The 2017 Grand National

Desert Orchid said:
Any reason why I should? I didn't see him make a single mistake in the Gold Cup (and he wasn't given too hard a race).
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For some reason I've got it in my mind that he isn't the best jumper. hence the comment.
Looking back at his form I know he fell in the Hennessey, and was dodgy as a Novice.
Maybe they have ironed out these issues.
 
Yes, tiggers, he was heavily backed down to 9/2f for the 2015 Hennessy off 163, having won the G1 Aintree novice chase by 15 lengths, but never really got competitive that day after a bad blunder mid-race. If he was going to win that race he'd have needed to be a top notch Gold Cup winner as it was the hottest Hennessy probably since Galway Blaze's. As it is, he still posted a Grade 1 figure that day but then reverted to hurdling. He disappointed when returned to fences but I now suspect the plan to go for this year's National had already been hatched. He never really looked seriously asked to beat Antony first time up this season in he Hennessy prep and he fell there, as you say. I'd ignore his next run back down in trip even though he was second. They were probably just checking his speed that day. He then apparently jumped very fluently at Kelso in an exhibition in a weak race that was never going to affect his OR. Then he ran superbly in the Gold Cup, not looking at all out of place (unlike Many Clouds before he won) and for my money wasn't asked too many questions up the hill. With a harder race he might have been second but why leave his chances there. I reckon it was a case of win if the race falls into your hands but Aintree is the plan. For me, he's a 170+ Grade 1 chaser getting in off 156.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hmmm... he fails to mention that every winner bar two (Foinavon and Red Marauder) in modern Grand National history (going back to about 1960) has one thing in common: being well handicapped. (Felt it important not to disappoint trendsters by saying that.)
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Flukes can happen in any race.

Foinavon happened before I was into racing, but well versed in him. He finished last in that season's Gold Cup, and was so far behind the pile up at the 23rd Fence (the fence which now bears his name) caused by Popham Down that his jockey the late John Buckingham was able to avoid it and set off with the lead. Even then it wasn't plain sailing because the horse wanted to pull up, as the video evidence clearly shows. However John did an excellent job and clearly earned his money that day. All I can say is "Hindsight is a beautiful thing" because I wouldn't back a similar case with stolen money.

Red Marauder had a bit more class than Foinavon did a system at the time which pointed out Red Marauder & Smarty but didn't go with RM, the result was a pure survival race. I backed Smarty.

Whatever way you pick your horses the are going to be those missed. I accept them and move on.
 
Did Saphir outrun his mark in the Gold Cup or was it just a **** renewal?


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Neal1962 said:
Flukes can happen in any race.Foinavon happened before I was into racing, but well versed in him. He finished last in that season's Gold Cup, and was so far behind the pile up at the 23rd Fence (the fence which now bears his name) caused by Popham Down that his jockey the late John Buckingham was able to avoid it and set off with the lead. Even then it wasn't plain sailing because the horse wanted to pull up, as the video evidence clearly shows. However John did an excellent job and clearly earned his money that day. All I can say is "Hindsight is a beautiful thing" because I wouldn't back a similar case with stolen money.Red Marauder had a bit more class than Foinavon did a system at the time which pointed out Red Marauder & Smarty but didn't go with RM, the result was a pure survival race. I backed Smarty.Whatever way you pick your horses the are going to be those missed. I accept them and move on.
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Not sure how Red Marauder could fit in with any system since he was a 2 1/2 miler and entirely unproven at 3m. Unless your system at the time revolved around the idea of 2 1/2 milers being ideal National candidates, which would have made it seriously flawed (imho).The race should have been abandoned that year and there was carnage in the first circuit, particularly at the eighth where no fewer than 11 exited the race. It was a once in a generation occurrence and probably won't happen again with the course re-designed to allow loose horses to bypass the fences.
 
TheBear said:
Did Saphir outrun his mark in the Gold Cup or was it just a **** renewal?
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I have it as a moderate renewal but with Saphir Du Rheu running to 165 despite almost certainly not being trained for the race and not being put under maximum pressure up the straight. The handicapper has him 6lbs well in but I think he's erring on the side of leniency with that. I'd say he was more like 9lbs well in, almost as well in as Definitly Red.
 
TheBear said:
Did Saphir outrun his mark in the Gold Cup or was it just a **** renewal?
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I think he ran around to 160, which puts the winner at about 167 which incidentally was is pre-race official rating. The only reason why they raised the level is because of GC rating renewal average of about 175. Thats how handicappers keep things in check, making a guess on the current winner to see how it'd fit in there. I hate this methodology but its good one for them for historical analysis, especially recent renewals as it keeps the slippage in check.

Its on my shortlist, SDR, but I can't see him anywhere near the 170 that @DO suggested. 162-3 would be the top of my generosity and if he runs to that he'll be half a stone well-in.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not sure how Red Marauder could fit in with any system since he was a 2 1/2 miler and entirely unproven at 3m. Unless your system at the time revolved around the idea of 2 1/2 milers being ideal National candidates, which would have made it seriously flawed (imho).
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It's long ago now so not quite sure myself, I notice a hurdle race in that season so I can only conclude I was using Nick Mordin's system from the weekender.
 
I appreciate you both have him well in but I'm far from convinced that this was the plan all along. Surely they'd have stuck him back over hurdles if that was the case.

I really can't have the Gold Cup form personally. The fact that about 8 horses jumped the 2nd last within about 3 lengths of each other tells you everything you need to know. If Saphir wins I won't be left scratching my head but I can't have him in my final selections.
 
Saphir has no chance. He was never asked to go outside his comfort zone at Cheltenham and won't have that luxury at Aintree. I'll be place laying him
 
Euronymous said:
Saphir has no chance. He was never asked to go outside his comfort zone at Cheltenham and won't have that luxury at Aintree. I'll be place laying him
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Tbh, that's an angle I hadn't considered, Euronymous. At least you agree about how he was ridden in the Gold Cup. Maybe he won;t have to go outside his comfort zone until very late in the national.
 
Aughex said:
Its on my shortlist, SDR, but I can't see him anywhere near the 170 that @DO suggested. 162-3 would be the top of my generosity and if he runs to that he'll be half a stone well-in.
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Well the 162 is what the official handicapper has gone for but, as I said, I think he could have gone a couple of pounds at least higher, with Sizing John around 169. That's still a disappointing winning figure for a Gold Cup, imo. Add on a little bit more sharpness in fine tuning the fitness come the National and we could be looking at the mid-high 160s for SDR.On top of that, he was a 165 hurdler and if he was fancied to win the Hennessy off 163, he'd really need to be a bare minimum 172 chaser. The way he was backed (into 9/2f) suggests they maybe felt that was his level. On my figures, if he'd run to that 172 level he'd still have struggled to be placed in what was a very, very hot renewal. I just suspect they felt after the Hennessy that 172 wasn't going to be good enough for the Gold Cup (with Cue Card etc around) so set about getting his mark down for a tilt at the National. Of course, I could be miles out with this one but I'm happy with my bets (on at 50s, laid off at 20s, backed again NRNB/BOG at 18/1.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have it as a moderate renewal but with Saphir Du Rheu running to 165 despite almost certainly not being trained for the race and not being put under maximum pressure up the straight.
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If that's the case, then surely it's likely that SDR hasn't been trained for the National either, DO?

Mind you, I'm not sure that's hugely relevant, tbh. I don't know that you can train a horse specifically for the National, beyond schooling it over spruce-fences and trying to preserve its handicap-mark ahead of the weights publication.
 
Grasshopper said:
If that's the case, then surely it's likely that SDR hasn't been trained for the National either, DO?
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Why not? They'd got its mark down to a winning one. The Gold Cup was likely to be beyond it but why not run it when it can run close to its merits without having too hard a race. As I said, if the Gold Cup had fallen apart even more than it did he might have had a chance but he could have had a harder race trying to finish second and risk leaving the national at Cheltenham.
Grasshopper said:
I don't know that you can train a horse specifically for the National, beyond schooling it over spruce-fences and trying to preserve its handicap-mark ahead of the weights publication.
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Jenny Pitman: Corbiere, Royal Athlete, Esha Ness...Would anyone say Rule The World was trained for anything other than the National? Neptune Collonges? Sunnyhill Bay? Don't Push It? Pineau De Re?My brother told me over a year before it won that he thought Comply Or Die was being trained for its National. His reasoning (which I've pinched re SDR) was that they realised after the RSA it didn't have a Gold Cup in it so they set about getting its mark down. Needless to say he was on at 33/1 when the weights came out. I reckon more than half the field almost every year have been trained specifically for the National. Obviously only one can be successful but many will have been plotted up, either cleverly or not so cleverly.
 
I think you've got some good prices for him @DO, but regarding being fancied off 163 thats just betting which takes account infinite layers from all punters/bookies and his mark might not have been the primary reason why he was backed into 9/2f. Besides look where he finished. I just don't think you can go higher than 165 for him. I think he's well handicapped as it is with 6 lb and the GC might have been the ideal prep, just like it was for Many Clouds.
 
Sometimes I think we give trainers too much credit, and/or are too keen to believe that they are smarter than the average bear, when they land a valuable prize. IMO, these things happen more often by accident than by design. Using RTW as an example, he ran in the National from a mark only 2lbs lower than his highest-ever chase mark. I doubt Mouse Morris figured that this would be the difference between winning and losing, and campaigned him to get his weight reduced by a bag of sugar.
 
His chase mark was already some way lower than his hurdles level and, as you know, most decent hurdlers are only marking time before going chasing, when their ratings take a serious (10lbs+) rise.Two pounds over the National trip is quite a difference and could easily be the difference between winning and losing since it equates roughly to four lengths (obviously will vary from horse to horse). I think to dismiss it all together is to deny the logic of handicapping. I honestly reckon 2lbs either way (more on Neptune Collonges or less on Sunnyhill Boy) would have changed the result of that race.
 
Le Mercurey looks overpriced to me at 50/1 - his form with Many Clouds, Minella Rocco & Native River makes his odds look too big and a bit of value. I know he's only 7yo but he is a good leper and looks like he'll stay all day although a bit one -paced but a good one-paced considering his proximity to the level of horses he's raced against. I can ignore his last run on heavy as The National would have been his target since his run at Aintree last December.
 
Would you spend a year plus getting your horse beat to lower his mark only to stand a chance of getting brought down at the first fence in the Nash ?

I'm sure it goes on but sounds a risky proposition to me.
 
swedish chef said:
Le Mercurey looks overpriced to me at 50/1 - his form with Many Clouds, Minella Rocco & Native River makes his odds look too big and a bit of value. I know he's only 7yo but he is a good leper and looks like he'll stay all day although a bit one -paced but a good one-paced considering his proximity to the level of horses he's raced against. I can ignore his last run on heavy as The National would have been his target since his run at Aintree last December.
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Had Le Mercurey been trained by Jonjo I could have accepted he was a plot but he just looks sour to me, otherwise I reckon he might have shown more after the weights came out. I'd also worry about his being just seven. It looks like it's just too much of a test for one so young.
 
wilsonl said:
Would you spend a year plus getting your horse beat to lower his mark only to stand a chance of getting brought down at the first fence in the Nash ?

I'm sure it goes on but sounds a risky proposition to me.
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How many horses would you like me to name?
 
Even if it does happen, how effective a strategy is it?The weight-range for this year's 40 runners is going to be about 18lbs. A trainer has to be very precise, and reasonably confident he knows what's in the handicappers head, if such a strategy is to be successful, as you can easily not get a run these days, due to the compression of the ratings.Those at the head of the weights are typically going to be G1 horses, routinely running for prize-money which is well worth winning, without even thinking about the Nash. Is Carlingford Lough routinely being 'run-under' in these races to get his mark down for the National, or is he just a marginal G1 horse who was harshly handicapped, and is now slipping down the ratings towards a mark more commensurate with his talent?For those further down the list, how does a trainer know when to stop running-under, and still be certain of getting into the 40?Are trainers really that clever? I have my doubts.
 
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