The 2020 Longshot Thread

moehat said:
Been away for a few weeks. Could access the forum but not post anything so follow the tips but can't thank anyone afterwards when they come in. Anyways, just to say I did have my usual 3 pence ew on Stargazer but it was pure luck in that I made a point of listening to the race on racing radio because of Goshen, spotted Stargazer just before the off and managed to put my pennies on. The Kirbys had had a 250/1 third the other day as well so my loyalty to the stable was rewarded [I've just got hold of a Lady Buttons scarf]. Had a disaster a couple of weeks ago when I had another last minute bet on an Irish race. Blue across the board on oddschecker; came 4th at 40/1 but the race had cut up and they only paid first 3. In my panic I accidentally had a much bigger bet than usual and all but wiped all the money out of my account so I've been chasing winners/losers for ages trying to claw it back. Also Craig Forsyth on W Hill racing tipped the winner of the Cambridgeshire and I backed that, so it was a good couple of days. Would have been sick as a pig if I'd missed Stargazer, though. I know they're worried about his legs every time he runs so need to checkout if he's ok. Following Saphie Osbornes rides at the moment but missed her 18/1 winner on Saturday.
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Welcome back, was wondering where you'd got to!!
 
Here’s one for the thread Away He Goes see post #57 on the Noted in Running thread. Runs Ascot 2:30 and early price 80/1 !!
 
The amount of rain today/tonight could make it very soft tomorrow which might not suit AWG but I'm on.
 
Longchamp 1.35 Subway Dancer 80/1 - a big price because he's done nothing this season but was a big-price winner over 11f here last October in heavy ground and would probably win this if he can get back to the same level today.
 
1.40 Nwm - Country Carnival now qualifies at 20/1. Was always going to be my ew pop against the field so I'm on.
 
Longchamp 1:50

La Jonction (E/W) is open to more serious improvement having only run twice, those two wins coming on right handed tracks which she'll encounter again tomorrow. Her sire Kingman handled testing conditions extremely well and La Jonction's mother also won on very soft, so conditions may actually turn out to be perfect. La Jonction beat a consistent type of horse called Miss Louna the last day, who was herself then in a blanket finish at Lyon when fourth behind Darkness.

On this form line with Miss Louna La Jonction is likely already a group 3 or group 2 horse, especially as that was only her second run. I'll confess I've never heard of the trainer, though I see that connections landed a decent priced winner at the track today so the stable certainly are in form. There's lots of nice fillies in the race, but at the respective odds, based on what they've done, I had to argue the case for this horse.
 
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I can imagine Barjon googling the number for the white coat people but here goes anyway...

In the Arc, I've taken 150/1 (4pl) Royal Julius.

The ground could be the heaviest it's ever been at Longchamp and could turn the race into a complete joke so maybe literally anything could win. He has form in heavy and stays the trip. There are doubts about several others in the race regarding the ground so I'm really backing him to beat more horses than he is beaten by at what seems a price that doesn't allow for the conditions.

It will at least give me an interest while I shout on Enable!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I can imagine Barjon googling the number for the white coat people but here goes anyway...

In the Arc, I've taken 150/1 (4pl) Royal Julius.

The ground could be the heaviest it's ever been at Longchamp and could turn the race into a complete joke so maybe literally anything could win. He has form in heavy and stays the trip. There are doubts about several others in the race regarding the ground so I'm really backing him to beat more horses than he is beaten by at what seems a price that doesn't allow for the conditions.

It will at least give me an interest while I shout on Enable!
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I found the number - expect a knock on the door very soon :lol:
 
Is it doing anyone elses head in, seeing all these huge priced horses winning and placing? I started betting, post lockdown, on the Irish races that had huge fields paying 4 places and have managed to bet a few of them but there are so many that get away. I do tend to watch out for last minute steamers on oddschecker and nabbed one at Kelso [I think it was Kelso] yesterday with W Hill paying out extra places on a lot of races. It's the frustration of knowing 'they're out there' and wanting to find them. I know this page is about finding these horses by studying the form and spotting them but we live in strange times and nothing seems to be as it should be these days! At least my sad little betting account, which was down to £3 now has £12 in it!
 
Copied from the A/P thread:

I'm 95% through the Ces form and have taken 20/1 Lightly Squeeze.

He was still in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair, a performance that suggests he might even be better handicapped than Leoncavallo. He'll be 4lbs out of the handicap but the chances are Harry Fry will engage a top claimer and only needs one to drop out (and I can't see Gavin Cromwell running all of his).

This is another I can see halving in price.

Edit - Hayley Turner booked.
 
moehat said:
Is it doing anyone elses head in, seeing all these huge priced horses winning and placing? I started betting, post lockdown, on the Irish races that had huge fields paying 4 places and have managed to bet a few of them but there are so many that get away. I do tend to watch out for last minute steamers on oddschecker and nabbed one at Kelso [I think it was Kelso] yesterday with W Hill paying out extra places on a lot of races. It's the frustration of knowing 'they're out there' and wanting to find them. I know this page is about finding these horses by studying the form and spotting them but we live in strange times and nothing seems to be as it should be these days! At least my sad little betting account, which was down to £3 now has £12 in it!
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I find myself doing likewise if I'm bored, looking to stick a small bet each-way at enhanced odds or places. Weaver isn't bad at putting them up when they're down at the start. He gave Bad Rabbit at the weekend at 50/1, collared close home, sp 33/1.

I often sort the card in RPR order and see if anything in the top few ratings is/are seriously overpriced. The 12/1 Redcar winner the other day on ITV was one. I got 14/1. (Mutasomething. Made all.)

They crop up a lot more often than you might imagine.
 
Always a funny time of year. Abrupt changes in going means some horses suddenly relish it and pop up at long odds when they’ve shown diddly squit all year. Also horses are changing their coats and I often think while going through the process go a bit flat. Worth looking at them at the start. If their coat looks dull, leave them alone.
 
York 2.40 Toronto 33/1, 4pl (Sky) - in the top three on my ratings and proven in very soft ground. Not my main bet in the race but certainly worth a pop at the price.
 
Again, not my main bet in the race but Another Touch carries some sickness insurance (25/1, 6pl) in the 2.05 at York. I've put him up before and he's top rated on his best old form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ridden as though today wasn't the day but would still have been placed with a clear run. Blocked at least twice after the jockey made no attempt to close up when he had the chance.
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Nicholas T reappears today in the 2.35 York. I'm not convinced it's a strong race and the improving 3yos can be fancied but 40/1 is too big if connections decide Nicholas T is going to run his race. He has the clear winning of it on his best form. That last run was over a mile but five of his top six RPRs have come at this longer trip.
 
I have a few longshots in the Cesarewitch which I'll put up as and when I manage to get on at the best odds/place terms.

First up for now is Vis A Vis 33/1 to 6 places. He's 7lbs lower than when beaten less than five lengths in the 2018 race so in theory he has the winning of a normal renewal.
 
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Next two:

I'm joining Outsider on Mukha Magic at 100/1 which I see has gone blue in a couple of places. I was hoping for 150/1 at some time but never saw it. Ran very well on very unfavourable terms in the Queen Alexandra which might just flatter him but at the price I don't mind paying to find out. I think is run the other day was as much a prep for this as an attempt at winning then, given that it was over just 12f. That would probably be as much as it would do in a gallop and not winning means he misses the penalty.

The other is Blue Laureate also at 100/1. He ran Moon King to a head first time up this season and improved on that [on ratings] at Newbury in a better race behind stablemate Reshoun. In between he had banged his head in the stalls when just 8/1 for the Ascot Stakes. He met trouble in running in the Goodwood Stakes before bombing at York but by then they'd probably decided to aim him at this. On my figures he should be shorter than 20/1.
 
In the 3.10 at York I'm saving on two longshots:

Another Batt 33/1, 7pl - this was one of my Ayr Gold Cup bets but he never showed. Robbie Downey takes over again today, the last jockey to win on him.

Hey Honesy 28/1, 7pl - did us a turn in the Wokingham and would win this on his best form too. He's maybe a bit of a dodgepot but he'll probably win more often than once in 29 attempts.
 
Chepstow 4.32, Marracudja 33/1, 4pl - much cud was chewed on the forum over this horse last season. If his form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose – can be taken at face value then he should win. The heavy ground that day, though, might make the form unreliable but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back yet he's still on just 149. The Bay Birch is 8lbs lower than when winning this race last year and has had a prep so it's no surprise it's favourite but on my figures can't beat Marracudja IF that race can be taken at face value. At the price I can pay to find out.
 
Final longshot in the Ces:

Takarengo 66/1 - stamina not certain but had a fair field strung out like 4-mile chasers in October last year in a 12f race (sft). Only five lengths behind Princess Zoe at Galway (2m1f sft) and just a couple of lengths behind Great White Shark in the same race. Probably shouldn't be anywhere near the price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Chepstow 4.32, Marracudja 33/1, 4pl - much cud was chewed on the forum over this horse last season. If his form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose – can be taken at face value then he should win. The heavy ground that day, though, might make the form unreliable but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back yet he's still on just 149. The Bay Birch is 8lbs lower than when winning this race last year and has had a prep so it's no surprise it's favourite but on my figures can't beat Marracudja IF that race can be taken at face value. At the price I can pay to find out.
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In the same race I give Pink eyed Pedro an each way chance at 20/1 (4 places with SkyBet)


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Certainly wouldn't put you off, viking. It's near the top of my figures on its best form of last year.

One I didn't think would qualify for the thread but does is Doubly Clever in the Silver Trophy. It's the only one on my figures with a definite +p next to its figure. It does have something to find but who knows how much more it has improved in the nine weeks it's been off given that it improved 7lb in the fortnight between its last two races. At 20/1 (40 on the exchange) I can pay to find out.
 
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