The 2020 Longshot Thread

barjon said:
You certainly like to live dangerously, Desert
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I've raised the danger levels with a totally mental punt.

I've never tried this before and have no idea why I'm trying it now. Must be something to do with lockdown...

I'm going to try and win all three Ayr sprint handicaps in doubles and a treble, each-way, natch.

Bronze: George Bowen (a longshot for either the Wokingham or Stewards' Cup, maybe even both)
Silver: Admirality (bit of a guess as I haven't done the form but possibly well in)
Gold: Another Batt (I could have picked any of my longshots but went for the one with the highest relative rating on career figures)

Each-way doubles and an each-way trebles to sweetie money with Sky (6,6 & 7 places).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've raised the danger levels with a totally mental punt.

I've never tried this before and have no idea why I'm trying it now. Must be something to do with lockdown...

I'm going to try and win all three Ayr sprint handicaps in doubles and a treble, each-way, natch.

Bronze: George Bowen (a longshot for either the Wokingham or Stewards' Cup, maybe even both)
Silver: Admirality (bit of a guess as I haven't done the form but possibly well in)
Gold: Another Batt (I could have picked any of my longshots but went for the one with the highest relative rating on career figures)

Each-way doubles and an each-way trebles to sweetie money with Sky (6,6 & 7 places).
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Bon voyage, mon brave. I”m on Call me Ginger in the bronze, but I’ll sacrifice him for your loony, toony bet.
 
Outside of the Ayr Gold Cup I'm not seeing much scope for longshots. I've backed one at Newbury at 16/1 and it might drift to qualify, at which point I'll put it up.

But there is one at Newmarket that I genuinely did not expect to qualify and only just checked its price. In the 3.50, I'm struggling to get my head round why Lissitzky is 40/1.

When he won here early last season it was in the style of a serious improver but he seemed to lose the plot after that. I have him top-rated today on that run. Maybe his price reflects that this is his seasonal debut so presumably he's had problems but he needs a penalty to get into the Cesarewitch so will have to be close to peak fitness. I'd like to think he's been kept off track to preserve his mark and keep him fresh for a late-season campaign but we'll know more by about four o'clock.

Just in case I'm right about him, I've also taken 66/1 for the Cesarewitch.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As ever I have no problem with being mob-handed in a big handicap and I've gone in again on the Ayr Gold Cup.

Roger Varian mentioned this race earlier in the season as a potential target for Spanish City. I backed it in the Bunbury Cup and felt it wasn't put into the race and I've felt the same about its two subsequent races but it's 5lbs better off with Hey Jonesy on Wokingham form and would have been a lot better off with Summerghand which I still fancied.

He'll also have Ray Dawson's claim which he didn't at Ascot. If he was just prepping since then it wouldn't matter that the claimer rode him. I've had the horse as a potential bet here since the Bunbury Cup and I'm not sure the 25/1 will be available as the race approaches given how big a following Varian and his jockey have. Six places are also available at that price.
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Bastartin Naharr!
 
I was going to put this on the ante-post thread but it qualifies for this one so here goes.

In the Cambridgeshire, I've taken 20/1 Al Rufaa ew 5pl.

Its chance isn't entirely obvious on form in the sense that it seems more exposed than the typical Gosden contender and I'm not putting it up simply because it is a Gosden contender. It might not even run.

I'm putting it up because there has to be a strong chance that, having raced exclusively over seven furlongs in its career, it will improve a lot for stepping up two furlongs in trip, being by Kingman and with a dosage profile for 10f: DP = 1-3-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.31.

The dam was placed at 1m/1m1f in France and is a half-sister to 1m 2yo and 1m2f Group 1 winner Silasol out of US 1m stakes winner, and is a granddaughter of French 6f/US 8.5f winning half-sister to Arc winner Solemia.

I've been trying to check the ATR site for information about its stride pattern with regard to its likely optimum trip, to no avail.

Rab Havlin has ridden it in all its races so I expect him to be up on Saturday but if Frankie takes over it would hardly be a negative. (I've no idea what Frankie's quarantine situation is.)

The favourites are very much to be feared just as they were in the Ayr Gold Cup but Havlin said it ran flat last time at Haydock and that has maybe been a blessing as far as the price is concerned. Had it come into the race without that defeat it would probably be no bigger than 10/1.

Given Gosden's record in the race, you'd have to imagine that if this is the one it has to be respected.
 
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Just had another overview of the race.

It could buck a number of recent trends this year in that the current #35 on the list is rated just 84 off 7-12 and if any of the top weights come out that OR will go lower. Minimum weight is 8-0 so some will be out of the handicap but in recent years there probably hasn't been much more than a stone in the weight range of the runners.

The race could have a different complexion this year.
 
I've taken another pop at the race.

Dolphin Vista 150/1

It requires a huge leap of faith but there's ample compensation in the price.

He won this race for Martyn Meade in 2017 off 96 and went up to 102.

A year later he was raised to 110 for beating the 110-rated Morando in the Doonside Cup at Ayr.

On his first outing this season he got RPR 100 against Global Giant at Wolverhampton, followed by a poor run abroad after which he left Ralph Beckett for Jim Boyle.

He has since been beaten an aggregate of 184 lengths in five races and come down to 83. It's probably fair to say they probably never envisaged his making the cut for this but he only needs one to come out and will be a maximum of 3lbs out of the handicap if the top weights stand their ground, and that can be offset by a decent apprentice.

There's every chance he won't run and if he does there's every chance he'll be beaten another 55 lengths but maybe the return to the scene of his win three years ago will flick a switch in his circuitry.

I see he's blue with other bookies and 66/1 tops. Maybe they're just temporarily readjusting the book while the market settles after today's declarations and they'll all be mega odds by Saturday.

But what if it's money that's caused the blue hue?

It's a small price to pay to find out.
 
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I’ve had a punt on Demi Plie @ 25/1 in the Kerry Nash tomorrow (List 4:30).

She won’t be my main bet and is currently first reserve so needs one to come out (money back if not) but she’s right at the foot of the weights and her very capable jockey - who gets on well with her - takes another 5lb off.

She twice ran well at this meeting last year, the first a placed effort over hurdles before winning over fences a few days later (over this trip).

Only 6lb higher than when winning at Fairyhouse towards the end of last year, admittedly in a mares only race that would be a few rungs below the level of this, her two runs so far this year have the look of one who’s been laid out.

If she gets in I’d expect her to be shorter than 25/1 running in the McManus colours.
 
Dubai Mirage 25/1 (8 places with Skybet).
Drawn right up against the nearside rail, where I think they'll be some real honest pace; Data Protection and Majestic Dawn forcing it.
Stephano is out jogging now to get down to the 8.01, doesn't have a lot to find (Ran well at Ascot from the unfavoured side earlier in the season, so has excuses) and very much looks like a
Saeed bin Suroor plot.
 
Maxbet said:
Dubai Mirage 25/1 (8 places with Skybet).
Drawn right up against the nearside rail, where I think they'll be some real honest pace; Data Protection and Majestic Dawn forcing it.
Stephano is out jogging now to get down to the 8.01, doesn't have a lot to find (Ran well at Ascot from the unfavoured side earlier in the season, so has excuses) and very much looks like a
Saeed bin Suroor plot.
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On my radar too.

Along with half the field, I should add :lol:

Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

I’ll probably also back Dubai Mirage as the sole Godolphin runner, on a curve and the claimer (1-1 for the trainer) has high percentage rates for some shrewd trainers, including 3-3 for Rae Guest. I would have hoped for better than 25/1 though.
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Desert Orchid said:
I’ll probably also back Dubai Mirage as the sole Godolphin runner, on a curve and the claimer (1-1 for the trainer) has high percentage rates for some shrewd trainers, including 3-3 for Rae Guest. I would have hoped for better than 25/1 though.:
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22/1 with Skybet now, someone else thinks there's value there!
 
Another worth backing - imo - for the Cambridgeshire is You're Hired at 100/1 (or shorter for more places) to six places.

He might have been put away since impressing here shortly after racing resumed. It’s possible he was the only fit horse on the day but he was two lengths in front with two to run and an eased down 14 lengths in front at the line. He’s only 7lbs higher now and his jockey’s claim will reduce it. I was prepared to back him at 50/1 so the longer odds are a bonus.
 
My final longshot for the race is my old pal Afaak. I took 40/1 to eight places but 50s are there to fewer.

I backed him when he won the Hunt Cup first time up last year and it's possible that race got to him as he hasn't been in the same form since. However, he wasn't too far off it in the Golden Mile despite being caught pretty wide and has since got a good look at Tempus's arse twice. I would have thought Sheikh Hamdan would have had stronger candidates but he relies just on Montatham (first colours, Crowley) and Afaak and he doesn't throw any old animal at these races and neither does the trainer. The prices are an insult to a good horse.

That's now eight I've backed so far in the race, seven of which are at (at the time of backing) 20/1-100/1. In 2017 first three were 50s, 100s and 50s and there's often real longshots in the placings.

2018: 3rd, 4th & 8th
2017: 1st. 2nd, 3rd, 6th & 8th
2016: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th & 8th, as well as 9th, 10th and 11th

So I would argue there's method in my madness.

Now all I need to do is work out how much I need to put on Tempus to cover them all :lol:
 
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Haydock 2.05 - Nicholas T 20/1 - it doesn't strike me as too hot a race and Nicholas T is 2lbs lower than when winning first time up this season and 6lbs lower than when in the mix for the minor placings in the John Smith's. The trip is a slight worry but it might turn into a stamina test.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 2.05 - Nicholas T 20/1 - it doesn't strike me as too hot a race and Nicholas T is 2lbs lower than when winning first time up this season and 6lbs lower than when in the mix for the minor placings in the John Smith's. The trip is a slight worry but it might turn into a stamina test.
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Ridden as though today wasn't the day but would still have been placed with a clear run. Blocked at least twice after the jockey made no attempt to close up when he had the chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's now eight I've backed so far in the race, seven of which are at (at the time of backing) 20/1-100/1. In 2017 first three were 50s, 100s and 50s and there's often real longshots in the placings.

2018: 3rd, 4th & 8th
2017: 1st. 2nd, 3rd, 6th & 8th
2016: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th & 8th, as well as 9th, 10th and 11th

So I would argue there's method in my madness.

Now all I need to do is work out how much I need to put on Tempus to cover them all :lol:
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Third (14/1 taken), fourth (100/1), fifth (28/1), sixth (5/1) and eighth (33/1) but Tempus was win-only, obviously.

The place returns will put me comfortably in front on the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Stargazer reappears today at similar or better odds (125/1 and 300 on the exchange) so I have to have sickness insurance on him. I've still no idea what the real target is but he doesn't hold a Ces entry, which was my fear. We'll see.

Fingers crossed one of the longshots at least covers all the relevant bets.
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Anyone chance him today? I didn’t :(
 
I looked at the race but with Goshen in there at odds-on and an easy-looking task I decided to wait for easier opportunities.

As nickf88 says, I do hope somebody took a punt.
 
Been away for a few weeks. Could access the forum but not post anything so follow the tips but can't thank anyone afterwards when they come in. Anyways, just to say I did have my usual 3 pence ew on Stargazer but it was pure luck in that I made a point of listening to the race on racing radio because of Goshen, spotted Stargazer just before the off and managed to put my pennies on. The Kirbys had had a 250/1 third the other day as well so my loyalty to the stable was rewarded [I've just got hold of a Lady Buttons scarf]. Had a disaster a couple of weeks ago when I had another last minute bet on an Irish race. Blue across the board on oddschecker; came 4th at 40/1 but the race had cut up and they only paid first 3. In my panic I accidentally had a much bigger bet than usual and all but wiped all the money out of my account so I've been chasing winners/losers for ages trying to claw it back. Also Craig Forsyth on W Hill racing tipped the winner of the Cambridgeshire and I backed that, so it was a good couple of days. Would have been sick as a pig if I'd missed Stargazer, though. I know they're worried about his legs every time he runs so need to checkout if he's ok. Following Saphie Osbornes rides at the moment but missed her 18/1 winner on Saturday.
 
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