The 2020 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.45 Blakeney Point 20/1 to 5 places appeals but isn't the main bet.
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A bit disappointing but the main bet was Volcanic Sky at 15/1 to 5 places which ensured a profit on the race. I did get a wee shudder 2f out when I thought he was coming through to win but he didn't stay. Hopefully the handicapper will drop him a couple and he can target something like the November Handicap. I'm a wee bit annoyed at not also backing Summer Moon, especially given the price, which I never really checked because I had noted that her best ratings were at 2m4f but once she got to hit the front her stamina was keeping her there. She was second top on my figures and I didn't fancy the top one (Here And Now).

There's maybe a wee lesson to be taken from today.

Ghaiyyath stays 12f, got to lead and stayed there. Summer Moon stayed further than the race trip, got to the front early in the straight and stayed there. Looks like prominent runners who stay further than the race might have an edge.
 
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York thursday

SHELIR 245 22/1 but I'm being greedy I've took 28/1 3 places.likes soft going but has been frustrating.

I expect DO will possibly put this up but I've always followed it and though badly drawn I have to do GLASVEGAS 455 chester 45/1 4 places.

I've also done DOCUMENTING 245 20/1 although it's been put up 6lb for winning and a bit further.
 
I wouldn't have time to look at Chester but I might stick some sickness insurance on Glasvegas now that you've highlighted it. I'll have a look at it in the morning.
 
York 2.45 - What's The Story 20/1 5pl - Of the four (maybe 5) bets I'm having in the race this is probably the one I fancy the least but it's still worth a small punt at the best terms on offer. He won the race last year off 103 but I went very high with my figures for that renewal so he could win again off 3lbs higher. Interestingly, he's still engaged in the Ebor but there's every chance he'll be taken out at the dec stage later this morning.

I'll need to wait until after 10am to post the other qualifiers for the thread in order to get the price matches and BOGs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll need to wait until after 10am to post the other qualifiers for the thread in order to get the price matches and BOGs.
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The other two qualifiers for today are also in the 2.45. My two main fancies are near the front end of the market so these are just attempts at stealing some value.

Chatez 50/1 to 5 places - is seriously well handicapped on his career best. He won last year’s Spring Cup off 99 for which he went up to 104 but was off injured following his next run. Three quiet runs this season see his mark drop to 95 so if he’s fit, well and still as good as he was he’s on a winnable mark. King pulled a couple of rabbits at royal Ascot so his chance can't be as forlorn as those odds. Of my longshots for the race, he'd be the one I like best.

Another Touch 66/1 to 5 places - hit form late last season on the AW but has good career form on turf, arguably his best run being over CD in a Listed race a couple of years ago, a level he hit on the AW against Via Serendipity at the start of this year.
 
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Weaver just mentioned Kraken something at a big price in this 2.15. I tried to get 66s. Had to settle for 50s. Presume he's heard something.
 
I am seriously hoping for the dead eight runners in the Nunthorpe tomorrow as Moss Gill (E/W) will out run the odds of 50/1(Hills) to possibly get a place depending on how the big three do.

A few may remember when I mentioned Moss Gill the last day, especially Danny who thought it needed better ground. It's definately a big if, but if one or two don't run their best races Moss Gill I believe will run the race of his life, having shown a real liking for York both last season plus on his most recent run in a listed race. I cannot see him out the first four let's put it like that.

You simply never know what may get scratched as a non runner before the race. Let's hope the racing gods are with me on this bet. Its a shame there wasn't extra runner in there now as a little bit of insurance against a non runner happening.
 
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Haha. I figure I just need one of the market leaders to put in a below par effort and I could get this right.

Maybe I am too keen on Moss Gill.

Stranger things have happend. :)
 
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I reckon he will put in a life time best, I can see it happening. More likely that he will go on again from his last listed win than go backwards, imo. If he does this we shall see how far away he is at the finish. The three places are imperative though.
 
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I might be tied up for a while tomorrow morning so am getting some of these on this evening, just in case.*

In the 1.45, I've taken a saver on Byron Flyer at 25/1. On his best form of last season he's handicapped to win a race of this nature. He was second in a £50k handicap at Epsom last June off 104 and gets in here off 101. He's top weight, ipso facto he's the class horse in the race and he tried to make all at Epsom. He might get away with it here in a race that isn't anywhere near as competitive as the numbers imply.

* As a complete aside, I need to take our trusty old Honda Jazz (57 plate, 131k miles, Terracleaned at 84k) to the garage to get it checked out and that might take up most of the morning. A neighbour's diagnostic machine says it's the EGR valve that's causing the wee orange engine alert light to come on but the garage says they need more info than just that. I would have a go at cleaning the valve myself but I put my old socket set in for recycling last year because it was an imperial one and I hadn't used it for literally decades since I switched to Japanese cars and Audis (apart from the Jag which I would never have attempted to fix). So if any petrol head out there knows of a simple fix (apart from blanking off the valve), like the proverbial wheatfield I'm all ears.
 
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Marb said:
Haha. I figure I just need one of the market leaders to put in a below par effort and I could get this right.

Maybe I am too keen on Moss Gill.

Stranger things have happend. :)
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Why not take a lesser price 4 places mate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I might be tied up for a while tomorrow morning so am getting some of these on this evening, just in case.*

In the 1.45, I've taken a saver on Byron Flyer at 25/1. On his best form of last season he's handicapped to win a race of this nature. He was second in a £50k handicap at Epsom last June off 104 and gets in here off 101. He's top weight, ipso facto he's the class horse in the race and he tried to make all at Epsom. He might get away with it here in a race that isn't anywhere near as competitive as the numbers imply.

* As a complete aside, I need to take our trusty old Honda Jazz (57 plate, 131k miles, Terracleaned at 84k) to the garage to get it checked out and that might take up most of the morning. A neighbour's diagnostic machine says it's the EGR valve that's causing the wee orange engine alert light to come on but the garage says they need more info than just that. I would have a go at cleaning the valve myself but I put my old socket set in for recycling last year because it was an imperial one and I hadn't used it for literally decades since I switched to Japanese cars and Audis (apart from the Jag which I would never have attempted to fix). So if any petrol head out there knows of a simple fix (apart from blanking off the valve), like the proverbial wheatfield I'm all ears.
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Don’t go to all that trouble, Desert. Just put a sticker over the warning light an drive on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I might be tied up for a while tomorrow morning so am getting some of these on this evening, just in case.*

In the 1.45, I've taken a saver on Byron Flyer at 25/1. On his best form of last season he's handicapped to win a race of this nature. He was second in a £50k handicap at Epsom last June off 104 and gets in here off 101. He's top weight, ipso facto he's the class horse in the race and he tried to make all at Epsom. He might get away with it here in a race that isn't anywhere near as competitive as the numbers imply.

* As a complete aside, I need to take our trusty old Honda Jazz (57 plate, 131k miles, Terracleaned at 84k) to the garage to get it checked out and that might take up most of the morning. A neighbour's diagnostic machine says it's the EGR valve that's causing the wee orange engine alert light to come on but the garage says they need more info than just that. I would have a go at cleaning the valve myself but I put my old socket set in for recycling last year because it was an imperial one and I hadn't used it for literally decades since I switched to Japanese cars and Audis (apart from the Jag which I would never have attempted to fix). So if any petrol head out there knows of a simple fix (apart from blanking off the valve), like the proverbial wheatfield I'm all ears.
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I agree with the garage, an EGR valve fault code doesn't always mean it's faulty, could be an electrical switch problem or a few other things. These do seem to be a problem on the Jazz though, luckily they also look pretty easy to change.

Don't know what sort of driving you do, but first thing I would do before spending any money, is run it down the motorway for about 30 minutes, keeping the revs around 2500-3000rpm, that can sort them if its just a small blockage.

If it is the EGR valve, for the price of a new one I would just get one rather than mess about cleaning it. Carbon is a bit of a nightmare to get off, and the chances of you getting it all, is unlikely unless you use chemicals and heat. Assuming the one below fits yours, I would rather just pay the £46 and replace it. You could also pop your reg in eurocarparts and see what it comes up with (remember to go to checkout and enter the current discount code to get the real price)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/FOR-HOND...rand=Unbranded&_trksid=p2047675.c100005.m1851

It looks like 2 bolts and the electrical clip, from having a quick look about, it will probably take 15 mins to change.

Heres a thread on it

https://clubjazz.org/forum/index.php?topic=5345.0

It might be worth ringing a dealer for a price on the part too, Peugeot surprised me recently by being cheaper for something than I was about to pay for from ebay! Doesn't always work like that though as they also surprised me when I asked for a price to fix an oil leak (gasket costing £6) , and the quote was £742. Local garage did it for £40.
 
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Appreciated, Col. The garage across the road said "around £300" to replace the EGR. I checked the prices online and it was £250 for the part.

It looks a very easy job. I can see the EGR valve next to the engine block and it's very accessible, which is why i was thinking of attempting it myself.

The car is/was Orchidette's. We passed it on to her a few years back to get her mobile. I got it Terracleaned for her at around 85k miles so I was surprised the fault arose even now. I negotiated a new personal lease Jazz for her last September and the car has been in the garage pretty much ever since. I think that's part of the problem. Maybe a wee run will help. The place that usually services our cars is a half-hour's drive away so maybe just going there will help. I just didn't want to risk damaging the engine because the car runs like a dream.
 
£250 seems a high price for an EGR valve, have you checked on https://www.eurocarparts.com/?
I would check ebay too, you don't need an original Honda part for a car that age, in fact a used one would probably be fine. There might be different ones for different versions of the car but there are quite a few on ebay for £50ish brand new, but defo take it for a run first :)
 
Thanks again, Col.

Garage chappy says it's the electrical component of the valve that's "gubbed" so it's definitely a new valve that's required. He said for him it's about £170 for the part and maybe £20 for fitting plus VAT, so about £225. I'm not sure I should spend that on a car of its age and mileage. He suggested ebay too and said it's a very easy DIY job.

Ebay here I come...
 
My two for the EBOR tomorrow.
I put Euchen Glen up on the a/p thread at 33s and I'm hoping for a good run tomorrow.
My other one is KINGS ADVICE 33/1 with hills now 5lb lower than its last win.it started last March winning off 71 and won off 108 later.
Has winning form on soft/heavy but that was over 1m 2f.
 
Outsider said:
My two for the EBOR tomorrow.
I put Euchen Glen up on the a/p thread at 33s and I'm hoping for a good run tomorrow.
My other one is KINGS ADVICE 33/1 with hills now 5lb lower than its last win.it started last March winning off 71 and won off 108 later.
Has winning form on soft/heavy but that was over 1m 2f.
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KA is very much on my radar too, Outsider.
 
Marb said:
I reckon he will put in a life time best, I can see it happening. More likely that he will go on again from his last listed win than go backwards, imo. If he does this we shall see how far away he is at the finish. The three places are imperative though.
Click to expand...

Got your place, well done.
 
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