The 2015 2-y-o thread.

In the first of the 2-y-o races at Haydock yesterday Asmadihan, on debut, overcame a typical Spencer start win convincingly. The two Hannon hot-pots, Ring of Truth and Eltezam, both won their races but not in a fashion their prices suggested they should. The former was given a fright by Futoon, this newcomer had some size and scope and looks to have a future, Basma back in fifth was given a nice "educational introduction" as they say! Eltezam wasn't as hard pressed to win but the second, Elronaq, hit the front over a furlong out and the favourite had to be ridden out to make sure of the win. The lack of support for Hannon's Poldark at Lingfield suggested the stable had doubts, perhaps he didn't handle the Polytrack? At Fairyhouse, Mint Chai again finished second (giving him the rather ominous form figures of 222!) but this time the name of the winner, Miss Elizabeth, is easily pronounced! The National Stakes at Sandown turned into a rather unsatisfactory affair, King Of Rooks won with some ease but with horse swerving at the start and others having trouble in running I was left feeling a little cheated out of the tight affair that I expected. I have to say that given the ride that Areen received he did well to finish as close as he did, four lengths behind the horse in second place.

Today

Newmarket 2.00

Blossomtime is a runner to test the system of backing blindly all of Charlie Appleby's runners on their second run. He's favourite at 10/11. Betsy Coed is of interest amongst the newcomers.

Newcastle 2.10

Bathos, who has shown promise in both his races, represents, first season sire Poet's Voice. Blue Humor made a satisfactory start to his career when sixth in a good maiden at York. Heading the market is Haughmond who ran third on debut at Newmarket last month. Mr. Globetrotter is one to look out for, his trainer Michael Dods doing well with his youngsters this season with three wins from eight runs.

Brighton 2.20

Three of the seven runners disputing favouritism. Art Collection is a son of FSS Shakespearean and was making his debut when finishing second in a moderate event at Bath. Much the same can be said about Field Of Vision's on his second at Chepstow. Ahdaf is the one I'm going with, he is a half-brother to New Providence who won a Group 3 as a 2-y-o last year and has run second in two Group 2 races this year. Only fourth on debut at Hamilton but showed plenty of speed and should enjoy today's sharp five.

Haydock 6.45

Memyselfie is well bred but has shown nothing in two races. If J.Spencer can get his arse in gear Top Of The Bank has every chance. Not sure why Paddy Power (the equine one) is so short here, he disappointed when well backed at Ascot on debut, with that experience and probably an easier task here O.K but I'm not interested at 13/8. Miniaturist, second to Case Key (disappointing at Sundown last night) at Leicester could well improve on that debut here.

Catterick 7.05

Lil's Joy, a daughter of FSS Lilbourne Lad, is top of the form and time ratings for this and has an obvious chance. Socialite's Red was well beaten by Easton Angel at Beverley but that filly is smart. It's difficult to see Mark Johnston's Fireglow being suited to this sharp 5f. being a half-sister to Moon Trip a winner over 2m. at Beverley (twice) and of a handicap hurdle at Plumpton. Another half-brother was a winner over 7-10f. in the sands of Abu Dhabi and Meydan.
 
Can anyone 'read' Mark Johnston's runners? His horses made my thoughts look foolish yesterday. Fire glow o stoutly bred to possibly have the speed to win over the sharp Catterick 5f. course, she proceeds to make all and if anything she was weakening close home? Ahdaf, I thought, would be ideally suited to the Brighton five furlongs, probably went too quick but appeared to not get the trip? In this Brighton race Art Collection provided first season sire Shakespearean with his first winner.At least the Charlie Appleby "system" didn't let me down Blossomtime just landing the odds in Newmarket's first. Perhaps the most impressive 2-y-o performance yesterday was Jazz Legend's debut win at Haydock. Recovering from a slovenly start to join the leaders and looking the winner from some way out. Interesting to see if the time gurus are taken with the performance.

Today

Chester 1.50

Here wo go again! Beaverbrook (trained by guess who?) is clear in the market, clear with Topspeed, clear on RPR and drawn well, can't lose surely????? The un-raced Flanders Flame from Richard Fahey's yard is sure to be supported.

Newmarket 2.10

Two first season sires represented in this. Lilbourne lad has Cat Royale who ran a valiant race first time out, despite being keen early he just lost out in a three-horse battle, going down by just a short-head to Vallance Road. Dream Ahead's runner Nisser for the Hannon/Hughes team is making his debut but heads the early, open market. Others worth a mention are Jimenez, a full-brother to Sparkling Power who was good enough to win a valuable (aren't they all) handicap in Hong Kong over 7f., and Shalaa who was given a tough start to his career being thrown in the deep-end in the race that Birchwood won at Newbury. He was 7/2 that day and more expected obviously.

York 4.05

As in the race at Chester a Mark Johnston runner ( I was tempted to write ticks a........ but I've resisted), Tawakkol heads everything and has every chance and the price at 9/4 isn't that prohibitive (that's stopped that one) but the man has another runner in the race, Champagne City who is a half-brother to I'm So Lucky, winner of the Listed WolfertonHandicap at Ascot in 2006 before having a successful jumping career including a win in a Grade 2 chase over 2 miles at Sandown. Your guess is bound to be better than mine!

Chepstow 5.45

Good!! No Mark Johnston runner. Appears to be a race between the two with placed form, Sahreej (4/5) and Unilit (9/2) but I'm going with a small each-way interest with Go Marnie. Her half-brother Ivors Rebel is a decent winning sprint on Polytrack but did win on her second appearance as a 2-y-o over the five furlongs at Bath. Go Marnie, herself, had a bad first day at school, missing the break and finishing almost 60 lengths behind the winner at Southwell. Appeared to improve immensely on her second outing at Newbury earlier this month, finishing just nine lengths behind the winner Qeyaadah in what, at the time, was thought to be a decent maiden.
 
Missed a race earlier.

Navan 1.55

Four first season sires with runners. Lilbourne Lad (Clon Rocket), Roderic O'Connor (Dodgybingo), Zoffany (Waterloo Bridge) and Canford Cliffs (Most Beautiful). The last two head the market. Most Beautiful (11/8) was made favourite for her debut at Naasbut she could only manage fourth place, four lengths behind the winner. Will probably improve for the run. Waterloo Bridge has made two visits to a racecourse, he disappointed on debut at the Curragh but seemed to step up on that effort when third behind the very useful Round Two at Naas earlier this month. Fair Game, a 50/1 shot, is a half-sister to a number of useful winners and could be worth keeping an eye on.
 
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Most beautiful was a winner for first season sire Canford Cliffs yesterday and was one of three winning favourites in the 2-y-o races and the other two went to well-supported runners suggesting that winners were easy to find, hmmm! Age Of Empire's win at York was probably the most pleasing on the eye and Beaverbrook's all the way win at Chester was satisfying for form students but the odds of 1/2 were a touch off-putting.

To digress rather, I thought that in that Navan race, the outsider that I mentioned above, Fair Game would have finished somewhat closer if he hadn't been stopped in his run with about a furlong to run. Grrrr!!!

Today

Nottingham 2.15 The un-raced Haggas colt Ajaya is 6/5 for this. The 'form horse' Kyllukey was beaten at 4/6 at Salisbury last week. There are two FSS with runners Dream Ahead (Adham) and Lilbourne Lad (Wilson's Ruby). I refuse to mention the well bred Memyselfie again in the absence of anything else of interest I'm going to sit back and watch.

Listowel 2.40

First season sire Frozen Power is represented by The Frozen Well who showed little at Cork on debut. The 2/1 favourite, the O'Brien-trained, Deauville is a full-brother to, The Corsican, the winner of a Listed race at Goodwood eight days ago. Reinas Queen, one of the outsiders here (50/1), is a full-sister to an animal with a RPR of 95 and half-sister to one with a RPR of 92, just saying!
 
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One I will be looking out for next time is Nisser who ran a nice race yesterday at Newmarket. Bumped in to a couple of useful sorts who had already had a run.
 
Latest RaceBets odds for Champion FSS by number of wins (comparison in brackets are the odds I posted here a week ago, there were some minor changes afterwards that I elected not to post here):

Zoffany 4/5 (from 8/11)
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (from 3/1)
Lilbourne Lad 10/3 (from 3/1)
Dream Ahead 6/1
Roderic O'Connor 8/1 (from 7/1)
Frozen Power 10/1 (from 14/1)
Poet's Voice 11/1 (from 10/1)
Pour Moi 25/1
Dick Turpin 100/1
 
Two nice debuts yesterday. At Nottingham, Dhahmaan was well supported in the market and justified that support by beating, what might be, a decent field with a nice turn of foot inside the final furlong. The AP O'Brien-trained Deauville showed no shortage of stamina at the end of seven furlongs on heavy ground at Listowel, not sure about the strength of the opposition.

Today

Leicester 2.15

First season sire Frozen Power has Red Hot Chilly running in this. With very little form to go on the winner is likely to be a newcomer. No strong feelings on any of them really, just to say that Illegally Blonde is a half-sister to three decent animals.

Naas 3.40

This is an interesting Listed event with a 'British' runner, Birchwood travelling over. He is unbeaten in two races, purchased by Godolphin after his second win. That Newbury form looks strong and he heads the market at 6/4. There is plenty of strength in the home team, lead by Argentero, a son of first season sire Zoffany, second to the good colt Round Two at this course last month. There is only one newcomer and that is the AP O'Brien-trained Air Vice Marshal who is by Galileo and is a half-brother to Contested, a Grade 1 winner in the US and full-brother to Mosler, good enough to run in a Grade 1 again in the States and finishing a close-up sixth.

Naas 4.15

This is a Listed race confined to fillies and again we have an invader, Richard Hannon sends Great Page (a daughter of FSS Roderic O'Connor) to take part. Again the British horse heads the market and again there is strength in the home side. It is difficult to work out the pecking order of the Irish fillies. A race to learn from methinks.

Windsor 5.55

Rather more ordinary fare with this Novices race but Besharah made an excellent impression when winning at Ascot. Favourite backers will be extremely disappointed if she doesn't land the odds (8/11).

Carlisle 6.40

Chicago School (Mark Johnston) and Fishergate (Richard Fahey) dispute favouritism here both finishing second on their debuts. Fisher gate's defeat by Easton Angel reads the better to me........but I'm probably wrong, again! King Robert, who is making his debut, is a half-brother to Son Of Africa winner of a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year could be worth looking out for.
 
At Naas yesterday both Listed events went to the offspring of first season sires. The boys' race went to a son of Zoffany (Argentero) and the girls' to a daughter of Roderic O'Connor (Great Page). Both were comfortable winners. In the first at Leicester Blacklister should have won but he seemed to lose concentration in the shadow of the post and lost out to Legally Blonde. Besharah easily landed the odds at Windsor and at Carlisle the un-raced King Robert came with a sniping late run to collar Fishergate 50 metres from the line.

Today

Brighton 2.10

Two first season sires with runners; Roderic O'Connor (Cross Examine) and Canford Cliffs (Cuppatea). The latter showed a little promise on her Windsor Debut and Cross Examine, making his debut, is a half-brother to the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Vale Of York. Auxiliary who was fourth on debut at Leicester and is from the in-form Haggas yard is the early favourite.

Ripon 2.25

Favourable Spirit, RPR and Topspeed top-rated, is favourite at 11/4. Of those that haven't had a run Palpitation is of most interest, he is a half-brother to Systematic who was a winner of two Group 3 events one over 12f. and one over 13.5f.

Wolverhampton 6.50

Just the three for this novice event and not much of a race. Mustn't Grumble looks to have the best chance but the win he has to his name came in a Ripon seller.
 
Well backed too Jarv.

Col, I notice you gave a positive mention to Illegally blonde yesterday, winner at a big price. Nice work.
 
good call Col


not really looked yet but the Johnston one in the 2.10..welford...would have the best figure but looks like this is a minimum..if he is taken to the front and sets a good pace he could win this

ripon race probably just a groove can take it..trainer does well here with FTO and those that have run don't look much yet

a bit underwhelming today
 
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johnstons needs further,,got a good pace..the bit of the race you could see anyway..looks like a mid November day there..Osborne stable probably one of the hardest to read in racing
 
Latest RaceBets odds for Champion FSS by number of wins (comparison in brackets are the odds I posted here a week ago, there were some minor changes afterwards that I elected not to post here):

Zoffany 4/5 (from 8/11)
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (from 3/1)
Lilbourne Lad 10/3 (from 3/1)
Dream Ahead 6/1
Roderic O'Connor 8/1 (from 7/1)
Frozen Power 10/1 (from 14/1)
Poet's Voice 11/1 (from 10/1)
Pour Moi 25/1
Dick Turpin 100/1

Just realized that there was an error in this - sorry:

Meant to say: Canford Cliffs 6/4 (from 2/1)
 
Thanks, jarv, duly noted.

Mirage came out the mists to win on debut at Brighton. At Ripon Fashionable Spirit used her experience to advantage making all to justify favouritism. The debutant Repeat Offender won what was a poor event at Wolverhampton.

Today

Wolverhampton 2.00

A tight affair with three of them vying for favouritism. Godolphin's Criminalistic is one them but we all know that Charlie Appleby's charges rarely win first time up....do they?! Lock ram will surely improve for his first run where he was handicapped by his greenness when fourth at Ayr. Mia Tesoro is another who will benefit for her run when sixth at Newmarket first time. At a longer price Sign Of The Kodiac is one who must have a chance.

Nottingham 2.20

Cinders, a daughter of first season sire Lilbourne Lad, did well first time up when second at Windsor. Powerful Dream, by FSS Frozen Power, was slowly away when a distant fourth on her debut at Goodwood. Of the newcomers Love On The Rocks and Shaden make most appeal.

Ripon 6.40

FSS Poet's Voice has two running for him; Ode To Evening, fifth on his debut in a good maiden at York after fluffing the start, and Electra Voice making her debut. Heading the market is Key on Kodiac, who started favourite on his debut at Nottingham and showed plenty of promise in finishing third.

Chelmsford 7.20

Nidnod just favourite here on the strength of her second place at Windsor on her second run. In not a particularly strong event perhaps it's worth taking a chance with the debutante Jumeirah Star who is a half-sister to Speed Hawk third to Kingsgate Native in a Listed race last week.
 
Yesterday at Wolverhampton Lockram stepped up on his debut effort at Ayr to win convincingly. Shaden's win on debut at Nottingham was a pleasing effort and Love On The Rocks, also making her debut, shaped like a future winner. Ode To Evening, a son of first season sire Poet's Voice, was a nine-length winner at Ripon. Can't help feeling that the wide margin victory may be a bit misleading, we shall see. At Chelmsford Jumeirah Star's task was made a deal more difficult when Spencer J. allowed her to fall out of the stalls (I seem to remember him doing this once or twice before!!!) and lose several lengthsThe Hannon-trained winner Wedge made just about all and ran on well.

Today

Hamilton 2.00

Two serial losers, First Bombardment & Risk Adjusted head the market, could be a case of ....after you m'boy- no after you sir. Cotton Camera, a daughter of FSS Lilbourne Lad, has less convictions to her name, a decent third after a slow start at Doncaster puts her in with a chance.

Lingfield 4.10

The un-raced Aguerooo (Hannon/Hughes) heads the market at 13/8. Of those with form Sixties Sue's third to two Hannon horses Illuminate & Great Page (winner of a Listed race in Ireland earlier this week) at Salisbury looks the best on offer.

Tipperary 5.30

FSS Zoffany's Waterloo Bridge runs and is 10/11 at the moment. He could be described as being disappointing as he has been beaten three times but he has been beaten by some smart animals. Gift Wrap (4/1) and China Eyes (11/2) are obvious alternatives.

Kempton 6.45

Two FSS with runners Dream Ahead (Cosmopolitan Girl, making her debut) and Zoffany (Cara's Muse, who showed little at Nottingham on debut). Sense Of Fun qualifies for the Charlie Appleby on second run system but was last of ten at Newmarket on debut. Azhar and Gwendolyn are joint favourites at 11/4, both were beaten favourites on debut.
 
At Hamilton yesterday Risk Adjusted ceased to be a serial loser when winning convincingly on the other hand First Bombardment is guilty m'ld. Sixties Sue showed a lot of courage to hold on to winners two bigger animals bore down on her throughout the final furlong; I was quite taken with the debut of Aguerooo, he appears to have size and scope and looks capable of winning. Over at Tipperary Waterloo Bridge had to be hard ridden to hold on against Gift Wrap and had to survive a stewards' inquiry after drifting right under pressure and intimidating the filly without actually giving her a bump. In the Kempton 6.45 Azhar showed a lot of improvement for his debut, looking very professional, making all and being clear over a furlong out; the "Appleby system" horse Sense of Fun reared as the stalls opened and wasn't given a hard race!

Today

Catterick 1.40

Glenrowan Rose went off at 33/1 for a similar event here last week, she belied those odds by overcoming a slow start to finish second to Fireglow, beaten a neck. She is a lone filly taking on the colts today but she heads the RPR, Topped and the market at 15/8. Can't see anything of great interest amongst the debutants.

Leopardstown 5.25

Tonkinese, third to Air Force Blue on his debut, looks the best of those with form and trades at 15/8. Of the others I have to give a mention to Brontide, a half-brother to Pleasach winner of this year's Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Goodwood 6.40

Only three of the seven have had a run and War Whisper's close third to In Haste looks the best form. Favourite for the race at Evens is the un-raced Alkhor, trained by Hannon, ridden by Dettori. The debutante Tholen is a half-sister to Time Prisoner winner of a Group 3 in France.

Bath 6.55

First season sire Cape Blanco has a runner with Parafin Young 10th of 12 in a decent Newbury maiden on debut. Little Voice heads the market, given a Jamie on his debut at Windsor, Spencer rides again today and 11/8 is the price. Just Glamorous, third in the market, is a half-brother to Glamorous Spirit who was a good winner as a 2-y-o and went on to win a Group 3 at the Curragh.

Goodwood 7.15

Two FSS with runners Dream Ahead (Edification - making debut) and Poet's Voice (Poet's Song also making his debut). Strong Challenge who heads the market at 13/8 seems to have lots of positives; well bred, being a full-brother to Bullet Champion who was third in the Group 2 Mill Reef as a 2-y-o and a half-brother to two black-type horses, tops the form and time ratings. Of the others that have run Sharara's respectable 6th. in in a good Newbury maiden looks the best on offer.
 
Great thread, Colin - very informative.

On a side note, I see that Sir Alex Ferguson has a first time up 2yo in at Newcastle (in the Rock Of Gibraltar colours) tomorrow trained by... Simon Crisford.

Some man to hold a grudge!
 
At Catterick yesterday Glenrowan Rose just got up close home. A rather more comfortable win for Tonkineses at Leopardstown. War Whisper, well backed all day, landed the odds in the 5f. maiden at Goodwood, stablemate Alkhor, who finished second, has the scope to improve and win races. There was a comfortable win for Archimedes at Bath where Little Voice failed to live up to expectations. In the 6f. race at Goodwood Strong Challenge made all to win comfortably.

Today

Doncaster 1.55

At 5/1 the field this is obviously an open event. Plenty of runners for first season sires: Canford Cliffs has three Aneesah, Canny Style and Poplar Close, all three are making their debut; Poet's Voice is represented by Beautiful Firth, also having her first run; Dream Ahead has Hillside Dream running and this one hasn't been disgrace in two runs in Newmarket maidens. Rose Eclair a modest sixth on her first run at Redcar is a half-sister to Mattmu winner of a 2-y-o Group last year at Maisons-Lafitte and was second in a Group 2 at York last month. Of the debutants the most interesting is Alsaaden, a half-sister to Brioniya Listed placed as a 3 & 4-y-o in France.

Musselburgh 2.15

FSS Lilbourne Lad has two in this, Wilson's Ruby a distant sixth on debut at Nottingham last week and Richter Scale, who heads the market at 7/4, who showed promise on her first run and then confirmed that promise when winning a Thirsk maiden in authoritative style, making all and going clear. There are plenty of dangers;m Mark Johnston's two, Furiant and First Party, New Road Side and In Haste. I must give a mention to Cool Silk Boy, well beaten in a maiden at Nottingham on debut he has a big ask here but he is a half-brother to Tiggy Wiggy.

Epsom 2.35

Art Collection is a son of FSS Shakespearean but this is a much sterner test than the modest event he won at Brighton. Nelspruit at 7/2 heads the market, there was a lot to like about his second on debut in a good Newbury maiden but he was rather unimpressive when winning his maiden next time at Goodwood at odds of 4/11. Sorting the form out here is rather like trying to complete a jigsaw with pieces missing. I'm putting this in the 'too difficult' tray.

Lingfield 6.00

FSS with runners here, Roderic O'Connor with Becca Campbell (making her debut) and Zoffany with Secret Tale who has two nice runs to her credit and heads the market here at 6/4. Second favourite Field Of Vision has the dreaded 22 in front of his name. I can't see anything else of interest.

Newcastle 6.10

Burning Shadow is a runner for FSS Elusive Pimpernel whose runners so far have been disappointing. Baby Ballerina tops the form and speed ratings and excuses can be made for her three defeats, the last of those was in a Listed race at York where she missed the break then got hampered but managing to get to within four lengths of the winner even if she was only eighth, she is available at 10/1.
 
Good start to yesterday for Hamdan-Al-Maktoum with first and second in the first at doncaster; once again Spencer contrived to miss the break and that didn't help the cause of Canny Style who was a staying on third. Richter Scale disappointed at Musselburgh just fifth to New Road Side, Cool Silk Boy again disappointing. What to say about Buratino's exciting win in the Woodcote, he showed tremendous acceleration around the two furlong marker and shot clear; if this is the same horse that King Of Rooks beat five lengths at Sandown then that animal is some 2-y-o. At Lingfield Secret Tale made all to win comfortably and land the odds. Baby Ballerina didn't run too badly at Newcastle but could only manage third behind Simon Crisford's promising debutant Red Artist and Mark Johnston's Dawaa.

Today - just the one race.

Curragh 2.05

Three first season sires with runners; Roderic O'Connor (My Brother - making his debut), Pour Moi ( the 2011 Derby winner's first runner Only Mine - a half-sister to three winner including Miner's Lamp, a classy handicapper for Charlie Appleby) and Zoffany (Stamp Hill - fourth in a dec ent maiden at Leopardstown). The betting suggests a two-horse race; just shading it at the moment at 13/8 is Rockaway Valley, second to Air Force Blue on debut, at 7/4 is Air Vice Marshall, making his debut he is a half-brother to Contested winner of a Grade 1 race for fillies at Saratoga.
 
Latest table First Season Sires by number of wins:

STALLIONWINNERS–RUNNERSWINSRUNS2ND3RD4THWIN PRIZETOTAL PRIZE
Zoffany5–1338%625723£65,706£87,189
Canford Cliffs4–1724%427153£20,737£27,048
Lilbourne Lad3–1916%341935£10,674£31,347
Roderic O'Connor1–617%210401£35,663£44,213
Frozen Power2–1020%214012£6,914£7,828
Poet's Voice2–1217%218005£7,116£9,106
Shakespearean1–1100%13100£2,911£3,616
Soul City1–1100%13001£2,264£3,021
Dream Ahead1–813%113024£3,235£5,591
Twirling Candy0–101000£0£0
Wootton Bassett0–102000£0£0
Atlantic Sport0–203020£0£1,005
Cape Blanco0–204010£0£673
Elusive Pimpernel0–307001£0£481
Dick Turpin0–8010111£0£1,517

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