The 2020 Longshot Thread

There’s a really fascinating beginners chase 2.40 at Punchestown in which I’ve backed Priests Leap at 20/1. He’s 16’s now. Will probably be won by one of the big stables as usual but I thought it might throw up a surprise and it seemed to be well backed on the exchanges last night.
 
I don’t know if he’s an intended runner, but I’m very-much drawn to Henderson’s Champagne Mystery (general 25/1) for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on Saturday.

Track form is a slight worry (nowhere in the novice handicap at the Festival), but he absolutely hacked-up FTO last season, and on a line through Greanateen, he could be handsomely handicapped off just 139.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don’t know if he’s an intended runner, but I’m very-much drawn to Henderson’s Champagne Mystery (general 25/1) for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on Saturday.

Track form is a slight worry (nowhere in the novice handicap at the Festival), but he absolutely hacked-up FTO last season, and on a line through Greanateen, he could be handsomely handicapped off just 139.
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Sure that’s the Hemmings horse that absolutely pissed up at Aintree. Went into the tracker after that performance but did nothing of note since.

Performs as well as he did then, there’ll be worse 25/1 shots than that.
 
In Saturday's Caspian Caviar (the Massey-Ferguson to me) I've taken 50/1 Ibis Du Rheu.

This is partly a hunch-punt, partly not wishing to miss the boat on one that I have high up my ratings table on old form.

I was holding off, hoping for 100/1 by the weekend but it looks like that ain't gonna happen as it has gone as blue as my gonads in Covid vaccine freezer. One bookie cut it from 50s to 25s as I was trying to back it.

It's an ex-Nicholls horse who came into chasing as a 147 hurdler in season '16-'17 after winning the Martin Pipe. It ended the season only 12/1 for UTPT's first Ultima. He then didn't show much in a few runs after nearly a year off but came back the following season to win a novice chase, taking him back up to 147 but lost his form again and was sold out of Nicholls's yard early last season but didn't run.

Now with Richard Hobson, he reappears off 135 and if the exchange odds are any guide this race is going to cut up quite a bit and there might be a doubt about four places being on offer by Saturday.

At the price, it's a hunch I'm happy to play.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In Saturday's Caspian Caviar cup, I've taken 50/1 about Ibis Du Rheu.
This is partly a hunch-punt, partly not wishing to miss the boat on one that I have high up my ratings table on old form. I was holding off, hoping for 100/1 by the weekend but it looks like that ain't gonna happen as it has gone as blue as my gonads in Covid vaccine freezer. One bookie cut it from 50s to 25s as I was trying to back it
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Still plenty of 50/1 about DO
I'd be all over it like a rash if it were one of your lowest rated:lol:

Tell me Cepage is in your bottom 3...
 
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Exciting day at Hexham (for me, anyway). Adam Nicol saddles his first horse as a trainer, Velkera 40/1. Purple Harry, who Adam won on at Kelso a few years ago (pillar to post) is being ridden by Brian Hughes 50/1. And Little Mo because how can I not back it. Only 16/1. Maybe I should do an accumulator on them even though the first two don’t stand a chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Of course it's at the bottom of the table. I don't have a current rating for it.

But feel free to laugh yourself exhausted with cheap digs.
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Didn't mean to upset you Do. Just a light-hearted reference to your Ladbroke Trophy Ratings...We all know how this game can make a fool of you...I quite like the snippets of form Ibis Du Rheu has shown, particularly over the CD, but he's been campaigned over further of late and it doesn't appear to be for reducing his handicap purpose. Nicholl's doesn't give many away that have good race wins left in them and surely some bookmakers will be paying 6 places tomorrow.

I like Cepage, two good runs over Cd....Think the first two in the market will go for the Peterborough chase on Friday...The market would definitely suggest Al Dancer is heading there!
 
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Fair enough, Maxbet. I suppose I should have allowed you the benefit of the doubt and I am prone to being defensive where my 'work' is concerned, especially when I choose to share it.

The trip was one of the first things about IDR that concerned me but he hasn't raced for a long time and I just wonder if his new trainer has different ideas on that score. The sudden blue move for him yesterday morning struck me as odd.

Cepage is definitely on my radar despite sitting mid-table on my figures but in these big handicaps it's often the case that only a few pounds separate top from bottom. That's when other factors become more important, eg profile, targets, jumping, going, jockey bookings, etc.
 
Yes, I think “other factors” are perhaps the ones that floor the most diligent of analyses. In the same way that a perfect handicap with no other factors in play - including within the race itself - would result in a multiple dead heat, I often muse how close a result would be repeated if the race was run for a second time.
 
Maxbet said:
Didn't mean to upset you Do. Just a light-hearted reference to your Ladbroke Trophy Ratings...We all know how this game can make a fool of you...I quite like the snippets of form Ibis Du Rheu has shown, particularly over the CD, but he's been campaigned over further of late and it doesn't appear to be for reducing his handicap purpose. Nicholl's doesn't give many away that have good race wins left in them and surely some bookmakers will be paying 6 places tomorrow.

I like Cepage, two good runs over Cd....Think the first two in the market will go for the Peterborough chase on Friday...The market would definitely suggest Al Dancer is heading there!
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Both Al Dancer and Master Tommytucker do not feature in the decs for the Peterborough.
 
That’s what makes finding winners/big priced placed horses so fascinating. Especially looking for horses that the bookies haven’t picked up on. Remembering something about a particular horse that might make a difference. Different jockey, track, change of trainer. Something you’ve heard about them that stays in the back of your mind. Then the element of luck during a race. That’s why I love racing so much!
 
I've added Banatar 20/1 to my bets (Massey-Ferguson/Caspian).

He was on my radar for the Mackeson but didn't run. Some of his old form is smart: beat Finian's Oscar and was third despite finishing lame to Shattered Love in the JLT, an two seasons back seemd not to stay 3m when a good third trying to give weight to Valtor before being burst by Cyrname in receipt of just 1lb.

The stable is now in form and Benatar is down to 142, when he should have been making up into a mid-high second season chaser back then but he was taking on Politologue, Valtor and Cyrname.

If he's fresh, fit and well he's no 20/1 shot.
 
moe said:
Exciting day at Hexham (for me, anyway). Adam Nicol saddles his first horse as a trainer, Velkera 40/1. Purple Harry, who Adam won on at Kelso a few years ago (pillar to post) is being ridden by Brian Hughes 50/1. And Little Mo because how can I not back it. Only 16/1. Maybe I should do an accumulator on them even though the first two don’t stand a chance.
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Well spotted Mo.

Hope you backed it.
 
Sometimes you just have to go with a horse that’s obviously named after yourself. Got 18/1 in the end. The Nicol horse didn’t do anything but we’ll still be able to watch her training on the beach. Happy days!
 
And it won in Purple Harry style as well: pillar to post. Slightly makes up for missing the bet on Yorkhill.
 
Haha, I only saw your post after I'd placed my own bet, I was on the staying on second. Well done you though.
 
On Friday at Cheltenham, Dolos 6/1 and Court Maid 11/4 offer the best-priced double of 25.25/1. I reckon it should be no more than 8/1.
 
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