The 2020 Longshot Thread

Just one today so far.

Don 2.10 - Shabaaby 25/1 or 22/1 to 4 pl - I mentioned three against the field elsewhere but haven't backed them as I missed the good prices so for the sake of an interest I've had a nibble at this one. I have him second-top on my figures but with no obvious progression in his profile. Aged five but with only 11 career starts and three wins, he might still be unexposed. He won on his only 4yo start earning RPR 109 in a non-handicap. He was off for over a year when given a fairly easy time of it at Newcastle and I expected him to go forward from there but he's disappointed the last twice and now they try blinkers, which the trainer suggested would happen after his last run. The risks are obvious but young Fallon is 1-3 for the trainer this season who was operating at 29% in August. He's in single-figures this month but that might change. (Or it might not.) And it wouldn't be the first time a Hamdan second string has done the biz. It could be fun finding out.
 
Shabaaby lost all chance at the start. It happens.

Just one at the moment for tomorrow.

In the Portland, I've taken 40/1 ew 5pl Ornate. I put it up as a big outsider earlier in the week before it ran against Battaash at Goodwood and that latter run suggested it would have won if it had shown that level of form. I'm not sure the Battaash form can be taken at face value but is it 40/1 that it can? If it can he'll be very hard to beat although the extra half-furlong might be an issue but his joint-highest career RPR is at 6f and two of his top four career RPRs are at 6f and he was in front at this trip in the 2019 Stewards' Cup. If he can secure a clear lead by the last half-furlong he might be able to hold on. The next-best price with any other bookie is 25/1 and its showing 30 on the exchange. I might go in again in the morning once the BOGs kick in, just in case it's a big drifter.
 
Ornate has been scratched. I suspect another longshot I came up with this morning will be scratched too as he tends to race with give but if he does run I'll stick with him just in case he doesn't mind faster ground after all. I'll put it up once the guarantees kick in.
 
The other day I was happy to dismiss Deputise (Portland) as a bit of a growler but I see he's blue in a few places this morning so maybe it has been trained for the race all season. He's very well handicapped on the best of his form having started this season on 97 and was on 103 last year but gets in here off 87. The handicapper has now separated his turf and AW marks hence his rating today but surely he trains on turf so I'm prepared at least to give him this chance to prove one way or another if he's just an all-weather horse. I've taken 80/1 ​to very small stakes.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The other day I was happy to dismiss Deputise (Portland) as a bit of a growler but I see he's blue in a few places this morning so maybe it has been trained for the race all season. He's very well handicapped on the best of his form having started this season on 97 and was on 103 last year but gets in here off 87. The handicapper has now separated his turf and AW marks hence his rating today but surely he trains on turf so I'm prepared at least to give him this chance to prove one way or another if he's just an all-weather horse. I've taken 80/1 ​to very small stakes.
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:lol::lol:

No sooner had I posted that than Kevin Blake goes and tips it on the Morning Show!

Think he's got this thread live on his smartphone? :lol:

The price might collapse now!
 
The St Leger for once doesn't grab me. It's a race I always look forward to but I'm struggling to come up with a selection. I picked out Galileo Chrome earlier in the week as a possible upset but his price has collapsed. I really can't split the market principals so I decided fvck it and look for a longshot in the hope of getting a wee shudder.

I've backed Mythical at 100/1. It obviously isn't here to set the pace so why would an outfit like Coolmore even run it? They're on record as holding it in high regard and maybe they decided last season that he needed time to develop and targeted this race all along.

All ifs, buts and maybes, obviously, but I'm willing to pay to find out.

I feel an each-way double with Deputise coming on....
 
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One that now qualifies for the thread is Urban Icon 22/1 in the 3.00 Don. I don’t like the look of the race. Too many of them are inconsistent or just don’t look up to it but there have been some iffy results in races like this all week. With all eight standing their ground he's an each-way pop as his performance under top weight in the Golden Mile has been franked a number of times. On my figures it makes him better than a handicapper and as good as any of this field.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The other day I was happy to dismiss Deputise (Portland) as a bit of a growler
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I had Stone Of Destiny top on this year's form but had a squiggle next to it so let it go. The way it won from a proper job it might be up to defying a penalty at Ayr, assuming it's on the agenda.
 
Outsider said:
I will be backing about 4 in the stewards cup.some with my heart and one with my head.
The one that seems to stand out for me is stones of destiny 22/1 boosted to almost 25/1 with a,hill
Has been running well and is well in with others in the race from last year and well in on it's running against hey jonesy.
Reared up leaving the stalls latest.
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Oh why didnt I back it today.
 
550 Leo CYRUS DALLIN 25/1 5 places finished 4th over c/d and is 2lb lower.been running over a mile.drop back in trip should suit.
 
COLFER ME 550 curragh 40/1 ran 2nd in the irish lincoln,finished well.winner went up 7lb and the 3rd as gone up 9lb and cover me has dropped 7lb after a few bad runs.needs the ground to keep drying up.
 
Outsider said:
COLFER ME 550 curragh 40/1 ran 2nd in the irish lincoln,finished well.winner went up 7lb and the 3rd as gone up 9lb and cover me has dropped 7lb after a few bad runs.needs the ground to keep drying up.
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My kind of reasoning, Outsider. I've followed you in.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 2.15 Bernardo O'Reilly 66/1 - won off this mark the last time he was on it so no way he should be this price.
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Just logging up last week's form and noticed this wee bastert had gone and won at 22/1 at Donny (his next start?) and I never even knew it was running.

Hope somebody somewhere remembered and got a turn out of it!
 
I've taken another pop at the Ayr Gold Cup.

When Marb (I think it was him) first mentioned the race I said I'd look at the likes of Bielsa (because he'd been punted into something like 5/1 for the Wokingham) and/or Koropick (off for a while and dropped a good bit as a kind of allowance).

Bielsa is still on my radar but doesn't qualify for the thread and I haven't backed it yet but I'm putting my money where my mouth is with Koropick at 100/1.

He hasn't raced for three years but in that season he was second to Battaash in the Scurry and then went up to 109 for winning the Chipchase. The following month he was beaten less than three lengths behind Washington DC in a G3 at the Curragh, less than a length behind Mr Lupton (currently 12/1 tops on 103). He gets in here off 98.

He then went to stud but presumably has been in about as much demand as me as he came back into training this season and was gelded fairly recently. I notice he has no progeny so maybe he's just a jaffa.

Anyway, he's back in training for new connections and has no other entries but he does have a jockey booked (Royston Ffrench) for Saturday. That's no guarantee that he'll run but he's 33/1 tops everywhere else (that counts as a bookie) and only 58 on the exchange. They might all be going 100/1 by Saturday or maybe Hills will decide they've been too generous at this point. I do suspect they'll pull him and I'll lose my money but these are the chances we take.

It would certainly be a story if he were to come out and win after three years off but we know how much ITV Racing likes a story.
 
As ever I have no problem with being mob-handed in a big handicap and I've gone in again on the Ayr Gold Cup.

Roger Varian mentioned this race earlier in the season as a potential target for Spanish City. I backed it in the Bunbury Cup and felt it wasn't put into the race and I've felt the same about its two subsequent races but it's 5lbs better off with Hey Jonesy on Wokingham form and would have been a lot better off with Summerghand which I still fancied.

He'll also have Ray Dawson's claim which he didn't at Ascot. If he was just prepping since then it wouldn't matter that the claimer rode him. I've had the horse as a potential bet here since the Bunbury Cup and I'm not sure the 25/1 will be available as the race approaches given how big a following Varian and his jockey have. Six places are also available at that price.
 
GEORGE BOWEN 20/1 must have a shout in the bronze cup.
GOLDEN APOLLO 20/1 has a chance to win the silver again.
ARECIBO 14/1 for gold

Whether or not I get the winner,I love these big sprint hcaps.
 
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