dubai Carnival giving very good reviews about their Tapeta training grounds and how easy had been to keep their horses cantering during the cold spell in winter. The market doesn´t seem to be very strong on him, but I think he has a good chance.
 
Well Flame. I respect your judgement and good luck with your bet, but I don´t feel as strongly as you are about that gallop.
 
I'd rather go on what horses have shown on the racecourse than the gallops and SNA hammered Al Zir and I can't see where the reversal is going to come from.

I've come back into the Canford camp though, the time of the Dick Turpin race was sensational and assuming he is rerouted to France or Ireland, I'll be backing Canford with EW savers on Xtension and Fencing Master as the Dewhurst has been overlooked because of the winner. Take Beethoven out of the race and Fencing Master would be half the price.
 
Fencing Master cut across the boards today.

Referring to an earlier post - I would be really surprised if Fencing Master worked with SNA once the pecking order was established last season.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'd rather go on what horses have shown on the racecourse than the gallops and SNA hammered Al Zir and I can't see where the reversal is going to come from.

I've come back into the Canford camp though, the time of the Dick Turpin race was sensational and assuming he is rerouted to France or Ireland, I'll be backing Canford with EW savers on Xtension and Fencing Master as the Dewhurst has been overlooked because of the winner. Take Beethoven out of the race and Fencing Master would be half the price.
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It's a good point that St Nicholas Abbey beat him 6L last year, but they are now more mature, also you're making reference to a race on tacky ground. Al Zir is bred to appreciate a sounder or faster surface, whilst SNA is bred for cut. SNA 2nd time out made hard work of a weak race on faster ground, so whilst impressive with underfoot conditions at Doncaster, we do not know he is capable of the same level of form on faster ground. Where as Al Zir was mightily impressive on quick ground twice before not finding a great deal on slower ground. The improvement will therefore come in the shape of the improvement he has made from two to three (he looks much better at home) and also that he will be running on ground he actually wants.
 
Flame said:
It's a good point that St Nicholas Abbey beat him 6L last year, but they are now more mature, also you're making reference to a race on tacky ground. Al Zir is bred to appreciate a sounder or faster surface, whilst SNA is bred for cut. SNA 2nd time out made hard work of a weak race on faster ground, so whilst impressive with underfoot conditions at Doncaster, we do not know he is capable of the same level of form on faster ground. Where as Al Zir was mightily impressive on quick ground twice before not finding a great deal on slower ground. The improvement will therefore come in the shape of the improvement he has made from two to three (he looks much better at home) and also that he will be running on ground he actually wants.
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Did he not hammer a subsequent Group 1 Godolphin winner in this race?
 
Narcotic Nora said:
Did he not hammer a subsequent Group 1 Godolphin winner in this race?
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The only winner to come from that race, and Passion Of Gold was only a couple of lengths behind him in that race, so hardly hammered, and Al Zir would be streets better than Passion Of Gold.
 
Flame said:
The only winner to come from that race, and Passion Of Gold was only a couple of lengths behind him in that race, so hardly hammered, and Al Zir would be streets better than Passion Of Gold.
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Based on one gallop you have completely changed your view on the horse from last year - surely that in itself must raise some doubts.
 
Galileo said:
Based on one gallop you have completely changed your view on the horse from last year - surely that in itself must raise some doubts.
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Where have I said its from one gallop ??? He has improve since the start of March when he returned to Newmarket. He has impressed in his last 4 gallops, and the past two under Frankie. He is of the opinion, he is better at this stage in his career than Dubai Millennium.
 
I've been sucked in by the gallops stuff far too many times before myself. Not doubting you btw Flame, just would rather go by the form in the book myself.

Loving the confidence though!
 
I just find it so remarkable that you have so much faith in a horse that I remember debating with you - I said he looked their top horse - you said he would not be in their top ten.
 
It's a good Guineas this year. A good colt will win it. Al Zir seems to be the best Godolphin has and he is ideally suited to the trip. I'd question whether he was quite good enough in this company though.
 
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