The 2020 Longshot Thread

Maruco said:
Just reading through this, and I see a few of you guys are on the same selection as me in the 3.35 George Bowen. That four of us that have tipped up the same horse at 40/1. Surely a first for this thread! :blink:
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Fuckin Jonah :lol:
 
I'm going to put one up a/p for the EBOR.

EUCHEN GLEN 33/1 gen 50/1 SB.

Looks as if it's been running with this race the aim.
 
Just one today (so far).

Ascot 2.25 Silent Attack 40/1 - seems better on the all-weather but last January he was a close third in a £100+k handicap at Meydan off 103 for Saeed bin Suroor. He missed last summer and was sold out of Godolphin to be trained by Tony Carroll who got him back to form on the all-weather last back-end getting his mark up from 98 to 102. After the return from lockdown he was well beaten in the Buckingham Palace then withdrawn from a race due to good-to-soft ground, which had also prevailed at Ascot and might therefore explain the poor run, and he showed a lot more at York a couple of weeks ago on better ground. He’s been dropped another 3lbs to 97 and the claimer is operating at 21% for the trainer – 75% at placings first to fourth – so his 5lbs might be worth taking into account.
 
Silent Attack doesn't run so money probably saved.

However, I've re-invested it on Ernest in the 3.00 at Ascot. He's a Listed winner over 1m6f in Germany but has run tamely in both starts here for his new trainer. He'll probably return to some sort of form at some point and has come down 5lbs for those two runs. They might want him down further with something bigger in mind but at 80/1 and an extra place on offer it's enough to tempt me today.
 
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Here's a wild one for tomorrow...

In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours but I thought I'd get on now just in case it goes the other way. Obviously Dream of Dreams will be very hard to beat but I'm totally underwhelmed by the rest of the field. Lincoln Bright's RPRs on his three runs to date are 64, 74 and 99 so I've extrapolated that curve and let my imagination run riot. But just another 10lbs would get him in the mix for the places and his trainer isn't one for tilting at windmills.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Here's a wild one for tomorrow...

In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours but I thought I'd get on now just in case it goes the other way. Obviously Dream of Dreams will be very hard to beat but I'm totally underwhelmed by the rest of the field. Lincoln Bright's RPRs on his three runs to date are 64, 74 and 99 so I've extrapolated that curve and let my imagination run riot. But just another 10lbs would get him in the mix for the places and his trainer isn't one for tilting at windmills.
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You certainly live dangerously, Desert. Last time I backed anything over 20/1 was around 1984 :)
 
barjon said:
You certainly live dangerously, Desert. Last time I backed anything over 20/1 was around 1984 :)
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Check back through this thread, Barjon. Plenty of great runs from big-priced runners to prove the risk is worth it sometimes. And chuck in the winners of the Wokingham (40/1) and Stewards' Cup (25/1)!!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Check back through this thread, Barjon. Plenty of great runs from big-priced runners to prove the risk is worth it sometimes. And chuck in the winners of the Wokingham (40/1) and Stewards' Cup (25/1)!!
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Aye, and the 300/1 job yesterday. Evidently WH took 86 bets on him and PP “almost 100”. The owner didn’t have a bet, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Hungerford, I've taken a pop at Lincoln Bright at 66/1 with Sky. The next best price elsewhere is 40/1. The chances are that the rest will fall into line with Sky over the next 24 hours
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They did indeed fall into line with Sky but one bookie is now going 100/1 so I've gone in again.

I've also taken 25/1 place-only (Betvictor only 5/2 in that market).

I'm the Billy Bunter of self-flagellation.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.
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In theory today's Geoffrey Freer is a lesser race than the Derby although, Serpentine apart, it was a poor Derby, but I have to have some sickness insurance on Max Vega today. Not putting it up as a selection for the thread as it doesn't qualify. Just reminding that I put it up at long odds back then :lol:
 
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I've dug up four for today.

In the Great St Wilfrid, George Bowen is given another chance to show his Stewards' Cup form to be wrong. Three of us put him up for that race and I don't plan on being sick if he comes out and wins this. I thought he made his effort a furlong too soon that day and was spent late on. It was still disappointing, though, given his known level. He's only 28/1 today but some are going six places with it.

Nwb 2.25 - Boardman might be a bit of headcase but was still fighting the jockey two out at Goodwood before being hampered and eased right down. Before that at Ayr he hung again but might have needed the run anyway. He probably shouldn't be 40/1 although he was withdrawn recently due to softish ground.

Nwb 3.00 - I'm actually backing four in this race because I think all four are too long. Only two qualify for the thread. We all know about Cosmelli as he's been on this thread, with some success, over the piece. The received wisdom is that he's better on the AW but there are grounds for believing that he can still produce the goods on turf. If those grounds are well founded he shouldn't be 25/1. One that pricks my curiosity is Darksideoftarnside at 50/1. He was on a gentle curve last season for Ian Williams and is now with an even shrewder operator in Neil Mulholland who knows how to lay one out. No worthwhile form in two runs for the new yard but probably shouldn’t be 50/1 either on last year's best.
 
Sunday was one disappointing run after another. It's quite galling seeing them either not trying out the back or going too fast out in front.

But we live to fight another day.

I put up Juan Elcano (2.45 York) the other day as a super each-way bet at 16/1 but it's out to 20s this morning. I suspect there's a feeling he won't stay, maybe because he ran in the Guineas, but his dosage suggests strongly otherwise. I've gone in again at the longer price with the BOG.

In the 1.45 I've taken 22/1 A Momentofmadness to six places. I put him up at Goodwood but I'm not convinced he was there to win. If today isn't the day then the Portland almost certainly will be but he is my main bet in the race. Not a qualifier today but Hyperfocus is the main saver. I thought seriously about Jawwaal when it was 8/1 but can't back it now and the other fancy is Acclaim The Nation, for information purposes only.

In the 3.45 Blakeney Point 20/1 to 5 places appeals but isn't the main bet. He hacked up over hurdles recently for his new yard so should be fit. He's very well handicapped on his best form for Roger Charlton when he was beaten only six lengths off 105 in the 2018 Ebor before beating Hochfeld at levels in a Listed event at Chester. Last year he was only five lengths off Eddystone Rock in this race off 99. He's 5lbs lower here. On that form alone he's entitled to be in the mix.
 
Well done!

For what its worth, I've backed Broxi ew in the Acomb at 33s this morning. You too can lose your money on him.
 
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