The 2015 2-y-o thread.

A look at the top of the table for wins by first season sires, there are only five in double figures:

CANFORD CLIFFS - WINS 21 RUNS 109 A/E* 1.11 P/L* -4.72

ZOFFANY - 19 - 102 - 1.50 - +14.48

DREAM AHEAD - 12 - 51 - 0.86 -7.74

POET'S VOICE - 11 - 75 - 1.04 - -26.91

LILBOURNE LAD - 10 - 112 - -27.24

* I'm afraid the Actual/Expected and Profit/Loss figures do not include Irish races
 
Nice battle going on right now. CC putting on the pressure to build a slight advantage and Zoffany responding when it's needed. I'd still say I see CC ahead at the end but as discussed before the autumn races could change the picture a bit with longer distances and more demanding ground.

No sense in posting a recent update - just add 1 to Col's table above for Zoffany's winner Well Caught yesterday who had no chance :D

Colin Phillips said:
Today

Dundalk 2.10

FSS Zoffany has the newcomer Well Caught in this, But according to Slim Chance she has no chance!:)
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More frustrating is that RaceBets are sh...ing themselves with the FSS market.

It happend twice in the last couple of days that CC took a 3 wins lead only for Zoffany to counter every single time and reduce it to 1 win. Makes no sense in overreacting every time in closing their book. In case they feel themselves as 'book' makers, normal behaviour would be to adjust the odds in case they think it's appropriate - and this would mean writing horse's odds down and just as well others up.

Not just down because somebody keeps himself more uptodate with daily results, puts on a little wager and turns RaceBets into rabbits in front of a snake.

My gut feeling is CC will do it, but neither a 1 win nor a 3 win lead is decisive with more than 80 days of flat racing to come in UK and Ireland up to November, 7th.

They've closed their book when CC (was 4/6) went 3 wins clear of Zoffany (11/8) - instead of keeping their book open with adusted odds and continue generating turnover they now jump back up to 8/11 CC and 11/10 Zoffany - or somewhere near these odds - in case they have enough courage at all. My feeling is that their oddsmakers know fcuk all of bloddstock related aspects of racing.

Which is good for next season though ;)
 
Yesterday

Dundalk 2.10

Yeah, it seems that Well Caught did have a chance and plenty on here profited from that knowledge - a winner for FSS Zoffany.

Dundalk 3.40

Very visually impressive debut by the Godolphin newcomer French Blue, hitting the front entering the final furlong and going well clear.

Today

Thirsk 2.10

Two FSS with runners; Dream ahead (Alpine Dream - making her debut) and Canford Cliffs (Lady Canford - didn't show a lot on her debut in a decent maiden at York).

Thirsk 2.40

Sanford Cliffs represented by Canny Style, she has shown a decent level of form in her four runs, drops back a furlong in trip today.

Kempton 3.25

Joules, who made an OK debut at Windsor, is a full-brother of Power - winner of the Coventry and National Stakes in his first season before winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas the following year. Shaded is an interesting newcomer being a full-brother to Zantenda - the winner of a 2-y-o Group 3 at Longchamp.

Kempton 3.55

A Class 6 nursery with three FSS runners; Poet's Voice (Queensbury Odyssey), Elusive Pimpernel (Premier Currency) and Lilbourne Lad (Jewellery Quarter).

Roscommon 5.15

Two FSS represented; Zoffany (Remarkable Lady - debut) and Pour Moi (Retinal - finishing midfield after an "educational" run on debut at Naas).

Windsor 5.35

FSS Frozen Power has the newcomer Sheila's treat in this. Another newcomer, Smiley Bagel, is of interest being a half-brother to very smart stayer Simenon.

Chelmsford 5.55

FSS Zoffany has Pinky Promise here, she ran a decent third to Projection on her second outing, a Windsor maiden earlier this month.
 
Early night for you tomorrow, Col.

Ten 2-y-o races tomorrow and they made the last one a 2 horse match race in the 9.20 at Chelmsford. What do they expect of how many people will stay for this 'interestng' race.

So the one but last is the 6.50 - at Chelmsford too. I'd say spare yourself the bother, Col - enjoy yourself with a nice pint and look up the result the following morning. It won't change the run of the world anyway.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Today

Thirsk 2.10

Two FSS with runners; Dream ahead (Alpine Dream - making her debut) and Canford Cliffs (Lady Canford - didn't show a lot on her debut in a decent maiden at York).
Click to expand...

Seems to be a bit of money on Lady Canford for the 2.10 at Thirsk despite her debut form - in to 10/3 (from 6) according to RP
 
I'm on Lady Canford - expecting big improvement. I also like Balding/Probert combo in the first at Windsor - small price but will go for the double.
 
Even more money for Lady Canford up to the off - went off 2/1f coming in from 6's in the morning.

Just missed out though going down by half a length to Alpine Dream (a Dream Ahead). Judging todays support for LC and the narrow defeat LC may be one to watch out for in her next race.
 
Yesterday

Thirsk 2.10

A winning debut for Alpine Dream, a daughter of FSS Dream Ahead.

Kempton 3.25

A good run by Joules but he was unable to hold off the srtong challenge of fellow joint-favourite Valko. Many Dreams (20/1) made a nice debut by running on late for third.

Kempton 3.55

A winner for FSS Elusive Pimpernel with Premier Currency justifying favouritism.

Today

Ripon 2.30

Lady Wootton is a runner for FSS Wootton Bassett, she was third to Crombay in a Thirsk maiden last time.

Kempton 3.15

FSS Poet's Voice represented by Express Metro who was beaten almost 50 lengths when last of 13 behind Ray's The Bar in a 7f. Ascot maiden. Gameplay, who hasn't shown a lot of ability in two runs, going off at SPs of 33/1 and 20/1, is a half-brother to Dastarhon, second to Style Vendome in the 2013 French 2,000 Guineas.

Ripon 3.30

Two FSS with runners; Poet's Voice (Colour Me Happy second to Foundation, beaten 3.5 lengths, on debut at haydock) and Paddy O'Prado (Sporty Yankee - green on debut but showed some ability by making late progress to finish 5th. of 13 in a low grade Newcastle maiden).

Kempton 3.45

FSS Cape Blanco represented by Indrapura - the winner of a 7f. Brighton maiden last time, has been given a handicap mark of 80.

Sligo 4.55

Two runners for FSS Lilbourne Lad; Clon Rocket who showed little when last of 13 on debut at Navan and Clear Spirit who is making her debut.

Leicester 6.40

Two FSS with runners; Frozen Power (Hide Your Fires- unable to get a run when finishing fifth on her debut at Wolverhampton) and Atlantic Sport (Shine Likeadiamond who on her latest run finished 4th of 5 in a small Lingfield maiden).

Chelmsford 6.50

Three FSS represented; Roderic O'Connor (Bazzat, who has finished last in both his runs, is a half-brother to Beyond Desire - the winner of a Group 3 over 5f. at Longchamp), Canford Cliffs (Taroneesh - last in both his starts) and Dream Ahead (Madhatten - finished well when third to Curtain Call in a Nottingham maiden last time).
 
Yesterday

Kempton 3.15

Impressive win by Godolphin's Pure Diamond, quite keen and always near the lead he drew clear from 2 out. Said Bin Suroor's record for 2-y-os at Kempton is 46/128 or 35.9%.

Kempton 3.45

Another very good winner for Godolphin, this time with Charlie Appleby's Hawkbill - made all and ridden out to win by just over three lengths. Appleby's record with 2-y-os at Kempton is 26/99 - 26.3%.

Sligo 4.55

Clon Rocket a 25/1 winner for FSS Lilbourne Lad. Didn't see that one coming!! Ah! I see he's been gelded since his debut at Navan.

Chelmsford 6.50

The 1/2 favourite Field Of Vision came right away in the straight to win by six lengths.

Today

Carlisle 2.20

Two FSS with runners; Wootton Bassett (Bassett Bleu - has shown little in two runs) and Frozen Power (Strummer - beaten five lengths when second to Farkle Minkus at Ayr on his second run).

York 2.30

Group 3 Acomb Stakes and FSS Dream Ahead is represented by Dream Mover, he was keeping on well when winning last time over 6f. on good/soft, trip and ground should suit today but it looks a tough race.

Ffos Las 2.45

A Class 6 nursery and FSS Frozen Power has Efron running, fifth off a mark of 51 over 7f. at Kempton when leading until a furlong from home, he's off the same mark today but drops back a furlong, yet to run on soft turf.

York 4.55

A very competitive Class 2 nursery, they bet 13/2 the field at the moment. There are three FSS with runners; Poet's Voice (Whitman - has taken a 12lbs. rise for his last win, that was in a Class 5 Nottingham nursery0, Dick Turpin (Receding Waves - finished midfield in a big field sales race, making some late headway, he looks to have a tough task off a mark of 91) and Lilbourne Lad (Quick N Quirky - a winner on debut at Thirsk and a decent second in a Novice event at Newcastle last time, has a mark of 82. The ground is an unknown and that applies to quite a few of these).

Kempton 6.40

Sterling Lines, who didn't show a great deal in a good Goodwood maiden, is a half-brother to several useful performers including Ratio -RPR 114- who ran third in a French Group 3, on very soft ground.
 
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Yesterday

Ffos Las 2.10

Ugly racing on almost un-raceable ground, I don't think many of these fillies will have stoked up much entusiasm for racing after this.

Carlisle 2.20

First To Post, off the course since May, proved much too good for these.

York 2.30

Recorder confirmed the promise shown in his first two efforts, being by Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare he could well improve again on this.

Ffos Las 2.40

Hell of a long way for Ann Duffield to bring a 2-y-o, we should have taken the tip as Letbygonesbeicons made the trip worthwhile.

York 4.55

A highly competitive nursery, allegedly, but Mayfair Lady made all the hard work done by the handicapper look like time wasted; she made all, went clear and never looked like being challenged - back to the drawing-board Mr. Tester!

Kempton 6.40

Won by the favourite Miss Blondell but it was a strange run, entering the final couple of furlongs she look destined to finish in the ruck but, from somewhere, she found a short burst of speed that seemed to take her and her rider (Miss Turner) by surprise. Shunt on to win convincingly but it will be interesting to see if that injection of pace was a one-off, or not.

Today

York 1.55

The DBS Yearlings Stakes worth almost 150,000 pounds to the winner. The two top FSS have a runner; Zoffany (Mickey - made a decent enough debut when a close-up fourth at Pontefract, prominent until running out of steam inside the final furlong) and Canford Cliffs (Rockley Point - a song-finishing second in a Kempton nursery off 76).

Chepstow 2.10

Surprised to see that the reported going is good, we had a soaking here yesterday. FSS Lilbourne Lad has the newcomer Donttouchthechips running for him.

York 2.30

Group 2 Loather and FSS Canford Cliffs is represented by Lady Clair - winner of a Thirsk nursery last time off a mark of 78. That doesn't look good enough to trouble next year's 1,000 Guineas favourite Lumiere, a very impressive winner of a Newmarket maiden on debut, let's hope we don't here the sound of another bubble bursting.

Lingfield 5.00

FSS Dream Ahead has Dream Dreamer in this, she is rather exposed after six runs, the last of which was a third in a Chelmsford nursery off 82.

Hamilton 5.10

FSS Zoffany represented by the newcomer Al Shahaniya, a half-sister to Cliche -RPR 104.

Killarney 5.20

FSS Frozen Power represented by newcomer Orotaveo, she is a half-sister to three smart performers, the best of them being Majestic Myles the winner of a 7f. Listed event at Chester.
 
RaceBets woke up again and re-opened the FSS market yesterday (comparison of odds against market before been taken down):

Canford Cliffs 4/6 (unchanged), 21 wins from 112 runs, strikerate 18.75 %
Zoffany 11/8 (unchanged), 20 wins from 106 runs, strikerate 18.87 %
Dream Ahead 9/2 (from 5/1), 13 wins from 54 runs, strikerate 24.07 %
Lilbourne Lad 8/1 (from 7/1), 11 wins from 116 runs, strikerate 9.48 %
Poet's Voice 33/1 (from 16/1), 11 wins from 78 runs, strikerate 14.10 %

The remaining FSS's are no longer quoted - rightly so and both Lilbourne Lad and Poet's Voice are not far off the same I'd guess!

Everything very tight between the two market leaders, I'd still go with CC though and it seems RaceBets have a similar opinion as based on the standing one may argue CC to be a bit underpriced and Zoffany a bit overpriced - nothing drastical though. Dream Ahead's stat remains remarkable (24 % strikerate far better than the 2 leaders), a pity he's not got more runners out there, else he'd be a real candidate for the title.

With the table being so tight and the odds not generous on CC and a bit more tempting for Zoffany one may think to have another go at 11/8 - I'd stay put though and would not recommend any bets unless considering the current and potentially the next day's runers as a big chance for either of the leaders. RaceBets is reacting quickly by closing the market or at least re-adjust their odds. Apparently, they don't seem to evaluate chances by looking ahead to the confirmed runners over the next day or two and check out for hotpots and good chances as well as the number of entries of the leaders. As long as the odds are fair - and I'd say they are fair to good for Zoffany and a bit on the short side for CC - you'd get a real bonus if placing the bets at fair odds ahead of 2 days of good chances.

Checking today's and tomorrow's cards it would not make me jump on either of them. I don't expect anything significant to happen.
 
With a bit of luck - the even money favorite ran rather poorly and a 5/2 non-runner - Zoffany equalized yesterday with FTO Al Shahaniya.

Don't think either of the top 2 will have a winner today - they both have an outsider entered in a York 2-y-o race with 19 runners (Zoffany the shorter of the two with Papa Luigi 20/1).

Canford Cliffs has a FTO by means of Stargazer - a 5/1 shot for the Stoute / Tabor combination at Sandown in a field of eleven. May be he'd oblige but I'll stay cautious about Stoute's FTO's.

Did not have the time to look at tomorrow's cards. As yet RaceBets have not reacted in altering their odds which I think they should have done. Even before yesterday's winner the 4/6 for CC compared to the 11/8 for Zoffany was a bit underpriced and with Zoffany having equalized the 11/8 could be tempting in case Zoffany has some decent runners with good chances over the next few days. If these forthcoming runners could underline the winner from yesterday the 11/8 is tempting. Should CC have lots of runners and potentially good chances amongst them then I'd recommend to wait further until a gap starts opening.

Overall, yesterday's winner does not alter my opinion pro CC in this narrow affair. May be the autumn races will have an impact, too. So I'd stay put unless I find at least three or even more short-priced starters for either of the two over the weekend.

Anyway, odds can have an impact too. Currently, CC should be round about 4/5 rather than 4/6 and Zoffany round about 11/10 rather than 11/8.
 
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Had a quick look through the 8 UK cards for tomorrow (Ireland has 4 races at the Curragh not finally outlined yet) - no runner for neither CC nor Zoffany within the shortest three of each race as per today's odds let alone a short-priced favorite.

So unless a few outsiders will pop up or some good chances will come up at the Curragh neither CC nor Zoffany will have lots to contribute to tomorrow's winners.
 
Yesterday

York 1.55

Tassels got favourite backers off to a good start taking the big money without too many worries.

York 2.30

!!POP!! as Besharah puts Lumiere in her place two and a quarter lengths behind the "form horse".

Hamilton 5.10

Al Shahaniya a winner for FSS Zoffany.

Killarney 5.20

From the ATR pictures Emily Square looked a nice filly, made favourite here she obviously came on for her debut at Galway and went to win with something in hand.

Today

Sandown 3.30

Four FSS with runners: Lilbourne Lad (Bag Of Diamonds - having his third run this month! has shown ability in both outings to date, will get a handicap mark after today); the other three are all making their debuts; Frozen Power (Northman), Dream Ahead (Not Touch), Canford Cliffs (Stargazer).

Sandown 4.05

FSS Lilbourne Lad represented by the newcomer, Taskeen. Jordan Sport, a very encouraging third on debut at Beverley, is a full-brother to Akeed Mofeed -RPR 120- the winner of the 2013 running of the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup. Michael's Mount is a half-brother to Cambourne the winner of a Group 3 at Newbury.

York 4.20

A valuable maiden that will take a lot of winning. There are three FSS with runners; Canford Cliffs (Cliffs Of Dover - given a nice introduction on debut when 5th. of 13 in a Salisbury maiden), Zoffany (Papa Luigi - yet to get his head in four runs in maidens but a very decent second in what looked a good Goodwood maiden last time) and Cape Blanco (Real Dominion - a very promising fourth on debut at Sandown, slowly away, had traffic problems, finished well). Others to mention: Manson, second on debut and a half-brother to Jack Hobbs; newcomer Constantino who is a half-brother to, Amazing Maria, the winner of a Group 1 at Deauville earlier this month; Click And Roll is a newcomer and a half-brother to Hootenanny -RPR 115- second to The Wow Signal in the Prix Morny last year; finally Yorkeemo Sabee, 7th. of 17 on debut at Goodwood is a half-brother to smart sprinter Robot Boy. Probaly haven't mentioned the winner in that lot, it is a tough race.

Salisbury 6.05

Three FSS runners; Canford Cliffs (Bluff Crag - debut), Lilbourne Lad ( Nutbourne Lad - decent second run when only beaten three and a half lengths back in seventh place in a maiden at this course) and Poet's Voice (You Wish - a newcomer). Ginger Joe, who showed little on his debut at Nebury, is a half-brother to Buccellati -RPR 118- third in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown.

Salisbury 6.35

A Clss 5 nursery and there are two FSS with runners; Dream Ahead (Edification- has been dropped 3lbs. for his last run when 7th of 8 in a Newmarket nursery) and Roderic O'Connor (Becca Campbell - well beaten off the same mark of 62 last time).

Salisbury 7.05

FSS Elusive Pimpernel has They Seek Him Here in this, he was fourth behind Birchwood in the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Goodwood last time, two and a half lengths behind Tony Curtis who also runs in this.

Wolverhampton 7.50

A Class 6 seller with two FSS represented; Frozen Power (Madame Barker - has her first run in a seller, she was well beaten off a mark of 50 in a handicap last time) and Lilbourne Lad (Window Shopping - well beaten in a Class 5 seller last time).
 
Thanks for all the feedback!:)

Yesterday

Sandown 3.30

A very impressive winning debut by Haggas's Special Season, cam e right away from the field in the closing stages to win by seven lengths.

York 4.20

A strong maiden won in pleasing style. With her breeding, Galileo out of a George Washington mare (not many of those) it's rather surprising she isn't being trained at Ballydoyle.

Killarney 4.50

The question has to be asked, "Why didn't we get the word for Jefferson Davis?".

Salisbury 6.35

Edification, by FSS Dream Ahead, took this nursery.

Today

As of today I will only be flagging-up the top five first season sires - the only ones in double figures.

Sandown 2.15

The only non-winner in the field is Brorocco who is a half-brother to Elm Park -RPR 118- winner of the 2014 Racing Post Trophy/

Curragh 2.25

One filly jumps off the card here - Coolmore, a full-sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous.

Curragh 3.00

Sheesh!! A 24-runner maiden. Canford Cliffs has the newcomer Bearwood and Lilbourne Lad has two newcomers; Three Majors and Carter's Grove, the latter is a half-sister to Sir Prancelot -RPR 110- the winner of the 2012 Group 2 Flying Childers. Indrahar, a promising third on debut at Leopardstown, is a half-sister to Viztoria winner of the Group 2 park Stakes at Donny.

York 3.10

Dream Ahead has Raucous, unbeaten in two starts, and Poet's Voice has Ode To Evening, a nine-length winner of his maiden at Ripon before running fifth to Buratino in the Coventry.

Curragh 4.10

The Group 2 Debutante Stakes and Canford Cliffs is represented by Most Beautiful, an improving filly who won a Group 3 on this course in June.

York 4.20

Dream Ahead represented by Adham a narrow-margin winner of a Class 4 novice race at Bath on his last outing.

Curragh 4.45

A Group 3 with Zoffany represented by Dolce Strega, she showed a late turn of foot to win at Tipperary last time.
 
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Dying through lack of oxygen, the thread that is not me!......sorry to disappoint.

Cutting back to the bone.

Yesterday Dick Turpin had a winner with Fable Of Arachne in the Chelmsford 6.15.

There is only one FSS with a runner today i.e. Poet's Voice - Patanjali (Brighton 3.20).
 
Runners for top FSS today:

Brighton 2.00

ZOFFANY - Pinky Promise

DREAM AHEAD - Silent Dreamer

Brighton 3.00

POET'S VOICE - Poet's Song

Kempton 3.45

CANFORD CLIFFS - Bay Of St Malo

POET'S VOICE - Princesses Voice

Kempton 4.15

LILBOURNE LAD - Gabby's Lad

Carlisle 5.40

LILBOURNE LAD - Calypso Delegator

Leicester 6.55

CANFORD CLIFFS - Garden World
 
There were two winners for FSS yesterday:

Brighton 2.00 ZOFFANY - Pinky Promise

Kempton 2.45 ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL - Premier Currency


Only one top five FSS runner today:

Brighton 2.15 CANFORD CLIFFS - Canford Belle
 
On a week's vacation, so just a brief post.

A couple of days ago RaceBets took the FSS market off once again - not just de-activating the odds. Made enough comments about the rabbits before so everybody can come to own conclusions.

It's a joke anyway - the season heads towards a thrilling finish and they start protecting their balls more than 2 months from the end.

Anyway, Zoffany managed to take the lead first time for a while to lead CC 22 to 21 (Dream Ahead on a good 14 wins, Lilbourne Lad and Poet's Voice on 11 wins each, the rest nowhere).
 
Hope you're enjoying your holiday, Danoli.

There were no winners for FSS yesterday.

Today only one top 5 FSS has runners, LILBOURNE LAD has three:

Catterick 2.10 Spike

Lingfield 2.20 Tears In My Eyes and Totzo
 
Thanks Col, will do. Appreciate I don't have to waste time by going through the Sp.L. and the RP. I just check your post and know which races to focus on. Thx.
 
Yesterday, Mint Chai was a winner for FSS Roderic O'Connor in the Bellewstown 4.05.


Today's runners for top 5 FSS are:

Musselburgh 2.30 ZOFFANY - Mister Zoff

Tipperary 4.35 CANFORD CLIFFS - Masonbrook Lady

Tipperary 5.10 LILBOURNE LAD - Clon Rocket

Wolverhampton 8.15 ZOFFANY - Bohemian Origin
 
There were no wins for FSS yesterday.

Today's top five FSS runners:

Thirsk 1.50 CANFORD CLIFFS - Canford Kilbey

Newmarket 2.00 POET"S VOICE has two - Beatbybeatbybeat and Luso Gold

Ffos Las 2.10 ZOFFANY - Sark

Newmarket 2.30 DREAM AHEAD - Blue Moon Rising and CANFORD CLIFFS - Rio's Cliffs

Newmarket 3.05 POET"S VOICE has two - Poet's Beauty and Bathos

Newmarket 3.40 ZOFFANY - Rebel State and DREAM AHEAD - Silent Attack

Hamilton 5.20 DREAM AHEAD - Haley Bop and CANFORD CLIFFS - Cuppatee

Goodwood 5.35 DREAM AHEAD - King Of Dreams
 
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