The 2017 Grand National

SlimChance said:
How many horses would you like me to name?
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Let's look at the last few winners.

Rule The World was campaigned in graded races, running well against a horse vying for RSA favouritism in No More Heroes (a sure fire way for a weight increase) before running respectably in two of Ireland's biggest handicaps thereafter. His mark didn't budge prior to heading to Aintree where, as an Irish national winner, he was sure to appreciate the step up in trip.

Many Clouds had won the Cotswold chase (or whatever it was called then) before the National weights came out. He was firmly on the ascent.

Pineau De Re won the National off his (then) highest ever mark having won his previous race over fences impressively.

Auroras Encore is arguable. Despite tumbling down the weights since a decent second in the Scottish version a year before, he'd dropped so low he wouldn't get in now and IMHO it would have been too risky a plan if it was intended.

As I said, I'm sure the trainers have plans but I don't buy into the fact that they're passing up decent opportunities throughout the year simply to target this race.

Placing a horse well, as in the case of Pineau De Re, is very different.
 
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I think this is exactly what's happening with the race. People now realise you need a bit of class to win the National. When the weights came out, Henderson was saying one of his probably wouldn't make the cut off 144 or something like that so they know they'll need to be, probably, 145 and more to get a run, then they know they'll really need to be 10lbs+ well in (ie a 155+ horse) to have a serious chance, so best to have a 160+ horse getting in lightly, but such a horse would be banging its head against a brick wall in top company, so they'd need to campaign it to make sure it had a chance at the weights... Obviously some connections will just want to have their horse run regardless and eliminating the funsters helps cut down the field.
 
wilsonl said:
Let's look at the last few winners.


Many Clouds had won the Cotswold chase (or whatever it was called then) before the National weights came out. He was firmly on the ascent.
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Just like to add that Many Clouds was campaigned for the Gold Cup in 2015, had he won that or come close he might have been pulled out of the National, in my opinion
 
Neal1962 said:
I argee, but Many Clouds was handy when Druids Nephew fell, and if they had to race to the line it could have been as interesting as Neptune Collonges vs Sunnyhillboy was.
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Yes, it's all conjecture but I'm going by my own figures which say that the form just in behind Many Clouds all works out neatly while TDN was entitled to be a good 7lbs better (ie at least 14 lengths). Is it any wonder Many Clouds could make so little impact on the race a year later off just 5lbs higher (when some of the others were lower)?
 
Grasshopper said:
Sometimes I think we give trainers too much credit, and/or are too keen to believe that they are smarter than the average bear, when they land a valuable prize. IMO, these things happen more often by accident than by design. Using RTW as an example, he ran in the National from a mark only 2lbs lower than his highest-ever chase mark. I doubt Mouse Morris figured that this would be the difference between winning and losing, and campaigned him to get his weight reduced by a bag of sugar.
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I agree, some trainers get far too much credit and just stumble along, their lack of basic knowledge sometimes when interviewed should be embarrassing but some are still successful despite this, Mick Channon being a good example. If memory serves Oliver Sherwood would not have run Many Clouds in the National when he won and he only ran on the insistance of Trevor Hemmings. Stamina is the key now not jumping ability which is why 2 moderate horses like Auroras & Pineau succeeded. Auroras won 4lbs wrong in the weights but Harvey couldn't stop moaning about about a 11b rise in the weights for winning it but still ran in the Scottish National only 2 weeks later off that higher mark when if he'd had the foresight to enter in Whitbread run a week later the horse could have run off a mark 4lbs lower than at Aintree. The race is a lottery these days.
 
I'm sticking with Vieux Lion Rouge. 66s, 25s, 16s.

Have Cause Of Causes at 33s prior to the Cheltenham win.

One For Arthur at 25s.

Probably stick with them for the day, have a speculative punt on a 100/1 shot as I always do.

Said it for the last 12 months, I believe Vieux Lion Rouge will win this National.
 
Better than what it looks. Lost a few points on Don Poli and Lord Scoundrel being withdrawn.
Can't for the love of god think of the reasoning behind me backing Lord Scoundrel, but I did. Backed 5, but the ones I have left I'm very happy with. If VLR wins I'll be the happiest man in Aintree that day.
 
I also backed five.

Definitely Red and VLR hopefully run, but Minella Foru, Don Poli and EoD all miss it.

I will try and resist the temptation to back anything else.
 
I tell a lie.

I also appear to have backed Stellar Notion at 90, and Streets of Promise at 1000/254 to Place.

The latter bets are unfathomable, given SOP would have needed about 70 horses to come out (still needs 21 and has no chance of getting in). Looking at the times they were placed, I fear I may have been the worse for an intoxicant of some description, which in part explains my forgetfulness. :whistle:
 
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I'm not having a bet until I'm reasonably confident that it won't be a bog (Tenor Nivernais in that eventuality) but, at the moment, I'm looking at Blaklion as the main bet with VLR, The Young Master and Vicente as savers. I'm still at a loss as to why the VLR fanciers aren't hedging on Blaklion.
 
Pipe retired four horses the other day - Shotavodka, Soll, Gevrey Chambertain and Red Sherlock. Ballynagour looks in the same bracket as that quartet. Doesn't finish his races at 3m plus and is essentially an older version of Le Mercurey.
 
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Not too much wrong with its finishing effort behind Drop Out Joe over 3m 2f at Uttoxeter in the summer there or when beaten in a photo by Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl the year before. Scu rode it in the National last year in preference to VLR (and anything else from the stable) and it had just got on to Rule The World's quarters when seemingly unsighted at the fence at which it unseated.Might be one of those people are too quick to write off.
 
archie said:
Fair enough, Grassy, but surely they're about the same horse at the weights.
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No doubt, archie, and I'm in no way dismissing Blaklion's chance. If I hadn't already fired seven bleedin' arrows at the race, I'd probably be taking your advice, but as it is, I'll probably limit myself to including him in combo fcs and tcs with the other three I have going for me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not too much wrong with its finishing effort behind Drop Out Joe over 3m 2f at Uttoxeter in the summer there or when beaten in a photo by Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl the year before. Scu rode it in the National last year in preference to VLR (and anything else from the stable) and it had just got on to Rule The World's quarters when seemingly unsighted at the fence at which it unseated.Might be one of those people are too quick to write off.
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This is what David Pipe said about him. Even though we know to never listen to trainers :)

"Ballynagour is a hard horse to predict, but is a very good one on his day. He ran in the race last year and was just creeping into it on the second circuit when he just left his hind legs behind and unseated Tom Scu.


"He seems to come alive on the spring ground. Two main factors for horses in the Grand National - they have to jump well and stay well.
 
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