The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

davidjohnson said:
It would be dangerous to assume St Nicholas Abbey can't run a fast time at a mile on the basis that he hasn't had the opportunity to do so.
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I completely agree but I still would rather take him on EW with horses who have proved they can run fast times at a mile at bigger prices.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'm definitely siding with the Dewhurst/Greenham form over the RP Trophy/Craven form myself; on the clock it's not even a contest. The fav is a worthy fav but I'd much rather take him on EW with 2 or 3 others than back him.

Wish I'd snapped up the 33s on Betfair for Dick Turpin now.
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I was thinking that Dick T might be switched to either Ireland or France, but he looks like taking part. Very strong vibes for his stablemate.
 
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3.05pm - St Nicholas Abbey, Fencing Master & Viscount Nelson
St Nicholas Abbey seems to be in good form, his preparation has gone well and he has thrived through the winter. Obviously it is his first run of the season and like all of our horses he should improve from the run but he is naturally a very fit, athletic horse and we are looking forward to seeing him run.
Fencing Master seems to be well also, his preparation has also gone very well, he is ready to start back and we hope that he runs well.
Viscount Nelson has had a run already this year. We think that he has come forward from his run, we are very happy with him and hope that he runs a good race.
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We have to learn to decipher the code.

"We hope that he runs well" is less positive, I think, than "we hope he runs a good race". And "ready to start back" appears to be the equivalent in O'Brien speak of not being race fit.

"Looking forward to seeing him run" is positive.
 
Better than most of his 'bulletins' - only one " just ready to start back."

I'm sure he loves that website. Does he have any communication with the media whatsoever outside of at the races and the rare interview or two?

edit: snap Grey! :D
 
I think the "naturally very fit" quote is interesting as he is the type of horse that strikes me as the type that needs very little work to get fit as he appears to be a pretty edgy type. Different sort altogether than the likes of Mastercraftsman and some of the other horses they brought to the races that looked in need of the outing.
 
Galileo said:
I think the "naturally very fit" quote is interesting as he is the type of horse that strikes me as the type that needs very little work to get fit as he appears to be a pretty edgy type. Different sort altogether than the likes of Mastercraftsman and some of the other horses they brought to the races that looked in need of the outing.
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Interesting Fencing Master got the "ready to start off" treatment. Far bulkier type by all accounts (without having seen either in the flesh). He reminds me so much of Oratorio it's untrue. Did Oratorio have a setback before his Guineas by the way or am I thinking of Duke Of Marmalade?

I can't understand why O'Brien can't be a bit more detailed. Remember a while back Johnston gave the update on Awzaan and mentioned everything from galloping companions to weight to plans etc. Nothing that could prove damaging to the horse's potential as a stallion but really interesting stuff nonetheless. I know Johnston is at the other end of the spectrum with regards to information and that most are more towards O'Brien that Johnston with regards to giving bulletins etc.
 
We could of course be reading too much between the lines. At Ballydoyle they have a big red book with sets of stock phrases that they alternate until they get back to the beginning… or so I’ve heard. :)
 
I haven't been concentrating on racing much the past few weeks but have been more and more keen on Al Zir this week, and glad to see Chris's comments - I think if the ground is good to firm he'll have a great chance, and I would make SNA a place lay on the same ground.
 
On what basis have people decided Sna won't go on the ground. I have seen nothing in his action that would suggest that.
 
Breeding would tend to (without being anyway conclusive) suggest easier ground should suit better plus how well he went on this in the RP Trophy. It does leave a doubt, and there should be no doubts about a horse his price in the Guineas, when there is credible opposition such as Xtension, Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Awzaan, Fencing Master, Al Zir etc.
 
I wouldn't be worried about SNA on good ground. He may be even better than on easy going. He has a good action.
 
Sheikh said:
On what basis have people decided Sna won't go on the ground. I have seen nothing in his action that would suggest that.
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It isn't a case of him acting on the ground, it's that fast conditions play more to the strengths of the speedier miler types. New Approach would have won his Guineas if the ground had been softer, but he still acted on a fast surface.
 
Plenty seem to agree - well backed for Epsom today.

SteveM said:
I think 7/4 against for the Derby now is probably better value than 6/4 for the Guineas... I still think he's clear favourite for the Guineas, but right now his Derby bid looks compelling.
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ANOTHER mainly dry day at Newmarket on Thursday resulted in the ground description for the Guineas meeting being amended to good to firm - losing the ‘good in places' addendum - but rain was forecast to hit the track on Thursday night, with more to follow on Friday evening.
"It was dry this morning and I have changed the ground to good to firm right the way through," clerk of the course Michael Prosser reported on Thursday afternoon.
"We have had a light shower this afternoon and we expect further showers later on, and through the evening, accumulating another 1-2mm tonight."
Prosser added: "We will have a dry start to Friday and more rainfall from Friday night into Saturday. We are looking at somewhere in the region of 6mm for Friday and Saturday.
"Temperatures willbe 15C on Saturday and 12C on Sunday."

Source: RP website
 
...seems O'Brien agrees with the pair of us in today's paper... maybe he does know a thing or two after all. :)
 
I think once the forecast rain arrives he should be fine on the good surface - but I would say I do not remember O'Brien ever saying a horse of his needs some ease!
 
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