The 2017 Grand National

Surprised Dickie hasn't got a ride. Given his record in the race it's probably a good thing.

I remember loathing him when for me he got 'What's up boys' beat in 2002 I think.
 
I didn't even realise about Jonners, until Digger pointed it out to me earlier. Unbelievable that the Champion Jockey can't break into a race which has 40 runners, and where several useless huddies have a ride.
 
The Thompsons have bought Just A Par this evening and now have three runners in the race. Can't believe John Hales and his mate would have sold Vicente if it was thought it was likely to win.
 
Earlier media reports appear to have been a bit premature as Katie Walsh has just tweeted arm only bruised and will be riding Wonderful Charm after all.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
The Thompsons have bought Just A Par this evening and now have three runners in the race. Can't believe John Hales and his mate would have sold Vicente if it was thought it was likely to win.
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From what I'm told, think I've posted it before. Vicente has been bought with next years national in mind.

If it gets round and looks okay, I'll be hammering into it for next years race.
 
Has anyone got any thoughts on how to make the most of the bet365 offer and I don't mean 'pick the winner'?

Am I right in thinking you get 50% back on your stake straight after placing the bet?

I know you could lock in profit using betfair but I don't go on there.
 
Tincan said:
Has anyone got any thoughts on how to make the most of the bet365 offer and I don't mean 'pick the winner'?

Am I right in thinking you get 50% back on your stake straight after placing the bet?

I know you could lock in profit using betfair but I don't go on there.
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Just come up with a staking plan which totals £250 in each way bets. You will get £125 of it back no matter what happens.

I backed a few last year and only had Goonyella sneak a place. Still made profit.
 
Ricko said:
Scrap that I've just read the terms. I stupidly had a couple of lumpy bets with them yesterday. D'oh.
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If they are the same price now, just cash them out and make the bets again. I did this with mine and increased the size of my bank nicely. They refund you straight away. In previous years it took a few hours.
 
MoscowFlyerisMagnificent said:
If they are the same price now, just cash them out and make the bets again. I did this with mine and increased the size of my bank nicely. They refund you straight away. In previous years it took a few hours.
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Cheers for that I placed a couple of bets on Wednesday too as thought the offer wouldn't be made this year and have cashed out and replaced this morning


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Phew...

That's me finished all my figures and notes.

While I stand by what I've always said about the race being won by a well-handicapped runner, there's about 20 that qualify!
 
What with a number of e/w doubles running on from the Lincoln (Place only) and golfers in the Masters still in with a chance I feel like I've covered half the field too!

My strongest thoughts revolve around:
1) Vicente
2) Blaklion
3) The Young Master

at bigger prices I'll keep an eye on

4) Shantou Flyer
5) Drop Out Joe.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Phew...

That's me finished all my figures and notes.

While I stand by what I've always said about the race being won by a well-handicapped runner, there's about 20 that qualify!
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Year on year, three quarters of the field; either dont run over the larger obstacles, spend their time running at the wrong distance to get their mark down, or are ambling around schooling in public. Phil Smith thinks he's wise to the Giggi outfit, but they have simply exploited his attempts to attract the top horses. The lower he makes the best the better handicapped their others are when they pull out the bosses.
Very many of the entrants that are in tomorrow could have got in last year but last year wasn't the aim. Pleasureofmydreams has surely got to be the best handicapped of all. His route here smacks of protecting a good mark, and he's at the right end of the field weight wise.
 
With all the watering going on, I've decided to go in again this time for Tenor Niver who'll enjoy the ground. In big fields its also a plus to be prominent and avoid troubles so he checks that box and also he's well handicapped. The doubt reg. trip is valid but maybe he;ll last home for a place and at the prices its worth finding out.
 
Wouldn't Brian Cooper be on the owners best hope. He rode First Lleutenent last year, who was never in the hunt before falling. Best hope and best handicapped dont always tie in. How do we know what has gone into the thoughts and the choices of mounts. Jockey's are notoriusly good at making the right choice are they?

Meyler on the 40/1, Flanagan the 66/1; you may have reasoned a bit of value there DO.

WW's best performance is arguably a flattering 7L defeat by Don poli in the RSA, POMD's a 7L and 6L defeat by Minella Rocca and Native River who were all out, in the National Hunt Chase...Half brothers so should have similar stamina qualities, one gets a 7lb pull with the other.
Flanagan rode the latter at Cheltenham in a handicap recently, he was 25/1, Clarcam was 50/1, ridden by Cooper in the same race; which brings me to the assumption that, Flanagan was on POMD's because he was his possible intended National mount. He may well have had the choice, the owners may well think Meyler would be better suited, who knows.

Pleasureofmydreams was the 8/1jt fav to confirm that NHunt chase form with the 14/1 Vicente in the Scottish Grand National, he didnt get further than the 3rd fence and Vicente won it.

Vicente to me only confirms POMD's is well handicapoed, he was a further 7L's back at Cheltenham.

Fitted with first time cheek pieces today he could return to his best, im hopeful.
Ive doubled all four Shantou's with Bravery in the Lincoln, and Bishops Road.
 
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I have settled on these three in order of preference and depth of stake. Having written them down I am now also duty bound to do an always trifecta rather than spend the rest of my life crying 'why, oh why?'

Definitely Red
Vicente
Ballynagour
 
<style type="text/css">p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Arial; color: #272727; -webkit-text-stroke: #272727}p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Arial; color: #272727; -webkit-text-stroke: #272727; min-height: 14.0px}p.p3 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Arial; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000; min-height: 14.0px}p.p4 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Arial; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000}span.s1 {font-kerning: none; color: #000000; -webkit-text-stroke: 0px #000000}span.s2 {font-kerning: none}</style>5.15 - Aintree - Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase:

There are several factors which could cause some established Grand National stats to be busted in the near future and, as with any stats based analysis, much depends on the bias that's placed on any particular trend. The more the race tends toward 'just another handicap' over a longer trip the less emphasis there will be on some stats.

Key Trends:

17 of the last 20 winners were aged 9,10 or 11.
17 of the last 20 winners carried less than 11-1.
16 of the last 20 winners were rated >=139
15 of the last 20 winners had finished in the top four in at least one of their last two starts.
18 of the last 20 winners had run between 20 and 42 days prior to the race.
17 of the last 20 winners had 2 or 3 runs that year.
17 of the last 20 winners had won a race beyond three miles.
16 of the last 20 winners had previously won a Class 1 race.

Other Trends Of Note:

Top 2 finish over 26 furlongs+
Top 2 finish in a Hennessy, Becher, any 'National', 3 mile+ Chase at Cheltenham/Aintree Festival or any 3 mile+ Grade One Chase.
Top 2 finish in a Chase with 16+ runners.
At least 10 starts over fences.
Had 3 to 6 runs that season (October onwards)
A top 2 finish in at least one of their last three starts.

Analysis:

Three at the head of the market have one thing in common. Definitely Red (ten pounds), More Than That (two pounds) and Vieux Lion Rouge (six pounds) are all officially ahead of the handicapper. Saphir Du Rheu (six pounds), Tenor Nivernais (eight pounds), Blaklion (four pounds), Double Shuffle (three pounds) and Just A Par (four pounds) all join that group and in any other handicap that would be the first starting point. However Definitely Red has produced his best form in small fields and can make the odd blunder but a flat left-handed track suits him well. Vieux Lion Rouge may not stay as well as some of these, although his Trainer states that he is a stronger horse this year and he settles better. More Of That has the back class but has been beset with physical problems in recent times and an encouraging effort in the Gold Cup may have left it's mark. Saphir Du Rhea has won some good races but he still hasn't reached the heights he was thought capable of. The drying ground is in his favour and he could go very well if taking to the fences but he doesn't inspire as a 'typical National horse'. He can make the odd error and has never won a Chase with more than nine runners. Tenor Nivernais needs much softer ground than he is likely to get here. Double Shuffle is an excellent jumper but he is only a seven year old and has only run over three miles on his last two starts, winning one of them and rallying well in the other. He is not guaranteed to stay today's trip. Just A Par will need luck in running and he often hits a flat spot during his races. He has the experience and he was 15th last season but his Trainer has better hopes.

Cause Of Causes hasn't backed up his Cheltenham form at this meeting for the past three years and Pleasant Company has only had six starts over fences which would make him the least experienced Chaser to have won this race if he prevails. Vincente and Ballynagour come here in poor form and the same could've been said about Rogue Angel until he showed more encouragement in the Thyestes at Gowran Park. Ucello Conti showed up well for a long way in this race last season before seemingly not staying. Better ground and an error free round could see him get closer. Horses like Wonderful Charm and, in particular, The Young Master are not without chances but preference is for a short list of One For Arthur, Blaklion, Highland Lodge, Saint Are and Houblon Des Obeaux.

One For Arthur - Has shown is best form on soft ground but he warmed to the task in the Becher Chase here on his penultimate start on G/S ground and overnight watering may give him just enough cut in the ground for him to be effective. has been hit with an eleven pound rise for easily winning the Betfred Classic at Haydock in January but, on the positive side, that has enabled him to get into this race. Hold-up style will require luck in running and has been off for longer than ideal but he does go very well fresh. Only had ten starts over fences but he has a progressive profile and promises to stay this trip well.

Blaklion - Has fewer negatives than most of those that are ahead of their mark. He was beaten just over three lengths by Vieux Lion Rouge in the National Trial at Haydock, the pair clear of the rest, and his Trainer is adamant that he will improve for that run. The form of the yard was a concern but a win at this meeting and a couple at Ludlow in the past week have somewhat allayed those fears. He looks an assured, intelligent jumper who promises to stay and won't mind the drying conditions.

Highland Lodge - Hasn't been seen since being narrowly beaten by Vien Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase over theses fences in December. That can be considered a negative but he does go well fresh and has been laid out for this. He won the aforementioned Becher Chase here in 2015 but a mark of 148 looks very stiff and probably requires a career best if he is to win. On the upside he seems to love these fences, drying ground will not pose a problem and there are some very strong stayers in his pedigree.

Saint Are - Second in this race two seasons ago and has successfully negotiated these fences four times. Drying conditions will suit him much better than the soft ground he encountered last season and he comes here on the back of a narrow victory last time out at Doncaster. Only four pounds higher than when going down less than two lengths to Many Clouds so he is not out of this from a weights perspective. Davy Russell has yet to even place in a national but Saint Are promises to break that hoodoo.

Houblon Des Obeaux - Confidence in Houblon Des Obeaux would've been greater had the ground not dried out significantly. There's little doubt he is better in slower conditions than he will get here but he is still a horse who has a likeable profile. Fourth in the Midlands national at Uttoxter last month where he was staying on over the extended 33 furlongs. He has also made the frame in the Betfred Classic and the Welsh national this season and is a former three time Graded winner over fences. Attractively weighted, even on his form this season, and hails from a yard who knows what it takes to win this race. Even though the ground has gone against him he possesses enough positives to believe he could make the fame at least.

Selections:

Blaklion - 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1. (Betway - 1/4 odds first 6)
One For Arthur. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1. (Betway - 1/4 odds first 6)
Highland Lodge. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Betfair - 1/4 odds first 5)
Saint Are. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 40/1 (William Hill - 1/4 odds first 5)
Houblon Des Obeaux. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 50/1. (Betvictor - 1/4 odds first 6)

I put these up after already backing Saphir Du Rheu antepost and also Tenor Nivernais but I have gone a little cold on them.
 
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