The 2017 Grand National

He missed Tenor Nivernais who'll also be 10lbs well in. It was interesting what he said about Silver Birch. I backed it on the day on its other form. My recollection is that he wasn't put up for the X-Country win, not in regulation races anyway. I might try and check that out again.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
"Pendra will get raised for last week's effort, which I believe makes him 40th in the Grand National list, above the others on 10st 7lb"-Chris Cook
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According to my paperwork it will make him 48th (from 50th). I need to check if my paperwork is up to date. I got it from the RP site this afternoon.
 
No mention of Silver Birch's being 10lbs or whatever well in on the day in the race report. Also, the writer of the post race report the time before in the X-Country won't be too chuffed with himself for writing:Silver Birch is eyeing the Grand National in which he has 10st 6lb, and he certainly jumped nimbly here and showed his stamina, rallying after being short of room in the final bend squeeze between the first three.The 2006 Welsh National winner is 6lb higher in the ratings than when slogging home at Chepstow and therein lies his chances as he is basically a slowboat and would need similar and unlikely underfoot conditions at Aintree. Even the 40-1 pre-race offer from Totesport made no appeal so the 25-1 now should be shunned.
 
Desert Orchid said:
According to my paperwork it will make him 48th (from 50th). I need to check if my paperwork is up to date. I got it from the RP site this afternoon.
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I think the point is his allotted weight won't go up but it affects his ballot ranking relative to other horses on the same weight.
 
Yes but it's hardly worthy of the journalist making anything of it since there are only three left in on 145 and he'd be, at worst, second of them and all three will make the cut anyway.The RP site is NOT up to date, which is a friggin nuisance given the decs were made hours ago. I spent 20 minutes drafting a list of runners earlier today.
 
The new ratings haven't been updated on the BHA site either. They'll be listed in the Weekender tomorrow. I'll do a trawl at some point [of the Cheltenham runners] and list the changes in ratings. I'll be interested in seeing what he's done to Saphir Du Rheu who really should go up 9lbs. The other thing to note is that the BHA site won't list the Irish runners so it might be an idea to check what the Irish handicapper has done to Cause Of Causes et al.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He missed Tenor Nivernais who'll also be 10lbs well in. It was interesting what he said about Silver Birch. I backed it on the day on its other form. My recollection is that he wasn't put up for the X-Country win, not in regulation races anyway. I might try and check that out again.
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I think he was only concentrating on horses that ran at Cheltenham, thats why he didn't mentioned Tenor, who's well in 8lb, down 2lb from his last run( http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/horses/horse/#!/2179234)

Silver Birch was put up 10lbs for his 2nd in the Cross Country just before winning the GN. He ran next year in it off that mark but fell.
 
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Aughex said:
Silver Birch was put up 10lbs for his 2nd in the Cross Country just before winning the GN. He ran next year in it off that mark but fell.
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I really don't think that's right, Aughex (but I'm not looking for an argument, I'm just saying), I'm pretty sure SB went up the 10lbs for winning the National. I know they've been operating different scales (with some converging) for some time. Last year Any Currency was running in regulation races off a mark in the mid-130s but when he ran in the X-C he went up to the high 150s.Heads Onthe Ground won the X-C from SB off 126 yet three runs later was running at Punchestown in another X-C race off 116. No wonder the BHA wanted their own evaluations.Can you direct me to concrete evidence that SB went up the 10bs for the X-C race? As I say, if he'd been 10lbs well-in at aintree I'd have been all over him a lot more heavily than I was! Does anyone keep back copies of the RP going back that far? If so, in the Postdata section they list which horses are well-in or badly-in and by how many pounds.
 
@DO, I don't think RP is that reliable, I remember Matt Chapman also quoted some ORs from them and Phil Smith said it was wrong(I think its because RP takes the OR from either the Irish or British handicappers depending where the horse runs, and they're one OR behind anyways). SB went up before the GN, we can see that from Nicholls horse's that finished 3rd in the Cross Country. Le Duc was kept on 134 for few runs but finished 12 lengths behind him getting 4lb. Its impossible they would've left SB on the same mark for that performance and at the same time leave Le Duc on 134. Also the winner Heads On the Ground next time he raced in GB he ran off 16lbs higher mark.
 
SlimChance said:
What do you think of Houblon Des Obeaux 50/1 5 places?
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He's unquestionably well handicapped these days but he was last year too. I don't think he likes the fences. He's definitely one I'll be checking several times over before the race. He really should have hacked up in the Midlands on Saturday off his mark but he stookied every other fence all the way round. It was some performance to stay on for the minor place under top weight.
 
Going back to that video of Phil Smith, Pendra has only gone up 3lbs (which he doesn't mention) so Cause Of Causes - big mensh - goes up 5lbs, More Of That - mensh - up 2lbs but Saphir Du Rheu - not a dickie - goes up 6lbs (a bit less than I was expecting).
 
I'm finding Paddy Power are chopping horses daily for the race strangling the 5 place value. Was hoping to have a better start to my portfolio built for the race this week.
 
The best morning prices last year were 11/1 Many Clouds, 12/1 The Last Samuri, 14/1 Silviniaco Conti, 16/1 The Druids Nephew...

It'll be the same this year with SkyBet and one or two others offering 6 places.

I see little point in playing now as there doesn't seem to be an obvious springer now Rocco's out - Cause of Causes perhaps but ground watering would probably slightly dent confidence in that if it looks like it'll be riding quick.
 
We'll soon be getting to the stage where the bookies are throwing out PR red herrings to get gullible lemmings to join in hopeless gambles too...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I really don't think that's right, Aughex (but I'm not looking for an argument, I'm just saying), I'm pretty sure SB went up the 10lbs for winning the National. I know they've been operating different scales (with some converging) for some time. Last year Any Currency was running in regulation races off a mark in the mid-130s but when he ran in the X-C he went up to the high 150s.Heads Onthe Ground won the X-C from SB off 126 yet three runs later was running at Punchestown in another X-C race off 116. No wonder the BHA wanted their own evaluations.Can you direct me to concrete evidence that SB went up the 10bs for the X-C race? As I say, if he'd been 10lbs well-in at aintree I'd have been all over him a lot more heavily than I was! Does anyone keep back copies of the RP going back that far? If so, in the Postdata section they list which horses are well-in or badly-in and by how many pounds.
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How economic is Phil Smith being with the truth although anyone can make mistakes? He said he dropped Cause of Causes to 150 but he ran off 142 according to the Racing Post last week, so presumably will be going up 13lbs rather than 5lbs. Although he was rated 150 for the National for some reason, must be the Aintree factor. Regarding Silver Birch, unfortunately got rid of my old Racing Posts but have no recollection of him being well in for The National, something I used to check regularly for previous Nationals, he certainly wasn't listed as +10. It's hard to believe any horse would start at 33/1 with it well known he was 10lbs well in. Maybe Phil Smith kept it to himself till after he won the National, after all he's always been loath to give any revised marks to Irish horses untill they are entered in a race here. He never gave a revised mark to Rule The World last year although the Irish handicapper did.
 
Who do we think will go off favourite ?

I'd be reasonably confident that the two vying for it at single figures prices will be Pleasant Company, once Ruby's name is next to him and Definitely Red. The latter likely to carry the money of every Liverpool and Man Utd fan within a 50 mile radius (that'll be both about five of them then).
 
My shortlist form horses: Saphir Du Rheu(-), Shantou Flyer(a), Pendra(-), Foxrock(-), Vieux Lion Rouge, Le Mercurey(a-), Double Shuffle(a), Tenor Nivernais(-), Definitly Red.

(-) - I have doubts about trip.
(a) - young horses that could find the race too hot.

I've backed Shantou Flyer at this stage, closer to the race depending on ground conditions will go in again on one of these.
 
wilsonl said:
Who do we think will go off favourite ?

I'd be reasonably confident that the two vying for it at single figures prices will be Pleasant Company, once Ruby's name is next to him and Definitely Red. The latter likely to carry the money of every Liverpool and Man Utd fan within a 50 mile radius (that'll be both about five of them then).
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I'll be shocked if Vieux Lion Rouge isn't one of the hottest favs in years.
 
I had a look for some outers last night, and landed on about 5 of interest...........and none of them were under 11yo.

I have VLR and Definitely Red onside in terms of price. I will probably stick with those, and invest my time in the other races at the meeting.
 
Vieux Lion Rouge (just for Truncheon) and Definitly Red are the two I'm with too Grass. I backed them a while back but don't have fancy prices. 14/1 and 20/1 respectively I think.

The former requires no further investment but I will press up again near the day on Definitly Red in the hope 365 give me some of my money back to reinvest elsewhere.

I don't see a boil over in this year's race so will keep it pretty simple and have smaller interests on something like Ucello Conti and One For Arthur too. I will also not let Cause Of Causes go unbacked either and they'll probably be my five.

I threw a haymaker at Lord Scoundrel a while back at a huge price but the sulking brothers Grimm took him out so I'll give up on trying to land another.

Unlike 10+ years ago I tend not to expend too much effort on this race and I'll focus more on the supporting races
 
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