The 2020 Longshot Thread

Gwd 2.15 - King's Caper 20/1 - Dangerously priced for a Johnston-Fanning horse in this race and touched off in a G2 in Italy last time. I was hoping for 25s but Paul Kealy has put it up so had to take what I could get as it's gone blue across the board. Not my main bet in the race, though.
 
MUKHA MAGIC 145 good 66/1 and 30/1 7 places.wasnt far behind the great visor at Royal ascot over 2m 6f and is 16lb better off.
 
Outsider said:
MUKHA MAGIC 145 good 66/1 and 30/1 7 places.wasnt far behind the great visor at Royal ascot over 2m 6f and is 16lb better off.
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I was just coming on to put up the same horse!

I'm always more hopeful when our findings coincide!

The difficulty is in translating non-handicap form to handicaps and the time behind Who Dares Wins wasn't great so his apparently much improved form has to have a question mark but at 66/1 I am willing to pay to find out.
 
Outsider said:
MUKHA MAGIC 145 good 66/1 and 30/1 7 places.wasnt far behind the great visor at Royal ascot over 2m 6f and is 16lb better off.
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Well,that was disappointing with it not running especially the way grand visir ran.

DAWN RAIDER 615 Galway 50/1 I put this in my alerts after it wknd over 3m at galway behind Mr Smith.its 2m5f tonight 6lb less plus a 7lb claim.
 
Outsider said:
Well,that was disappointing with it not running especially the way grand visir ran.

DAWN RAIDER 615 Galway 50/1 I put this in my alerts after it wknd over 3m at galway behind Mr Smith.its 2m5f tonight 6lb less plus a 7lb claim.
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How pathetic was that.i dont know who is worse,me or the horse.
 
1.45 Lucander 22/1 - My main fancy came out so I looked for an interest, to be honest, in an otherwise duff race. Something (more than one, probably) will show more improvement than anticipated and it could end up a decent enough race but nothing jumps out. Lucander has a decent time rating in his CV so maybe was not over it last time out. I let 25/1 go last night hoping for 33s this morning but he's blue pretty much across the board. No strong case for this one, just a pop at a price.
 
I will be backing about 4 in the stewards cup.some with my heart and one with my head.
The one that seems to stand out for me is stones of destiny 22/1 boosted to almost 25/1 with a,hill
Has been running well and is well in with others in the race from last year and well in on it's running against hey jonesy.
Reared up leaving the stalls latest.
 
Likewise head and heart! Have backed Watan (classy), Atalanta’s Boy (course form) and took 10s about Meraas a couple of days ago. But then what do I do about Nahaarr who’s one of my tracker horses but v short.
 
I too will be backing my usual handful in the race as well as trying to sniff out daft value at stupid prices to small stakes.

It won't be my main fancy for the race but this evening I took 28/1 Angel Alexander. He won the Ayr Gold Cup the hard way on the unfavoured side and has come back down to a mark just 2lbs higher. I've rated him the wide-margin winner of a good Saturday handicap for which he should maybe have gone up 10lbs. He only went up 5lbs and moved into Group company. I'm hoping the Wokingham was a pipe-opener and he's visored for the first time. He might have to do it the hard way against the stands rail but he also has the option of going with the pace horses in the centre.
 
In today's Golden Mile, I've been looking for something to cover my Prompting bet but I don't want to chuck away the win portion of an each-way bet so I've taken 28/1 ew Blown By Wind in the market w/o Prompting. On his best form he's got as good a chance as anything else, is arguably still on a curve and will almost certainly be off for his life. His draw is the worry but he is well up to placing in the race and if he's second to Prompting he'll pay out as a winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In today's Golden Mile, I've been looking for something to cover my Prompting bet but I don't want to chuck away the win portion of an each-way bet so I've taken 28/1 ew Blown By Wind in the market w/o Prompting. On his best form he's got as good a chance as anything else, is arguably still on a curve and will almost certainly be off for his life. His draw is the worry but he is well up to placing in the race and if he's second to Prompting he'll pay out as a winner.
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The ew market without the favourite has been removed!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Slightly perplexed by Ornate's run. Didn't break quite as well as I'd hoped and always seemed to be struggling to keep up before dropping back a bit but appeared to be full of running late on.
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If he'd run to today's level earlier in the week he'd have pished up.
 
Primo's Comet 25/1 in the stewards consolation big run in it last year 3lb lower in the handicap now and not in awful form currently.

Open Wide 33/1 in the stewards proper , ditto just hope they don't over do it with the watering tonight.
 
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Danny said:
Primo's Comet 25/1 in the stewards consolation big run in it last year 3lb lower in the handicap now and not in awful form currently.

Open Wide 33/1 in the stewards proper , ditto just hope they don't over do it with the watering tonight.
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My mate has done primos and I've done open wide.good luck mate.
 
A few years ago there was a Mark Johnston horse who ran in Dubai in the spring, didn't show much, came back to the UK and again ran below form on his return run. He then went in at a big price next time out. So, Dubai knocked the stuffing out of the horse and it took a pipe opener back home before he was ready to rock n roll. I'm not 100% certain I'm not imagining this angle but anyway, on the basis that It wasn't a dream - Angel Alexander 40/1 Stewards Cup. Hills 7places.
 
Copied and pasted from the Goodwood thread:

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Originally Posted by Outsider
I've done 5 in the stewards cup for different reasons and probably still wont get the winner.
KIMIFIVE got 25/1 I have always backed this but needs a lot of luck.young fallen claiming 3lb is a bonus.
OPEN WIDE 33/1 is another one I've followed and will need the gaps.last year it opened up just right and he flew into 2nd.
HEY JONESY you would think this course would be ideal and after the wokingham I have to back it again.
SUMMERGHAND just lost out in the wokingham but O'meara went and won a £6000 race with him so hes worse off now.didnt make sense to me but you still cant rule it out.
STONES OF DESTINY is well in with a lot of these but the drift is worrying.





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Originally Posted by Danny
I think I've gone with Tinto 40/1, Open Wide 33/1 Barbill 20/1 Silent Echo 28/1 and The Swindler 12's. So if Primo can run a big race I should have a fair bit of interest in the big one. Out Of them I probably like Tinto best but that may just be because his price is jucier. He is 3lb better off with Summerghand when beating him earlier in the season and this easier track should only help him uphold that form. He ran a shocker last time out that would be my only worry but I have my suspicions the ground was softer at Newbury than was declared back on proper fast ground tomorrow he should go well.



This is making me feel quite hopeful as I find myself straddling camps with Outsider and Danny, two good judges of value longshots.

Just need Swedish Chef and a third leg...

I fully respect the profiles and claims of the likes of Nahaarr and Meraas and a win for either, or indeed any of the top half-dozen in the betting, wouldn't surprise me but I'm not convinced about their value. I'm happy to let them win unbacked.

I've gone in again on Angel Alexander at 40/1 with the offers. That's too much for a horse of his ability.

I've also taken Hey Jonesy 20+/1, Open Wide 22/1, Summerghand 25/1 (v1), Tinto 40+/1 and George Bowen 40/1.

I think I mentioned George Bowen before and I was immediately suspicious of his intentions last time out when he looked deliberately slow to trap and wasn't given a hard time. He'd looked on the way back the time before and that last outing might have got him back under the radar. But for that I think he'd be a 14/1 shot here. He is my main fancy for the race as he would pick up this lot and carry them on his best form. He's 2lbs better off with Summerghand having been unlucky in running at Pontefract the time before last. Last June he was trying to give Gulliver 8lbs and had earlier won a C2 hcap at Kempton off 102 for which he went up to 106, the mark off which in 2018 he was a close enough fifth in this. He's off 87 today (although it's for a reason).

Bottom line - I'll be happy if anyone finds the winner for the thread!

Edit - and now I see Euro is with me on Alexander Angel. More good news!
 
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I actually have another one aswell haha. I backed Venturous at 120/1 last night on the exchanges. Twice this season was unlucky in running and staying on strong in 5f handicaps before running a stinker at Ascot not unusual for him. 2nd in the Consolation race last year here and admittedly a few pounds higher now so a bit to find but at the price its rude not to. Think he's 50/1 generally with most bookies so ive included him in some ew doubles aswell. Could literally make a case for most the field though tbf.
 
Just reading through this, and I see a few of you guys are on the same selection as me in the 3.35 George Bowen. That four of us that have tipped up the same horse at 40/1. Surely a first for this thread! :blink:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copied and pasted from the Goodwood thread:

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Originally Posted by Outsider
I've done 5 in the stewards cup for different reasons and probably still wont get the winner.
KIMIFIVE got 25/1 I have always backed this but needs a lot of luck.young fallen claiming 3lb is a bonus.
OPEN WIDE 33/1 is another one I've followed and will need the gaps.last year it opened up just right and he flew into 2nd.
HEY JONESY you would think this course would be ideal and after the wokingham I have to back it again.
SUMMERGHAND just lost out in the wokingham but O'meara went and won a £6000 race with him so hes worse off now.didnt make sense to me but you still cant rule it out.
STONES OF DESTINY is well in with a lot of these

Well happy with that.
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Yes. Just looking back through to see who else it was that put it up.

Well chuffed for you too.

Tell me you did the forecast!!!!
 
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Well done mate don't know how O'Meara keeps doing it the horse ultra consistent but held no secrets from the handicapper, slap a bit of headgear on and bosh !

Well played mate 1st and 2nd can't do much better than that.

And D.O sorry hadn't seen you'd got it aswell.
 
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