The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Colin Phillips said:
Some newcomers that may be of interest:
Haydock 2.00
SHWAIMSA - another Canford Cliffs filly who is a half-sister to, Fractional, a winner at Group 3 level in France.
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Obliging nicely at odds of 17/2 - did not really expect this FTO win, a nice win added for CC though making it 25-23.

Let's see whether Zoffany can close the gap tonight with Al Shahaniya
 
Starspangled said:
The figures you quote are UK/Ire figures. Dubawi leads European figures by almost 800K. However, even given that, I agree that it isn't cut and dried.
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I suspect that the huge odds/on for Dubawi is based around the Arc with its huge prize money. New Bay, Postponed and Arabian Queen are cumulatively trading at significantly lower odds than Found and Ampere. It will be very interesting to watch where and how Found runs next weekend. A solid run in either the Vermeille or the Irish Champion would significantly lower her (already quite low) odds for the Arc, and we might see an adjustment of the European champion sire odds.

At this stage, however, I'd guess that Galileo will retain the UK/Ire championship with Dubawi snatching the European crown.

I'd like to add my thanks to Col for all his time and effort in producing this fantastic thread - and also to the other contributors for their enjoyable and informative updates. :)
 
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Two winners for FSS yesterday:

Haydock 2.00 CANFORD CLIFFS - Shwaimsa

Kempton 7.25 ZOFFANY - Al Shahaniya

The battle goes on.

Today's top 5 FSS runners:

Ascot 1.40 LILBOURNE LAD - Grapevine

Thirsk 1.55 ZOFFANY - Dolphin Vista

Ascot 2.15 CANFORD CLIFFS - Bay Of St Malo

Thirsk 2.30 POET'S VOICE - Ronnie Baird

Kempton 2.55 LILBOURNE LAD - Southdown Lad

Thirsk 3.05 POET'S VOICE - Bathos LILBOURNE LAD - Cotton Camera

Ascot 4.00 CANFORD CLIFFS - Hitman ZOFFANY - Knife Edge

Haydock 4.20 DREAM AHEAD - Donjon Triumphant POET'S VOICE - Vibrant Chords CANFORD CLIFFS - Thee And Me

Haydock 4.55 ZOFFANY - Foundation
 
More newcomers of interest (managed to mention a couple of nice winners yesterday - that's a refreshing change!):

Ascot 1.40

BALLET CONCERTO - a Dansili half-brother to Havane Smoker who finished second in the French 2,000 Guineas of 2011.

SATISH - Dansili half-brother to Sariska, the winner of the English and Irish Oaks of 2009.

Ascot 4.00

HITMAN - by FSS Canford Cliffs and a half-brother to Anjaal, winner of the 2013 running of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket.

Wolverhampton 6.30

ELAGWEN - an Equiano half-sister to Definightly, winner of the Listed Starlit Stakes at Goodwood.
 
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Eleanora Duse said:
Tomorrow sees two juveniles from Bell in the evening. I'd say Taurean Star and Duck a l'Orange are pretty useful and have been tried on the gallops sufficiently for me to think the former will go close. I have Duck a l'Orange as better than Taurean Star, but in a recent gallop TS slightly had the better of it, both of them coming clear of Show Legend who is a reasonable yardstick. I think Duck a l'Orange will run a big race despite being up against Culturati in what looks a good 8f maiden.
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My post from early August: Haven't helped much lately. Lost a bit of confidence in what I was seeing.
 
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Four winners for FSS yesterday:

Thirsk 3.05 POET'S VOICE - Bathos

Ascot 4.00 ZOFFANY - Knife Edge

Haydock 4.20 DICK TURPIN - Receding Waves

Haydock 4.55 ZOFFANY - Foundation

There is only one runner for the top 5 FSS today

Dundalk 3.10 ZOFFANY - Spirit Of Time




Top of the table:

ZOFFANY 26 wins 131 runs
CANFORD CLIFFS 25 - 141
DREAM AHEAD 15 - 67
POET'S VOICE 14 - 97
LILBOURNE LAD 12 -142
 
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I think Lilbourne Lad must have lost a win - I'm sure the RP bloodstock stats showed him on 13 wins last week, today he's back on 12.
 
Just checked your and my posts with previous stats and the winners since. According to these the stats of 12 wins makes sense. Don't know what happened, I think my internal stats must have gone wrong during my holiday, I guess I added a winner for LL incorrectly. So no late disqualified winner as guessed.
 
With Taurean Star going in on Friday I must put up Duck a L'Orange in today's 3rd at Windsor. Has looked a shade better than Friday's winner in gallops and definitely more of a stayer. Bell then runs a horse called Strathearn in the next who has been mixing it in the same gallops. I'd think he has chances on his Nursery start.

The problem with Bell is that although he is treated as a high profile trainer his hit-rate is relatively low. It currently stands at just over 10%. For comparison Hannon is at 16%. Stoute at about 20% and Haggas at near 25%. He needs to do better.
 
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felicity said:
I suspect that the huge odds/on for Dubawi is based around the Arc with its huge prize money. New Bay, Postponed and Arabian Queen are cumulatively trading at significantly lower odds than Found and Ampere. It will be very interesting to watch where and how Found runs next weekend. A solid run in either the Vermeille or the Irish Champion would significantly lower her (already quite low) odds for the Arc, and we might see an adjustment of the European champion sire odds.

At this stage, however, I'd guess that Galileo will retain the UK/Ire championship with Dubawi snatching the European crown.

I'd like to add my thanks to Col for all his time and effort in producing this fantastic thread - and also to the other contributors for their enjoyable and informative updates. :)
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Hi Felicity, welcome and thanks for your comments.

I realized the Arc was the main driver of the odds besides the current stats - and this was were I was wrong assuming the GB/IRL figures were the European ones thus Galileo was behind by 800.000 instead of being ahead.

The effect of the Arc is a bit difficult to weigh up though - at least this is my personal opinion. I know there are several Dubawi's in it and they are at shorter odds than the short Galileo's. However I don't rate their chances to high. I'd never fancy a typical French Derby winner over 10 furlongs in a 12 furlongs Arc, especially not on 12 furlongs of rain softened ground. New Bay is typical in the way of having had 4 races, 2 over 7 furlongs and his latest race was over 9 furlongs going back in distance from the 10 furlong Derby into a group 2. Erupt is the next shortish Dubawi and for me he still has to prove he's at the same level like Treve or Jack Hobbs. Additionally, Galileo's are in there too, for Instance Found that has just shortened with RaceBets from 20/1 to 16/1 for the Arc.

So Dubawi has numerical chances, whether they materialize in big prize money I would not be too sure at all.

Plus there is the St.Leger with by far most candidates at shorter odds being Galileo's. This is why I think he will add good prize money on Friday and still is in it with a realistic chance to defend the European title.

Dubawi may still be a justified favorite due to his 800.000 lead, it does not justify Dubawi's 2/7 and Galileo's 5/2 though. Meanwhile RaceBets have changed their odds to 1/4 and 11/4, even more crazy.

But - as you said - we might see some adjusting of these odds after next weekend. Interesting times ahead, anyway.

Thanks for your contribution Felicity!

 
Eleanora Duse said:
With Taurean Star going in on Friday I must put up Duck a L'Orange in today's 3rd at Windsor. Has looked a shade better than Friday's winner in gallops and definitely more of a stayer. Bell then runs a horse called Strathearn in the next who has been mixing it in the same gallops. I'd think he has chances on his Nursery start.

The problem with Bell is that although he is treated as a high profile trainer his hit-rate is relatively low. It currently stands at just over 10%. For comparison Hannon is at 16%. Stoute at about 20% and Haggas at near 25%. He needs to do better.
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A good result today and your confidence should be back to normal, ED.
 
Looks good on paper for Zoffany with 3 runners - I don't fancy any of them though. Particularly the Galway race looks very competetive with either the Bolger or the Weld horse the likeliest winner with the Halford horse being the danger. And the Windsor race I have reserved for ED :D
 
Can't argue with any of that, Danoli.

Some newcomers of interest today:

Galway 4.35

EBEDIYIN - a Raven's Pass half-brother to numerous smart performers, notably Eyshal, third(a rather distant one) to Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor in the 2006 National Stakes at the Curragh.

Galway 5.35

ESCAPE PARADISE - a filly by FSS Elusive Pimpernel and a half-sister to Danak, the winner of a Group 3 at Leopardstown.

Windsor 2.20

LIMONATA - a Bushranger half-sister to Limato, the winner of last year's, Listed, Redcar 2-y-o Trophy and a Group 3 at Ascot on his 3-y-o debut in April.
 
FAO Eleanora: just read this on a site I visit.

2:50 WindsorThere was a very good word for Duck A L’Orange before it’s debut, not to lump on but more for it’s work and the class they believe the animal has. I like the Newmarket race it ran in and think there will be quite a few winners coming out of it. Theydon Grey has already come out at Chelmsford and hacked up in a maiden which is very strange in itself considering it’s Charalambous’ and he doesn’t fire in many maiden winners. Duck A L’Orange could well improve significantly for that debut today and Spencer gets some good opportunities for the Bell yard.
3:20 Windsor
If Michael Bell is is the right frame of mind then Strathearn will go close in this. It’s second outing behind Peak Hill at Ffos Las was a very good run behind a useful horse and points to a decent level of improvement being eked out by this step up to a mile. Spencer is in the plate (you can have whatever opinion you choose regarding that information) and the Bell horse would have to be given a chance.

Just thought I'd mention it.
 
Danoli said:
Plus there is the St.Leger with by far most candidates at shorter odds being Galileo's. This is why I think he will add good prize money on Friday and still is in it with a realistic chance to defend the European title.
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Ah, was confused all the time by the RaceBets antepost odds for the St.Leger with a header date of September 11th - which would have been the Friday.

Quite clearly the race is to be run on Saturday, 12th and Galileo has first, third and fourth favorite in it - so there's a good chance Galileo will cut the deficit to less than half the 800.000 he was trailing Dubawi.

Nevertheless, I think we should cut this subject here now - don't want to hijack Col's 2-y-o thread with too much off-topics.

Sorry Col for messing up your thread.
 
Colin Phillips said:
FAO Eleanora: just read this on a site I visit.

2:50 WindsorThere was a very good word for Duck A L’Orange before it’s debut, not to lump on but more for it’s work and the class they believe the animal has. I like the Newmarket race it ran in and think there will be quite a few winners coming out of it. Theydon Grey has already come out at Chelmsford and hacked up in a maiden which is very strange in itself considering it’s Charalambous’ and he doesn’t fire in many maiden winners. Duck A L’Orange could well improve significantly for that debut today and Spencer gets some good opportunities for the Bell yard.
3:20 Windsor
If Michael Bell is is the right frame of mind then Strathearn will go close in this. It’s second outing behind Peak Hill at Ffos Las was a very good run behind a useful horse and points to a decent level of improvement being eked out by this step up to a mile. Spencer is in the plate (you can have whatever opinion you choose regarding that information) and the Bell horse would have to be given a chance.

Just thought I'd mention it.
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That makes 2 of us then!!
 
No FSS winners yesterday.

Today's top 5 FSS runners:

Leicester 2.30

CANFORD CLIFFS - Stargazer

Leicester 3.00

CONFERRED CLIFFS - Canford Kilbey
LILBOURNE LAD - Window Shopping

Redcar 2.20

CANFORD CLIFFS - Poplar Close
 
A couple of interesting newcomers today.

Leicester 2.00

CHESS MASTER - a Shamardal half-brother to Halfway To Heaven (winner of Group 1 Sun Chariot) and Tickled Pink (winner of Group 3 Abernant Stakes).

Leicester 5.05

LA MORTOLA - a Dubawi filly who is a half-sister to Jakkalberry (RPR 122) a Group 1 winner in Italy, the winner of the American St Leger(?) and a Group 2 winner at Meydan.
 
Thanks Col. Better chances for the 3 CC's today compared with the 3 Zoffany's yesterday.

One 11/8 favorite and a 15/8 second favorite - both at Leicester. And the Redcar runner at 4/1 is just behind the favorite and close with two others.

So decent chances for CC to level up with Zoffany today - currently it's Zoffany with a 26-25 lead.
 
Danoli said:
Thanks Col. Better chances for the 3 CC's today compared with the 3 Zoffany's yesterday.

One 11/8 favorite and a 15/8 second favorite - both at Leicester. And the Redcar runner at 4/1 is just behind the favorite and close with two others.

So decent chances for CC to level up with Zoffany today - currently it's Zoffany with a 26-25 lead.
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The Redcar CC in the 2.20 - Poplar Close - proved neither popular drifting to 11/2 nor did she finish close ending up in 8th place some 6 lengths behind the winner.

The first of the two Leicester CC's in the 2.30 - Stargazer - was gazing at the first two home but - whilst he had no close in the name - could well have been a Close Stargazer finishing less than a length behind the winner - debatable whether the Godolphin winner Move Up will move up to become a star.

The second of the two Leicester CC's - Canford Kilbey - decided to end as unplaced favorite and thus conferred the win to Bitter Orange - and could well have felt like biting one.

So, CC followed the 3 Zoffany's from yesterday to draw a blank from 3 reasonably fancied runners.
 
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going to take a chance on Shkhara in the 17.05 at Leicester. Appleby's tend to be better for the run and debut on good to soft - good ground today.

Out of Dubawi and the dam seems to have produced a couple of half decent runners - herself a winner as well.

Worth a punt at the price.
 
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