The 2020 Longshot Thread

Two longshots today

Although Equilateral hasn't really shone over 6f before, since he's been gelded his form over 5f has reached a new level. As I have it his 2nd behind Battash was his best effort to date. It might be viewed as he was picking up the pieces but he certainly out finished Liberty beach and Tis Marvellous the latter being a very strong stayer at a stiff 5f so at around 28/1 he's a fair old bet.


The other one I've been very keen on since earlier in the week comes in 3.50 at Ascot Street Parade, I think he's still 33's in places and should be around that generally tomorrow. At the start of his career things were going well probably his best performance came when second to Wedding date from a mark of 101. Re opposes tomorrow as it goes I think he's 16lb better off for a length. Anyway after this run his form nosedived. He then had a breathing op and had a few spins on the All weather and although things didn't really work out for him there he posted a figure that looks like he's well on his way back and when doing so didn't have the best of luck in running. He then had a break and came back at Newmarket , slowly away, sitting behind a wall of horse looking like there is plenty of life back in him. He got dropped another 3lb to a mark of 92 and now Stuart Williams decides to deploy useful claimer Marco Ghianni to take another 5lb off. From watching the runs on the Alll weather he's crying out for a stiff 5f on a straight track run at a break neck pace and he certainly seems to be surrounded by it. I expect a big run however I struggle to see bar bricking up stall 20 what will be able to stop Jonah Jones who was probably the most eye catching runner you'd ever see lto and posted a decent figure in the process of being sandwiched between two horses and not knocked about either on his way to the finish. Our only hope is that there is a lot of pace drawn low and maybe that will isolate jonesy but even so he looks as good a thing as you get in a big handicap.


Best of luck chaps.
 
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Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.

Out to 80/1 with 4 places on offer. I've gone in again.
 
The more I look at the July Cup the less enthusiastic I get about it so I've had a pop at Brando at 40/1. On his day he's probably as good as anything in this field bar the front two and he hasn't had a hard race so far this season. Track and ground should suit and he's got placed form in the race.
 
The more I look at the July Cup the less enthusiastic I get about it so I've had a pop at Brando at 40/1. On his day he's probably as good as anything in this field bar the front two and he hasn't had a hard race so far this season. Track and ground should suit and he's got placed form in the race.

Gutted that he lost so much ground out of the stalls. Would probably have been second at worst.
 
The Magnet Cup has long been one of my favourite big handicaps so I've put in a wee bit (make that a big bit) extra effort to look closely at tomorrow's renewal.

I put up Pivoine earlier in the week after a cursory glance and in anticipation of a gamble which hasn't really materialised and backed it up with Baltic Baron at 20/1 as an attempt to steal a wee bit of value once I saw Paul Kealy was also putting it up.

I've since looked much more closely at the race now that I have proper access to the RP site and, while I am not unhappy with those two bets, I plan to have two more. One doesn't qualify for this thread and it will be a hefty one to trump all the others I end up making. I'm just waiting for the best odds guarantees in the morning and maximum place offers.

The other I've taken this evening does qualify for the thread. I'm not too fussed about not getting the BOG as I got it boosted to 56+/1 to six places. That's just too big for its form. Certain Lad.

I have a couple of reservations, not least the inexperienced jockey but Channon seems to trust him so I only hope he is genuinely value for his 7lbs claim. Earlier this year in Dubai he was a close third in a £100k handicap off 104. Next time he took on Ghaiyyath, for whom he was obviously no match, in an even more valuable G3 but he finished in front of the 115-rated Desert Encounter on only 5lbs better than wfa. On his only run since, he wasn't really asked to be competitive behind Sky Defender at Epsom but met trouble in running near the rail anyway and didn't have a hard race. The high draw is another concern but I don't expect him to be competing for an early lead and if they go fast he might be able to slot into a possie closer to the rail and hope the leaders go too fast and slow up a bit late on. He's more of a 16/1 shot in my opinion but that still means it 1/16 that he won't win :lol:
 
I found it hard going finding a long shot to get excited about this weekend mate but once again I thought this wasn't a bad shout at the price, I might have a few shekels on myself as a bit of cover.
 
The Magnet Cup has long been one of my favourite big handicaps so I've put in a wee bit (make that a big bit) extra effort to look closely at tomorrow's renewal.

I put up Pivoine earlier in the week after a cursory glance and in anticipation of a gamble which hasn't really materialised and backed it up with Baltic Baron at 20/1 as an attempt to steal a wee bit of value once I saw Paul Kealy was also putting it up.

I've since looked much more closely at the race now that I have proper access to the RP site and, while I am not unhappy with those two bets, I plan to have two more. One doesn't qualify for this thread and it will be a hefty one to trump all the others I end up making. I'm just waiting for the best odds guarantees in the morning and maximum place offers.

The other I've taken this evening does qualify for the thread. I'm not too fussed about not getting the BOG as I got it boosted to 56+/1 to six places. That's just too big for its form. Certain Lad.

I have a couple of reservations, not least the inexperienced jockey but Channon seems to trust him so I only hope he is genuinely value for his 7lbs claim. Earlier this year in Dubai he was a close third in a £100k handicap off 104. Next time he took on Ghaiyyath, for whom he was obviously no match, in an even more valuable G3 but he finished in front of the 115-rated Desert Encounter on only 5lbs better than wfa. On his only run since, he wasn't really asked to be competitive behind Sky Defender at Epsom but met trouble in running near the rail anyway and didn't have a hard race. The high draw is another concern but I don't expect him to be competing for an early lead and if they go fast he might be able to slot into a possie closer to the rail and hope the leaders go too fast and slow up a bit late on. He's more of a 16/1 shot in my opinion but that still means it 1/16 that he won't win :lol:
I’ve added Certain Lad to my bet in this. The case you make is a good one.

The one I’ve backed is Afaak at 25/1. 5th last year and 3lbs better off.
 
This one will probably raise some eyebrows...

In the Hardwicke I managed to get 100/1 Eagles By Day and I'm hopeful of a place at least. This time last year he was less than five lengths behind Japan in the King Edward, a big step forward on his Derby trial form, in softish ground. He bombed on his only subsequent start three weeks later at the July Meeting but that was on fast ground, might have come too soon and he reportedly burst a blood vessel. The worst case scenario is that he had a valid excuse for a poor run. He's obviously got a long absence to overcome but Michael Bell is no mug and Tudhope is an interesting booking.

Hope some of you kept the faith first time up for O'Meara.
 
I like a couple of big priced ones tomorrow.
CITRON MAJOR 410Y 25/1 and
MASTER MATT 615c 20/1

I just noticed Master Matt got placed. So Good shout on that.

On occasion I've played a bit of a multi on the longshot thread or and e/w double on selections that get put up only for a few quid for a bit of fun yet somehow I always seem to miss the days when the thread does well haha.
 
Newbury 2.15 Bernardo O'Reilly 66/1 - won off this mark the last time he was on it so no way he should be this price.
 
To extract the full value just do a win bet @ 66/1 and fill your boots with the 20/1 for a place on b365 place market

That's an angle I often exploit, frontrunner, but it didn't occur to me last night (after several drinks). Done now.

It will probably finish fourth now.:)
 
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Pogo probably shouldn't be anywhere near 20/1 at Chantilly (3.25) this afternoon. His Windsor race maybe fell apart a wee bit but he destroyed a fair field and my figures suggest he only needs to find a couple of pounds' improvement to have as good a chance as anything else and he strikes me as being on a fair curve as it is. The win certainly isn't out of the question but it's a stonking ew bet.
 
Pogo probably shouldn't be anywhere near 20/1 at Chantilly (3.25) this afternoon. His Windsor race maybe fell apart a wee bit but he destroyed a fair field and my figures suggest he only needs to find a couple of pounds' improvement to have as good a chance as anything else and he strikes me as being on a fair curve as it is. The win certainly isn't out of the question but it's a stonking ew bet.

Made the running and kept on well for third. I went in again at 33/1 when that price became available. Happy enough with the run.
 
Well done with Pogo Mo, think he's held on for 3rd out there and will forgive you the cheeky after timing for the queen and glad you've picked up some compensation for yesterday :)
 
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