The 2020 Longshot Thread

Ascot 3.05 - Noble Masquerade 20/1 - I had to go in a wee bit heavier as a saver to cover my outgoings on Al Qaqaa but that's punting. This one has been on my mind since I did the race midweek because it is arguably the least exposed having had only the three runs. I'm not sure it would have been given a mark after its first two so maybe needed its last run to qualify. Barney Curley made no attempt to hide the fact that he used Tom Queally to disguise a horse’s ability so his ride on Noble Masquerade last time might have served just that purpose (“slowly into stride, towards rear, midfield after 3f, ridden and steady headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went fourth towards finish”). The price is only available with one firm plus the exchanges but, hey, it's still a qualifier :). Connections like winners here and I smell a plot but still can't see past Al.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up is one of my Ebor longshots (the others are mentioned on the York thread but I haven't backed them yet).

Stargazer - I've taken it at 100/1 ew, 200+ (exchange) and 9/1 place-only (the advertised 12/1 doesn't exist with Sky) - why turn up in this race after a year and a half off? He was on a lovely upward curve when last seen, only coming off the bridle just over a furlong out and nudged along to beat the then well-handicapped Cosmelli at Newcastle. He'd have been a single-figure price for the Northumberland Plate and Kirby is a serious target man.

I suppose some big AW race further down the line might be the aim but I can't let him go at today's odds in such a big race.
Click to expand...

Stargazer reappears today at similar or better odds (125/1 and 300 on the exchange) so I have to have sickness insurance on him. I've still no idea what the real target is but he doesn't hold a Ces entry, which was my fear. We'll see.

Fingers crossed one of the longshots at least covers all the relevant bets.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At Haydock in the Sprint Cup I've taken Summerghand 33/1 to 4 places. I deliberately avoided him last week - on ratings he should have been odds-on - as I felt they couldn't afford a penalty on top of his 113 mark for the Ayr Gold Cup for winning race only a fifth of its value. Today is different. Today's race is twice the value of the Ayr race and he might only have one horse to beat (certainly on my own ratings). However, it’s maybe significant that Tudhope deserts Summerghand for the less obvious Queen Jo Jo so perhaps another run just to keep him ticking over for Ayr is the order of the day. Still, he’s a huge price for one of his ability so he might be ridden to pick up some place money and if the favourite doesn't run his race he won't need to worry about Ayr.
Click to expand...

I've also backed Brando (which I put up in the July Cup in which he was so unlucky) ew at 50/1 to four places.

It also looks like Hills have stopped offering me bet boosts. I was hoping for 55/1 with them but the offer didn't come up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The only one I've backed so far is Arctic Sound at 20/1 in the 3.45 at Kempton. He was only 9/2 for the Free Handicap last spring off 110 and although not running well that day came out to run a fine second in the German Guineas. His form was neither great nor consistent thereafter and into this season but after he bombed at Newmarket in June he was gelded and this is his first run since, off just 97. If his mind is now in a better place than his wotsits he could be a very big price but he isn't my main bet in the race.
Click to expand...

Now 40s generally :blink: Looks like my dough is as burnt as his gonads. Still, I've gone in again in case he gets punted back in nearer the off and I'd hate to miss out on such a big price.

There's probably a psychologist out there with a fancy name for my condition...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Stargazer reappears today at similar or better odds (125/1 and 300 on the exchange) so I have to have sickness insurance on him. I've still no idea what the real target is but he doesn't hold a Ces entry, which was my fear. We'll see.
Click to expand...

They're clearly up to something with Stargazer. I wish I knew what it is. He came there cantering up the straight only for the jockey to put the brakes on and again virtually pull him up.
 
I hope Euchen Glen followers backed him today, especially Outsider.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
They're clearly up to something with Stargazer. I wish I knew what it is. He came there cantering up the straight only for the jockey to put the brakes on and again virtually pull him up.
Click to expand...

I did it in running.was travelling well wasnt it.have patience.
 
I have to do TRADING POINT again tomorrow at 25/1 435g with a claimer on its 10lb better with stablemate Sir Jack.
Really needs to start better as slow away last time,
 
Don 3.45 - Aasheq 40/1 - entitled to win this on the pick of his form of last season. Superficially disappointing in two appearances this season but I'm hoping it's been with this in mind. He was in good form last spring off marks in the mid-90s and wasn't beaten far in the John Smith's. He's now 2lbs lower than for his last win. He's still vulnerable to a good improver but there's no way he should be 40/1 considering he was only 16/1 for that John Smith's race off 96.
 
No other individual longshots of interest today but I've done a couple of doubles which will qualify.

Last night I took 13/8 Latest Generation and 14/1 Power station in the two juvenile races. That double will pay 38/1.

Earlier this morning I took 3/1 Dakota Gold and 13/2 Derevo. That will pay 29/1. The places will cover the outlay.

I might as well steam in with trebles and an accie!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last night I took 13/8 Latest Generation and 14/1 Power station in the two juvenile races. That double will pay 38/1.
Click to expand...

LG had to fight a bit harder than I anticipated and didn't win like an odds-on shot but Power Station never stood a chance trying to come from the back off no pace. I knew the money was down before they'd travelled a furlong.
 
Jeff Smith has owned a number of superb horses but can also get some fun from lesser lights. In the 3.15 at Doncaster his Foxtrot Lady is ridden by Dettori and has failed to last out a mile in recent runs. Back to 7f can do well at around 18/1.
 
Last edited:
Tout Seul said:
Jeff Smith has owned a number of superb horses but can also get some fun from lesser lights. In the 3.15 at Doncaster his Foxtrot Lady is ridden by Dettori and has failed to last out a mile in recent runs. Back to 7f can do well at around 18/1.
Click to expand...

Brilliant tipping! Well done.
 
Tout Seul said:
Jeff Smith has owned a number of superb horses but can also get some fun from lesser lights. In the 3.15 at Doncaster his Foxtrot Lady is ridden by Dettori and has failed to last out a mile in recent runs. Back to 7f can do well at around 18/1.
Click to expand...

Missed this, didn't even watch the race. Great shout, Tout Seul.
 
Put it in a fun ew Yankee with tips from DO and Reet for today. So really want Aasheq to win the next. In reality needed what I’ve picked up today as falling out of love with betting recently with some chunky reverses.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Earlier this morning I took 3/1 Dakota Gold and 13/2 Derevo. That will pay 29/1. The places will cover the outlay.
Click to expand...

Fairly hammered the 9/4 SP with Derevo but I can't help thinking Kingscote was just a wee bit over-confident and couldn't respond when the winner came flying. If he'd kicked on 100 yards earlier he might not have been caught. It was a mental pace though.

Place return on the double covered the doubles and the longshot but not the big singles on Dakota G and Derevo.
 
I don't think I have a 20/1+ qualifier for tomorrow so before the prices collapse I'm suggesting an each-way double on Star Of Emaraaty (2.10, 12/1 best price) and Yazaman (2.40, 4/1). The best-price double (11s x 4s) works out at 59/1 about what on my figures should probably be no more than 10/1.
 
Last edited:
Three :blink: longshots from the one 13-runner race today...

Don 3.45 - This might be quite competitive but I'm not sure there is a standout candidate. There's no shortage of improvers in the race, as you'd expect from a 3yo handicap, but I don't see too much in the way of steepness of those curves. Pretty much anything could win.

Lexington Dash seems better at shorter but the evidence is limited and on breeding he should be fine at this trip. I was prepared to let him go thinking he'd be in the top five or six in the betting but he's 28/1 so I've changed my mind. I can't say I truly fancy him but he isn't a 28/1 shot if he stays.

The other two that appeal for reasons other than handicapping are Happy Bere and Haqeeqy.

Happy Bere strikes me seriously overpriced because he’s an unknown quantity trained by even more of an unknown quantity and the UK betting public don’t take to such types. He was placed in a G2 as a juvenile in France, earning RPR 105 in the process. Sometimes RPRs in foreign races understate the form so if the rating is simply accurate he has to have a shout. He’s worth a pop at 50/1 although why on earth a middle-eastern trainer would bring a horse here for our prize money I have no idea.

The other is Haqeeqy who disappointed badly last time but I’m prepared to write off one bad run. He looked very progressive before that and his price is probably an over-reaction to that one bad run. The worry is that he was 14s tops yesterday evening and is now 20/1 generally.

I make no apology for taking three against the field. They all seem over-priced to me and plenty of bookies are offering the extra place.

They might all end up unplaced and make me look even more of a tit than usual but it's just a bit of fun.

Think I should try the tricast?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Three :blink: longshots from the one 13-runner race today...

Don 3.45 - This might be quite competitive but I'm not sure there is a standout candidate. There's no shortage of improvers in the race, as you'd expect from a 3yo handicap, but I don't see too much in the way of steepness of those curves. Pretty much anything could win.

Lexington Dash seems better at shorter but the evidence is limited and on breeding he should be fine at this trip. I was prepared to let him go thinking he'd be in the top five or six in the betting but he's 28/1 so I've changed my mind. I can't say I truly fancy him but he isn't a 28/1 shot if he stays.

The other two that appeal for reasons other than handicapping are Happy Bere and Haqeeqy.

Happy Bere strikes me seriously overpriced because he’s an unknown quantity trained by even more of an unknown quantity and the UK betting public don’t take to such types. He was placed in a G2 as a juvenile in France, earning RPR 105 in the process. Sometimes RPRs in foreign races understate the form so if the rating is simply accurate he has to have a shout. He’s worth a pop at 50/1 although why on earth a middle-eastern trainer would bring a horse here for our prize money I have no idea.

The other is Haqeeqy who disappointed badly last time but I’m prepared to write off one bad run. He looked very progressive before that and his price is probably an over-reaction to that one bad run. The worry is that he was 14s tops yesterday evening and is now 20/1 generally.

I make no apology for taking three against the field. They all seem over-priced to me and plenty of bookies are offering the extra place.

They might all end up unplaced and make me look even more of a tit than usual but it's just a bit of fun.

Think I should try the tricast?
Click to expand...

Thank fuuck ...

The thing is, I ended up backing it three times as it drifted out from 14s!

All outgoings recouped with interest.

I can enjoy my dinner now and all local cats are safe.

Should get some place money for Lexington Dash too, I think.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top