The 2020 Longshot Thread

0-2 and time running out.

I lost the stream with 30 mins to go but the radio guys aren't very complimentary about how Celtic are playing.

Surely Lennon will be sacked tonight.
 
Thanks DO. Some boy with that shout.

I did a 1000/1 double as well, Ross County and Falkirk. Don’t follow Scottish footy, but Chorley beat Peterborough yesterday so anything can happen.
 
22/1 was always miles too big a price given Celtic's current form.

The board can count themselves very lucky there are no crowds.

No doubt there will be later on outside the ground!
 
Great shout DO, too disgusted to go into it, but at least someone made a few quid from it. I always struggle with the head over heart approach.
 
Quality shout, DO.

Please tell your team to get their fu*cking sh*it together before they face the Jumbos in the SC final.
 
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Next permanent Celtic manager - Mauricio Pochettino 25/1

Cards on the table, I don't really think it will happen but if they really have been talking to him he maybe shouldn't be that price. Lots of the names in the lists are total non-starters, including a good number of those at shorter prices. It's probably really only a three- or four-runner race.

Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have been approached [I'm hearing]. O'Neill is still regarded as sainted among the Hoops' support for taking us to Seville but his star waned when the board didn't keep humouring him with big-money signings and he's smart enough to know players' attention span towards managers is only two or three seasons, as Lennon is finding out.

Keane thought he'd end his playing career with a sinecure at Celtic but he bombed on and off the field. He and O'Neill haven't exactly set world football alight with Eire.

Eddie Howe has also been approached and hasn't declined the advances. He did a great job at Bournemouth but doesn't have experience of managing in Europe. I heard last week that Brendan Rodgers's assistant Chris Davies was an apostle of Eddie Howe's approach. That would speak in Howe's favour if true.

I also heard Damien Duff was extremely popular with the players as first-team coach and it's probably no coincidence that they put the league to bed last season after his arrival and that they have collapsed since he left. However, he left the job for family reasons and I can't see that changing.

Gordon Strachan is currently 6/4 fav. I can see him stepping into the breach until a permanent manager is appointed but he's a wily wee cookie and is just as likely to think 'been there, done that, got the sack'.

Pochettino is out of work so might be available on a cut-price deal as he'll want to re-establish himself as a successful manager Rodgers-style. If he is one of the interested parties who asked for 'digital packages' of the club's matches this season he shouldn't be 25/1 but it doesn't mean he'll take it. The package might just put him off!

Roberto Martinez rates Shaun Maloney the best coach he's worked with but I don't see Maloney as managerial material.

Steve Clarke would be the man I'd pursue if I were Dermot Desmond. He's a fan and knows the score up here but he's on record as saying he hates the whole Celtic-Ibrox stuff. He's done well with Scotland, getting bang-average players to over-perform, which is what good managers do. I can't see him agreeing to anything to do with us but I'd at least try and talk him into it.

Knowing the Celtic board, they'll probably go for somebody like Jack Ross who is doing a good job at Hibs.
 
There's a fair amount of rain forecast for later in the week. FF another who could fcuk up the Pumpkin pair at least. Do not get the fuss with Grenateen at all.
 
Euronymous said:
There's a fair amount of rain forecast for later in the week. FF another who could fcuk up the Pumpkin pair at least. Do not get the fuss with Grenateen at all.
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Grenateen would be off the bridle going to the start.

Think Paul Kealy put him up as a dark horse for the Champion Chase and his price collapsed. Subsequently people latch on pretending they’ve unearthed something themself.
 
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Double J said:
Grenateen would be off the bridle going to the start.

Think Paul Kealy put him up as a dark horse for the Champion Chase and his price collapsed. Subsequently people latch on pretending they’ve unearthed something themself.
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Nah, in the parade ring.
 
Euronymous said:
There's a fair amount of rain forecast for later in the week. FF another who could fcuk up the Pumpkin pair at least. Do not get the fuss with Grenateen at all.
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Couldn’t believe it when I saw he was second-fave. For what? Scrambling home in a Haldon, with the Champion Chaser in the line-up? Makes absolutely no sense to me (and that’s without even consider the Rouge).
 
From the RP site today, under their 'horses to take out of the weekend' item:

Ardlethen
6th, Newbury, Saturday
It is credit to Ardlethen's natural ability that he was able to finish sixth in the Ladbrokes Trophy despite plenty going against him.
He was quite slow getting into the race – even for a horse who prefers being held up – and then the fall of Vinndication came just in front of him when he was beginning to get into a rhythm. He would not have won this race, however, as I am not totally convinced he stayed the trip.
The way he travelled and the manner in which he jumps suggest he is more than capable of winning a big pot. Perhaps a sharper three miles would be more preferable and, if he gets soft ground, the Silver Cup could be an interesting target.
James Stevens


This might make sense in the light of Skelton's comments about going for "a valuable handicap at Ascot and working back from there". As I noted already, it was ridden negatively early and looked not to stay.

Ardlethen has been dropped 1lb for that performance.




 
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In tomorrow's Tingle Creek I've taken 28/1 Brewin'upastorm.

I reckon he would have been at least second in the Arkle and he doesn’t have Tricky Dicky to deal with now. He got a nice jog round in rear behind Imperial Aura at Carlisle, presumably to bring him on for this, and he's entitled to be better again into his second season chasing. He needs two of the front three to under-perform but the ground might do for Rouge Vif and we can't be sure if the real Altior will turn up.
 
I’m going to put up Smooth Stepper 25/1 up as an each way in the Grand Sefton. The top three in the market are all priced about right, and it’s hard to pick holes in them.

Le Breuil gets in off a nice mark and I admit to having backed him too earlier at antepost prices, but there remains a doubt about him getting home and it’ll be a proper test tiday.

The case for Walk In The Mill is obvious as a dual winner, but a career high mark makes him vulnerable in testing ground.

Kimberlite Candy I like a lot, but is a leading National contender JP horse going to blow his very attractive mark by winning well today.

There are plenty of others with chances too, but Smooth Stepper is the one that’s massively overpriced. 25/1 for a horse that’ll love conditions, and relishes extended staying trips is much too big.
 
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I should declare I also have Smooth Stepper in an each way double with Sametagal who doesn’t qualify for this thread, but is overpriced stepped back to a suitable trip with perfect conditions.

I would have put Flying Angel up at 20/1 for Sametagal’s race, but he’s been backed in to 12/1 this morning so he doesn’t qualify now.
 
Aintree 3.15 Federici 33/1 - seems still to retain plenty of ability, good form here and is handicapped to win if on a going day, which the booking of Hughes might point to and the stable is in good form. Eco Maruco's thoughts re Flying Angel.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Aintree 3.15 Federici 33/1 - seems still to retain plenty of ability, good form here and is handicapped to win if on a going day, which the booking of Hughes might point to and the stable is in good form. Eco Maruco's thoughts re Flying Angel.
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Actually I really like that Federici play Maurice. We know he like the National fences, and he’s been dropped back to two and half a few times before and done the business. He’s never quite seen it out when he’s run in the National and the Beecher, so the Sefton could very well bring out the best in him. I’ve backed him with Skybet at 28/1 who are offering 6 places.
 
Maruco said:
I’m going to put up Smooth Stepper 25/1 up as an each way in the Grand Sefton. The top three in the market are all priced about right, and it’s hard to pick holes in them.

Le Breuil gets in off a nice mark and I admit to having backed him too earlier at antepost prices, but there remains a doubt about him getting home and it’ll be a proper test tiday.

The case for Walk In The Mill is obvious as a dual winner, but a career high mark makes him vulnerable in testing ground.

Kimberlite Candy I like a lot, but is a leading National contender JP horse going to blow his very attractive mark by winning well today.

There are plenty of others with chances too, but Smooth Stepper is the one that’s massively overpriced. 25/1 for a horse that’ll love conditions, and relishes extended staying trips is much too big.
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The trainer Alex Hales sounded pretty upbeat when I read his quote yesterday, saying something along the lines of 'I always thought this race would suit him and he'll love the ground. He can still be competitive off current mark'.

Lets hope Smooth Stepper runs to his best and see how the others perform.
 
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