The 2015 2-y-o thread.

This is a really important thread and that was illustrated by last year. Col had Zebedee in front of us before most pundits had got out of bed on the matter. He also highlighted the dominance of Kodiac, especially on the soft, which must have given people who took note lots of winners. This year, with the prevailing firm ground, things are proving different but that is being pointed out here too.
As I said at the start of the season my favourite thread which I read every day and add to if I think I have something worth saying. More strength to Col's elbow.

I don't get surprised when he doesn't mention a winner by a non-FSS in his write-ups, as for example why didn't he mention Husbandry in the Salisbury heat? By Paco Boy, who is chugging along reasonably, out of a mare who has produced a good winners to runners ratio. As it was (!) he got beaten by Gutaifan but it was by only a short head and he should improve being by Paco and probably get further. Col can't mention everything nor should he blame himself if he doesn't.
 
Yesterday

Cork 2.25

The favourite Gift Wrap ran unbelievably poorly, she was slowly away but never looked like getting into contention. The race went to Shrill winning on debut with an impressive turn of foot; Planchart , another making her debut, at 25/1 was apparently unfancied but outrun those odds keeping on well to take second.

Doncaster 3.40

Dessertoflife stepped up on her debut fourth at this course earlier in the month, the `13/8 favourite was always prominent and went clear in the final furlong.

Salisbury 4.35

Gutaifan confirmed the good impression he created on his debut second to Strong Challenge, well supported at 4/7 he was all out to hold the strong challenge of Husbandry by a short-head.

Today

Carlisle 2.15

First season sire Frozen Power has two in this, Freeze A Crowd (green on her debut at Pontefract she never got into the race) and Madame Barker (making her debut - is a half-sister to Dickie's Lad, a useful handicapper on artificial surfaces). Livella Fella, narrowly beaten at Pontefract a week ago, is a half-sister to Gatamalat second in a Listed race at the Curragh as a 2-y-o. Searanger, trained by Ann Duffield (who's doing well with her 2-y-os lately), is a half-brother to Quick Ride who achieved a RPR of 95 racing in the US of A.

Nottingham 6.10

Ahdaf, a half-brother to Group 3 winner New Providence, disappointed in a small race at Brighton last time. Comparinka, a half-sister to two fair animals, ran a satisfactory race on debut when second to Risk Adjusted at Hamilton. Buffalo Soldier, making his debut, is a half-brother to two winners, one of them, Ready, a winner of five handicaps over 7-8f. Cool Image is a half-sister to Beacon, winner of the 2014 Group 2 Flying Childers but be aware that Derek Shaw's record with 2-y-os is dire.

Windsor 6.20

This should go to Alkhor (4/9) he was second on debut to War Whisper. Blackdown Warrior is of some interest, by Showcasing he is a half-brother to four winners including Tiger Reigns a smart mile handicapper.

Sligo 6.30

FSS Zoffany has two in this, Miss Phillyjinks, a respectable fifth behind Miss Elizabeth at Fairyhouse last time and Dilly Daydream who is making her debut. Reinas Queen, never involved on debut at Listowel, is a full-sister to Acushladear winner of three races and fourth in a Listed race at the Curragh.

Windsor 6.50

A seller with little interest from a breeding point of view. Kumanavsumfun's third to Sixties Sue at Lingfield looks decent form.
 
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Danoli said:

Zoffany 8/11 (from 4/6) - 6 wins, 27 runs
Canford Cliffs 13/8 (from 6/4) - 4 wins, 27 runs
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 (from 10/3) - 4 wins, 43 runs
Dream Ahead 10/1 (from 6/1) - 1 win, 13 runs
Roderic O'Connor 10/1 (from 8/1) - 2 wins, 14 runs
Frozen Power 11/1 (from 10/1) - 2 wins, 17 runs
Poet's Voice 12/1 (from 11/1) - 2 wins, 18 runs
Pour Moi 22/1 (from 25/1) - no win, 1 run
Dick Turpin 100/1 - no win, 10 runs
Click to expand...

No big news this week, all RaceBets odds for the champion FSS are unchanged from above. In the table by wins Dream Ahead is now on 2 wins, too. Number of runs have obviously increased slightly here and there without any success bar the Dream Ahead one.
 
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Not a card for me to get heavily involved but like the look of the Haggis trained War Department in the Coventry and have taken the 9\1 with Skybet.

From FFS Frozen Power and won comfortably on debut at Leicester over 6f on Good to firm ground.

RP race Comment
Slowly into stride, held up, headway over 2f out, shaken up to lead 1f out, ran on well, impressive
Click to expand...

SL race Comment
Slowly into stride, soon in touch, smooth headway over 2f out, chased leaders going well 2f out, 2nd over 1f out, led inside final furlong, soon pushed along and quickened clear, easily
Click to expand...

The highlighted comments stand out and trainer Haggis has been in great form.
 
Yesterday

Carlisle 2.15

Kelly's Dino did well to win this considering he missed the break and ran green, exactly the same comments apply to the runner-up Market Choice. The pace set by the leaders probably too strong.

Nottingham 6.10

Debutant Shawaahid just got the better of the favourite Field Of Vision close home.

Windsor 6.20

Alkhor the 2/7 favourite didn't win with the ease that those odds suggested he would, having to be pushed out to get the better of Raj To Riches.

Sligo 6.30

A disappointing effort from the even-money favourite, Stanley Daley who looked beaten before half-way. The winner Rathbride Raven stayed on well for pressure.

Windsor 6.50

Silver Springs tried to make all and it was only close home that the 6/4 favourite Kumanavsumfun got the better of her.

Today

Thirsk 2.20

Star Focus, third on her debut at Hamilton, is a half-sister to Magritte a winner in Group and Listed company in Italy. Early Bird, a newcomer, is a half-sister to Neebras who was a winner of a Listed race at Goodwood.

Ascot 3.05 - Coventry Stakes

Two first season sires with runners, Poet's Voice - Ode To Evening a winner of a maiden at Ripon last time and Frozen Power - War Department a very convincing winner on debut at Leicester. I don't think I'm going to get involved in this but 'with a gun to my head' I'd favour Air Force Blue, a winner on debut at the Curragh from Rockaway Valley an impressive winner since.

That's all I've time for at the moment, if I survive my dental appointment.........I'll be back?
 
Thanks, Ptp but I'm afraid it didn't, he removed part of the tooth but couldn't get the rest without cutting flesh and bone and with my medical history he thought it best to refer me to the hospital!!!!!

Onward but unlikely that it will be upward.

Ascot 5.35 Windsor Castle

First season sires; Zoffany has two - Stamp Hill who has been a little disappointing in his two runs and Washington DC winner of a small race at Tipperary before running second to Round Two in a Listed at the Curragh last time; Dream Ahead has Dream Dreamer running, Dream dreamer was dreadfully disappointing at Bath last time. Much too difficult for me to sort out but it would be pleasing if Steady Pace gives a boost to the King Of Rooks line of form.

Beverley 6.15

FSS Zoffany has a runner - Freddie Freeloader didn't show a lot, probably due to greenness, at Goodwood on debut. Champagne City fourth in a decent York maiden on debut is a half-brother to a shed-full of winners, best of them being I'm So Lucky a smart handicapper for Mark Johnston before going jumping. Tawakkol is the even-money favourite, he is rather exposed having had four runs but his last two efforts at York are of a decent standard he is also a half-brother to three black-type horses, one of them Day Of Consent was placed in the Horris Hill as a 2-y-o, he is also a full-brother to Daylight the winner of three races.

Brighton 6.30

FSS Poet's Voice is represented by the debutant Whitman. Raj To Riches, second last night, is due to run again. Show Stealer a Showcasing filly is worth keeping an eye on.
 
Ouch, sorry to hear that.

I've chosen Dutch mist in the 2.20 at Thirsk. Finished it's race really strongly last time and only beaten 2 lengths. SHould have the idea now and hopefully enough speed to overcome the favourite.
 
Yesterday

Thirsk 2.20

Dutch Mist rewarded heavy market support to get up inside the final furlong.

Ascot 3.05

Buratino followed up his impressive Epsom win, coming with a strong run to cut down Air Force Blue, who was travelling like a winner, inside the final furlong. A good race for Johnston M. with three of the first five home coming from his yard. (Feel I should give a mention to EC1 here, he has been singing the praises of Buratino since the horse won at Chelmsford very early in the season).

Ascot 5.35

Washington DC was a winner for first season sire Zoffany. He was all out to hold off Areen and the favourite, Steady Pace. A good run by Areen as he had to overcome the usual Spencer 'effort' from the gate.

Beverley 6.15

A 1-2 for the Mark Johnston yard with the 'wrong one' winning, Champagne City running on too strongly for the favourite Tawakkol. Rioca, trained by Sir Mark, was very green but ran on well to finish third.

Brighton 6.30

Another of those Brighton races where the leaders go off too fast and fall apart on the riring ground at the finish. This time Raj To Riches and Whitman, first and second favourites, set the race up for the closers Show Stealer and Auxiliary. A nice debut win for the filly but not form to rely on.

Today

Hamilton 2.20

Two FSS with runners, Dream Ahead (Candelisa - who ran a reasonable race at Haydock on debut where she swerved right at the start) and Zoffany (Bint Aldar - a running-on fifth on his debut at Pontefract.

Ascot 3.05

Two FSS represented, Lilbourne Lad (Abberley Dancer - who appears to be a 'social runner') and Zoffany (Secret Tale - a winner at Lingfield last time but doesn't look good enough here). Kassia, a narrow winner at Sandown on her last run, is a half-sister to Ruffed, second in the MillReef as a 2-y-o. Rah Rah unbeaten and now with Godolphin is a half-sister to Decathlete, second in a French Group 3 as a 2-y-o. Ring Of Truth, a narrow odds-on winner at Haydock last time is a full-sister to Musical Comedy the winner of a Listed race at Newbury last season. My main interest is in Besharah an unbeaten daughter of Kodiac who has been an impressive winner of both her races.

Ripon 7.10

Whispering Soul who finished in midfield on her Redcar debut is a half-sister to several useful handicappers.

Chelmsford 7.20

FSS Poet's Voice is represented by Divasesque who has run poorly in both her outings. Dhahmaan, a son of Kodiac, won nicely on debut at Nottingham.

Chelmsford 9.20

Sense Of Fun is a full sister to Aesop's Fables a winner of a Group 1 in France, she hasn't been at the races in her two runs and could well be a handicap project in progress and it wouldn't be a surprise if she ran into a place here. Alinstante, an Archipenko filly trained by Sir Mark, is one to look out for.
 
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Thanks Colin. Had a good look at the Hamilton 2.20. Can't really separate the two you mention, have you any thoughts? Slightly nervous about Galesburg given how well Johnston's two year olds seem to be running. Might be a race to just watch unless you can provide a steer? I am looking at the price of Mr Stravinsky though for Ann Dffield who can be shrewd. Out of Zebedee, beaten quite far on debut but was a shortish price so must have been fancied. Booked into a couple of class 2's later in the summer... think it might be worth leaving the shorter prices and having a speculative each way punt on Mr Stravinsky.
 
Yesterday Bint Aldar gave Zoffany win number 8 for the season and RaceBets reacted as usual.

Unfortunately, the Bint Aldar win is registered ok under the Zoffany progeny record, the overall table is still on 7 wins though and thus the overall table and the number of runs is not up-to-date yet.

I'll post the latest RaceBets odds nevertheless and put in the number of runs per the current table. Should it get updated later in the day I will edit this post to show the correct number of runs.

Zoffany 1/2 (from 8/11) - 8 wins, 36 runs
Canford Cliffs 13/8 - 4 wins, 32 runs
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 - 4 wins, 45 runs
Roderic O'Connor 10/1 - 2 wins, 16 runs
Dream Ahead 12/1 (from 10/1) - 2 win, 15 runs
Frozen Power 12/1 (from 11/1) - 2 wins, 24 runs
Poet's Voice 16/1 (from 12/1) - 2 wins, 21 runs
Pour Moi 33/1 (from 22/1) - no win, 2 runs
Dick Turpin 100/1 - no win, 11 runs

Looking at the forthcoming races and the current standing I think it's about time to consider the 1/2 for Zoffany. Compared to most other stallions his progeny is well represented in current 2-y-o races, he's got a slight advantage over the most dangerous contenders and from today's figure I'd expect the overall figure for the champion FSS to be somewhere near 25 wins for the season. So Zoffany has gone a third of the way needed. I'm not sure what would happen if 2 stallions are level end of the season. Should it go down to the better number of places for second - and so on - Zoffany with 8 seconds holds a big advantage compared to Canford Cliffs with 1 second and has only a small deficit compared to Lilbourne Lad with 10 seconds.

There is quite a number of 2-y-o races to come today and over the next few days, so may be it's best to see what happens there - may be Zoffany could hold another winner with Illuminate tomorrow at Ascot , Roderic O'Connor or Canford Cliffs could well have another win tonight at Leopardstown. Should Zoffany get to 10 wins and the gap is at least the same as now I'll put some more on Zoffany and would recommend to do so too for the ones interested in this market.
 
Yesterday

Ascot 3.05

Acapulco, looking like a 3-y-o colt racing gainst 2-y-o fillies, won in good style. In the circumstances the runner-up, Easton Angel, comes out of the race with a lot of credit.

Chelmsford 9.20

Alinstante, despite running green, became Sir M. Prescott's first 2-y-o winner of the season.

Today

Ripon 2.10

Fishergate, a half-brother to Charlie Em (a winner of a Grade 3 in the US) has been the runner-up in both his races. Invincible Bond is a half-brother to March, third in a Group 3 over 6f. at York, but was well beaten on debut at Catterick. Rose Eclair, half-sister to smart sprinter Mattmu, has run OK in her two races.

Ascot 2,30

First season sire Zoffany is represented by Waterloo Bridge who narrowly won a moderate maiden at Tipperary on his fourth attempt. The race looks to be between the Hannon pair, Log Out Island, very strongly fancied by our time expert EC1, and who has been mighty impressive to date especially the last time at Sandown where he beat the winner of Tuesday's Coventry, Buratino, by five lengths.

Lingfield 5.40

FSS Roderic O'Connor is represented by Cross Examine who has shown very little in his two runs but is a half-brother to Vale Of York, third in the Royal lodge and winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 2009. Criminalistic is having his second run for Charlie Appleby he was beaten four lengths into third on debut but is a half-brother to Wordcraft unbeaten in two races for this yard. The two Showcasing runners Cappy Brown and Trikingdom are worth having a look at, the former is a half-brother to Nevisian Lad (winner of the July Stakes as a 2-y-o) and Woodnook (close second in a Listed event at Lingfield). Trikingdomis a half-brother to a useful 6-7f. handicapper.

Leopardstown 5.50

Runners for FSS Roderic O'Connor (Mint Chai, who has developed the worrying habit of finishing second, is a half-brother to useful handicapper Clare Island Boy) and Canford Cliffs (Painted Cliffs - well behind stablemate Air Force Blue on debut at the Curragh). Dashing Chief, making his debut, is of some interest being a half-brother to useful 7f. handicapper Monakova.

Chelmsford 5.55

FSS Lilbourne Lad has two runners, City Of Stars (becoming exposed and a touch disappointing) and Cat Royale (promising second on debut at Newmarket but not following up on a return visit two weeks later). Another FSS Frozen Power has a debutant Silhouette running for him. Palpitation has shown little in his two runs but is a half-brother to Systematic ( runner-up in the 12f. Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes of 2004. Boycie, third of four in a moderate Brighton maiden is a half-brother to five winners including smart handicapper Charm School.

Leicester 6.30

Two FSS with runners; Poet's Voice has Nietzsche (green on debut but managing fourth behind Aleko at Haydock is a half-brother to a useful French filly) and Zoffany has Spongy (who has two respectable runs to his name and is a half-brother to two fair performers). Bochart who finished 7th of 8 after racing prominently to two out is having his second run for Charlie Appleby, he is a half-brother to Cheviot, winner of a Class 2 nursery at haydock. I must give a mention to Bluebeard who was an early 2-y-o runner for Gosden and raced prominently before finishing sixth at Newbury on debut, he is out of the prolific and successful mare Arabesque, producer of Showcasing, Camacho, Tendu and Bouvardia.
 
Danoli said:
Looking at the forthcoming races and the current standing I think it's about time to consider the 1/2 for Zoffany.
Click to expand...

Market just taken off again whilst odds were unchanged to the above post! I hope it's because some out there followed my advise.

May be though the RaceBetties are reading in here - well, if so, are you man or mouse :D
 
Congrats to you, good odds! I played it a bit too safe I guess - went on too early in the season and spread on the top3 in the market for an even profit even though I always thought Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad would be the ones. Means I can see out the remainder of the season comfortably whilst your bet had more guts - well done, even though it's not 100% home and dry yet!
 
BennyB said:
Pleased I took the 7/4 Zoffany, displeased I didn't have more on.
Click to expand...
Just checked my bets - couldn't remember each one once they go to bed during the season.

I've got Zoffany for 10/3 with 300 and 3/1 with 875 - so I can't really complain.

But obviously these nice odds level out considering the offsetting bets on Lilbourne Lad (bets at 7/1, 11/2, 3/1 and 11/4) and Canford Cliffs (bets at 9/4 and 7/4).

What these odds seem to show is, it's 2 ways and each seems to work out - go on early for nicer odds with less indication for the season and spread out. Or wait to get at least some kind of idea and focus onto 1 or 2 the very most. Last season I did it differently and waited till mid season to go on Zebedee alone, only covered myself towards the end with Showcasing closing in.
 
Some few days for Zoffany - 2 winners yesterday brought his tally to 4 in the last 3 days. Only other recent FSS winners were one by Canford Cliffs yesterday and one by Dream Ahead a few days ago. Overall standing is now correctly updated with wins and runs whilst RaceBets have not re-openet the market yet (the odds shown here are the latest ones before closing the market):

Zoffany 1/2 (from 8/11) - 10 wins, 40 runs
Canford Cliffs 13/8 - 5 wins, 33 runs
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 - 4 wins, 48 runs
Roderic O'Connor 10/1 - 2 wins, 18 runs
Dream Ahead 12/1 (from 10/1) - 2 win, 16 runs
Frozen Power 12/1 (from 11/1) - 2 wins, 25 runs
Poet's Voice 16/1 (from 12/1) - 2 wins, 23 runs
Pour Moi 33/1 (from 22/1) - no win, 2 runs
Dick Turpin 100/1 - no win, 11 runs
 
Yesterday

Ripon 2.10 Fishergate came good on his third attempt, a furlong out I thought Rose Eclair might win but could hold off the two challengers and had to settle for third.

Ascot 2.30

I don't want to belittle the effort of the winner Waterloo Bridge (a son of first season sire Zoffany) but it is difficult to accept that he was the best horse in the race, the jocks on the Hannon horses Buick and Dettoridecided to take each other on from an early stage (idiots!!!) and set up the race for Ryan Moore who didn't ignore the opportunity.

Leopardstown 5.50

A winner for FSS Canford Cliffs as Painted Cliffs improved a great deal for his debut run, he looked quite useful but I'm not sure what he beat.

Leicester 6.30

Another winner for FSS Zoffany as Spongy came with a late run to get up near the finish.

Today

Ascot 2.30

The red hot (at the moment) FSS Zoffany has Illuminate running, he won well on debut at Salisbury where he put his stablemate (the 1/3 shot) Great Page well in his place. Ashadihan, related to a couple of useful handicappers, created an excellent impression when winning on debut at Haydock but I'm not sure of the strength of the form, second and fourth both beaten since. First Party who made a winning debut at Nottingham is a half-brother to Party Boss and a couple of other decent animals. Our Joy, narrowly beaten into second by Kassia on debut at Sandown is a half-sister to Xtension who, after running fourth to Makfi in the 2,000 Guineas, went on to have a successful career in Hong Kong. Spanish Romance unbeaten in two races in France is a half-sister to Bonnard who had a decent record in Group company.

Limerick 6.10

Spinamiss is a runner for FSS Lilbourne Lad, she ran well on debut to finish second to Miss Katie Mae. Orangey Red is out of a dam who is yet to produce a non-winner, the best of her offspring being Go For Goal, winner of a Listed event at Leopardstown.

Newmarket 7.05

Two FSS with runners: Dream Ahead (Edification - promising fourth on Goodwood debut) and Zoffany (Zauffaly, making his debut). Others of interest: Bigmouth Strikes (I wonder if Chappers will be on this) is a half-brother to Mixed Intention, second in a Group 2 at Chantilly. Hope Cove, half-brother to Lamar runner-up in a Listed race on Lingfield's Polytrack in February. Melabi, half-brother to Point North, the winner of six handicaps. Lastly, Rebel Raiser, half-brother to Thunder Strike who was third in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood in 2013.
 
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