The 2017 Grand National

Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
 
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BetVictor to go NRNB and an industry leading 6 places from March 31st according to their latest app update


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I've never been able to pick the winner in the national but most times have had a place or two. This year I'm going to try something different (as after all this race comes down mainly to luck more than anything else), for the past few years I've bet on 5 horses. So this year (when final declarations are announced) I'll break the horses down into groups of eight (first five in betting, second five in betting and so on), then go over stats, trends and forms. Hopefully I'll have more success than other years, worst case scenario none place
 
wilsonl said:
Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
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Names do not dictate whats favorite, Betfauir does.
 
wilsonl said:
Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
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I was being flippant. A bad habit of mine!


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If we're using pub names, Blaklion has pretty much the same chance as Vieux Lion Rouge. Don't see how you can back one and not have a saver on the other.
 
redcat1 said:
Care to expand DO ?
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Every race has an element of luck and more luck is required in the National than in other races but it is most certainly not the most important factor in the race.It's one of the easiest races of the entire season of which to find the winner. It is invariably won by a very well-handicapped horse, and that - more than luck - rules out half the field at a stroke.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I had a look for some outers last night, and landed on about 5 of interest...........and none of them were under 11yo.
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Yeah I don't know why I ended up with so many 7yo's. Found it strange to have so many of them in my shortlist but I was only looking at their form at the time. Apparently the last one to win was in 1940..
 
Desert Orchid said:
It wouldn't have found Many clouds or Ballabriggs. That's two out of the last half dozen or so. Not convincing enough for me.
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Although I did back Many Clouds, as well as the current winner (Rule The World). I see that you're right. I'm often searching the internet for inspiration on stats, as well as thinking what traits are needed for a grand national winner.

Thinking of replacing my 3 miles 3 furlong placings to 3 miles 4 fulongs placing unless it's a class 1 race where 3 miles 2 furlongs placing is needed, in races where 8 or more ran. I state placing rather than win because I want horses like Rule The World, IE maidens to have a chance but stipulate 8 or more so placings will be meaningful.
 
As I said, Neal1962, I think the specification in distance is a bit precise but I accept that broadening it to placings might counter that. I'd say, though, the race is evolving, perhaps more quickly than at any time in its history and that established stats and trends are likely to prove less fruitful. I reckon there's more chance nowadays that a horse might NOT be asked to run at an extended trip in preparation for the race to allow connections to hide its stamina.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
As I said, Neal1962, I think the specification in distance is a bit precise but I accept that broadening it to placings might counter that. I'd say, though, the race is evolving, perhaps more quickly than at any time in its history and that established stats and trends are likely to prove less fruitful. I reckon there's more chance nowadays that a horse might NOT be asked to run at an extended trip in preparation for the race to allow connections to hide its stamina.
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It's my belief that the unique nature of the race makes it a perfect race for trends, you just need to examine the right trends. Not weight as Phil as address that and most articles used to use this trend, but distance, handling of large fields, improvement etc tnese are just off top of my head. If you examine the right trends most Grand National can be found. I except you won't find all because nothing is full prove not even studying form.
 
Hmmm... he fails to mention that every winner bar two (Foinavon and Red Marauder) in modern Grand National history (going back to about 1960) has one thing in common: being well handicapped. (Felt it important not to disappoint trendsters by saying that.)
 
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