The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

Very upbeat vibes from the owners (and trainer!) of XTENSION, who has exactly the draw they wanted and wished for as it's been a winning position before. Don't forget his damsire is GRAND LODGE, close runner-up to MISTER BAILEYS in this race. Make of this what you will. I'll be off to William Hills Emporium of Chance tomorrow to add my few last pennies to his satchel, but this is very much not without a fighting chance.
 
Personally, I've got reservations about whether Awzaan will get the mile. I also think the Middle Park was set up for him and Radiohead with neither Poets Voice and Showcasing settling fully.
 
There are reasons to have reservations that he'll get a mile. There is a lot of speed in his pedigree. However, Johnston is very confident he'll get it.
 
Galileo said:
Evens now with Ladbrokes and Corals - will he go odds on? TDK be interested to know is it the bookies just taking no chances or is it serious money.
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Serious money. We had several bets of 4 or 5 figures being offered up yesterday and today at 6-4, 11-8 and 5-4. My guess is Tabor and the boys are getting as much as they possibly can on at odds against.

Fascinating there has been no real hype from Coolmore about this horse - no second hand car salesman talk about July Cups or 6 gears etc - that leads me to believe that they really think this is a very special horse.

Really good Guineas to look forward to tomorrow...
 
Thanks tdk that is the vibes I have been getting today as well chatting to a couple of people.

Lets hope for a really good winner either way tomorrow to get the season off with a bang.
 
It is highly unusual for a superstar to emerge season after season. There are several good horses running this weekend and my strategy is to assume that some will have a chance that is better than their price because of the search for a superstar.
I join Krizon in thinking Xtension can win tomorrow and have backed accordingly. Though some days ago I had a fair sum on SNA it was as cover for an ew bet. Definitely does the distance and will be in the shakeup
 
Tout Seul said:
It is highly unusual for a superstar to emerge season after season.
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Is it that unusual, TS?

We had Nijinsky then a real double whammy with Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef in consecutive seasons, didn't we?

Flyingbolt and Arkle were contemporaries. Now Master Minded and Kauto Star.

Maybe 'superstar' is the issue. Do we confer the title too readily these days?

It may well be that SNA is a 130-133 horse up against 125-128 horses, in which case he'll be seen as high class, yet if the others were 120-124s he'd be a superstar.

I said a couple of seasons back we were entering a golden era. I think this is a continuation of it.

As far as today's race is concerned, I'm undecided as yet.

I'm still inclined to believe the Dewhurst, rather than the RPT, is the key. I can see SNA doing everything right and finding a top miler - maybe two - a touch too good on the day yet running the perfect prep for a demolition job at Epsom.

I'm also quite swayed by Flame's enthusiasm for Al Zir, which brings us back to the RPT. Its run prior to Doncaster suggested it was top class and Jim McGrath said this morning that Godolphin don't think he ran his race there. They seem quite happy to take the favourite on again and 20/1 looks very big.

For those who were blown away by Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot, I should say that my time figure for him that day was 104 unadjusted, compared with Awzaan's 109, Fencing Master and Extension's 108, and 107 for SNA and Elusive Pimpernel later in the season. Maybe CC is just speedier and was more mature at that stage of his juvenile season. I don't know but I'd have to say CC is one of the first I'd rule out among the fancied runners.

I'm very tempted to go with Fencing Master. It went into the Dewhurst almost devoid of course experience and ran a blinder, possibly from a favourable draw, a remark that would also apply to Xtension.

Nevertheless, I have St Nick 6lbs and more clear. I just wonder if he might need a trip this season to replicate it. I have Al Zir, Awzaan, Dick Turpin, Elusive Pimpernel, Fencing Master and Xtension all within a length of each other but on ratings that you wouldn't mind your leading fancy having going into an average Guineas, in the expectaion of finding a good few pounds' improvement to take them into the genuine Group 1 band.

I suppose the draw might well be a factor too, given the size of the field, which would give further reason to oppose Canford Cliffs (drawn 4). It might also be a reason to oppose Awzaan (2) and Elusive Pimpernel (1). I wouldn't, however, let it put me off Al Zir (10), Dick Turpin (11) or even Fencing Master (9).

I'll need to think about it a bit more...
 
Anyone whose case against St Nicholas Abbey relies on him being foaled the year after Sea The Stars really is clutching at straws.
 
Think people are forgetting we have had 2 superstars in a row Zarkava and then Sea the Stars it could also be argued there is 3 taking into account Zenyatta.
 
Without SNA it's incredibly competitive. But I see Johnston is extraordinarily bullish saying yesterday that he wouldn't be satified with second or third and was going there to win with Awzaan (trainer has great record in the race with less than a handful of runners). Canford Cliffs and Fencing Master are the other two that should run huge races, while the going is said to favour EP and Xtension.
 
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SteveM said:
It's statistically meaningless Kauto.
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Agreed but people harping on about how you cant have a superstar and then another one the following season goes to show doesn't it. Anyway I'm still laying SNA for what it's worth and have gone as far as place laying him as well. Gonna have a little each way on Elusive Pimpernel and Awzaan at the prices.
 
Everything has its price. While I can see the logic for a place lay on SNA, I won't be following you in on that. I see they are referring to "uncanny" echoes of 1971, culminating in Awzaan beating EP three lengths.

SNA = My Swallow
EP = Mill Reef
Awzaan = Brigadier G

But if we have to start looking for clues here we're in serious trouble!
 
I couldnt be backed SNA at the prices (I have him at decent ones for the Derby) and I think 7/1 Elusive P win/place is pretty fair as I find it hard to see him out of the top three.

Awzaan has stamina issues and to be honest when I look at the Middle Park form I am just not sure he is good enough anyway...Radiohead closing in on him in a bunch finish.

Canford Cliffs is a non stayer for me and possibly not good enough anyway.

Fencing Master is very capable but closer I get to the race the closer I think he will do a mighty impression of his sire's effort in this race behind Footstepsinthesand (tailed off early but staying on strong to grab 4th/5th).

Al Zir is a horse I really like and could see him go well today and grab a place or challenge for the win if the favour disappoints.

St Nicholas Abbey to win with EP, AZ and FM to finish in that order. Simple!
 
Not sure what the omens are but Adam Kirby left Lingfield yesterday, heading for the carpark, then came back in seconds later. "Left me key behind," he muttered, going back to the jockeys' room. Then drove away in the car, minus a numberplate. Just hope he doesn't turn up at Doncaster...
 
You could argue that statistically you are more likely to have a bunch of superstars all at once, if you take into account that there might be a particularly good broodmare sire or sire of sires making that happen, surely ?
 
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