The 2020 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
The other longshot I've backed is No Nonsense at 80/1 to six places. He's much more of an out-of-the-box-thinking selection but there's a glimmer of hope in there.
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Any hope extinguished at the start.

I wouldn't want to be within kicking distance of David Elsworth for the next 24 hours...
 
Unibet you're on hcap goodwood tuesday.

SUCELLUS is overpriced at 33/1 with betfair.i was disappointed with the ride last time.ran a decent race at epsom.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.00 at Ascot I've taken Glasvegas at 80/1 in the open market, 16/1 place-only and 50/1 ew w/o Tsar (2pl).

He was a close third in the Windsor Castle last year but lost his form after. Gelded over the winter, he was teed up for the Britannia but blew the start and wasn't given a hard race. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a big positive and, while the favourite will be very hard to beat, I'm hoping Glasvegas can at least outrun those odds. I might even back him in the forecast with the favourite.
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Same race, I'm wondering if Ayr Harbour should be 80/1 with three places up for grabs. Top-rated on RPRs. I feel a forecast coming on :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.00 at Ascot I've taken Glasvegas at 80/1 in the open market, 16/1 place-only and 50/1 ew w/o Tsar (2pl).

He was a close third in the Windsor Castle last year but lost his form after. Gelded over the winter, he was teed up for the Britannia but blew the start and wasn't given a hard race. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a big positive and, while the favourite will be very hard to beat, I'm hoping Glasvegas can at least outrun those odds. I might even back him in the forecast with the favourite.
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Fav won like an odds-on shot. No idea what Murphy was playing at on the selection but he didn't appear to make any effort to restrain the horse at the front and not a lot of effort to keep it going when the pack closed. Never made the running in its life before. Strange one.
 
Outsider said:
Unibet you're on hcap goodwood tuesday.

SUCELLUS is overpriced at 33/1 with betfair.i was disappointed with the ride last time.ran a decent race at epsom.
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Good luck.

I am sweet on Dubai Instinct myself. His maiden success when finishing in front of First In Line (now rated 108) with Aktau in third is working out very well. Even his win at Sandown was franked by the second horse and so its really worth putting a line through the last day. At 25/1 if he runs he is a dark horse in the race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Fav won like an odds-on shot. No idea what Murphy was playing at on the selection but he didn't appear to make any effort to restrain the horse at the front and not a lot of effort to keep it going when the pack closed. Never made the running in its life before. Strange one.
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Next time....
 
Desert Orchid said:
Any hope extinguished at the start (No Nonsense).

I wouldn't want to be within kicking distance of David Elsworth for the next 24 hours...
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Officially a non-runner so stakes refunded, thankfully, as I ended up backing it twice having forgotten to log the original bet :lol:
 
Just watched the race again. He was probably on the best horse in the race anyway but Moore rode an absolute peach on the winner.

Cardsharp can probably be upgraded. He did best of the front-runners while most of the rest dropped well back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the race again. He was probably on the best horse in the race anyway but Moore rode an absolute peach on the winner.

Cardsharp can probably be upgraded. He did best of the front-runners while most of the rest dropped well back.
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I flagged up the winner after Ascot as one not to lose faith in. Did I back it yesterday? Did I b*llox! Completely forgot about it and only realised after I got a pm from a fellow forumite thanking me! (have tried to reply but your inbox is full but really pleased someone benefited!)
 
jinnyj said:
I flagged up the winner after Ascot as one not to lose faith in. Did I back it yesterday? Did I b*llox! Completely forgot about it and only realised after I got a pm from a fellow forumite thanking me! (have tried to reply but your inbox is full but really pleased someone benefited!)
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Inbox wasn't full but I've cleared some extra space.

Just for you :cool:
 
645 galway tomorrow I've done two 40/1 shots.
DALILEO is one.finished 6th last time over 12f under Lisa Oneil who rides takarengo this time.takarengo looked like it needed stronger handling.but with the winner going up in distance and the weights and takarengo not having a claim and dalileo having a 7lb claimer it means its 20lb better with princess zoe and 12lb better with takarengo. In an earlier race dalileo finished a nk behind dalton highway only getting 2lb.johnny murtagh is in cracking form so I'm hoping it Carrie's on.

KINGS VOW of joseph Obriens is the other one.ive had this one on my radar all season and tomorrow the blinkers are back oon and so is the tongue strap.

Gives me something to get excited about.
 
Outsider said:
Gives me something to get excited about.
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Root canal treatment is more exciting than Galway but I hope you get a proper return for your input, Outsider.

On the other hand, I'll be able to see it on RTV for the first time so I might watch the coverage and bet late depending on who says what in the build-up and stick a pound each-way on a longshot for the sake of an interest.

But in the past I've found it akin to roulette.

Of the Russian variety.
 
Tomorrow, 3.45 Goodwood.

I'm putting this one up now just in case it goes blue through the day and ends up not qualifying for the thread. If it takes a walk the other way I'll probably go in again as the BOGs aren't available for now and it doesn't look like there will be any special place terms going.

Ornate 20/1. He won't be my main bet in the race (that one doesn't qualify) but this still looks like a bit of a rick.

Last summer he won the Dash off 99, for which he went up to 103. He followed up by beating the 105-rated Final Venture a length (so theoretically he could be rated 109) but the handicapper left him alone, presumably due to the proximity of an 86-rated filly in third. However, that filly ended the season rated 99 and Ornate gave her an 11lbs beating on the day.

After not quite getting home in a big Ascot handicap, Ornate then took on Bataash, no less, here, finishing an honorable third ahead of rivals rated 105 and 111.

His form then went downhill, possibly going stale after three or four big runs but he had his wind operated on over the winter.

This season he started in the Palace House, blasting off in front before burning out just after halfway and then he went to Newcastle for the Gosforth Park Cup in which he was only caught late after blazing the trail again. A fruitless trip to Ascot saw him badly drawn and hampered late but the silver lining is a drop back down to 97. The smallish field means the draw isn't a worry and his running style means he won't have to worry about a clear run. I expect him to trap like a greyhound and see what, if anything, can catch him. If anything does, I hope it's my main bet :)
 
I decided to look at Galway but only the big race. I imagine Sharjah will win but I thought Mister Blue Sky shouldn't be 28/1 (to 6 places too) given his hurdles rating. Small interest taken.
 
Note to self: never, ever bet at Galway again. You need incredible luck to win there in a big field. MBS never got any and just as the split was appearing for the winner, it closed for MBS and the rider had to snatch up after travelling as easily as anything into the 'straight'.
 
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Outsider said:
645 galway tomorrow I've done two 40/1 shots.
DALILEO is one.finished 6th last time over 12f under Lisa Oneil who rides takarengo this time.takarengo looked like it needed stronger handling.but with the winner going up in distance and the weights and takarengo not having a claim and dalileo having a 7lb claimer it means its 20lb better with princess zoe and 12lb better with takarengo. In an earlier race dalileo finished a nk behind dalton highway only getting 2lb.johnny murtagh is in cracking form so I'm hoping it Carrie's on.

KINGS VOW of joseph Obriens is the other one.ive had this one on my radar all season and tomorrow the blinkers are back oon and so is the tongue strap.

Gives me something to get excited about.
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Good run for my money and wasnt beaten far.only about a lenght off 2nd.
 
Outsider said:
Unibet you're on hcap goodwood tuesday.

SUCELLUS is overpriced at 33/1 with betfair.i was disappointed with the ride last time.ran a decent race at epsom.
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I've only just got around to looking at this you shrewd barsteward, very good spot, I've missed the fancy prices but I've had to have a few quid on at 16's looks a cracking bet you've found. Hope my money doesn't weigh it down, best of luck.
 
Danny said:
I've only just got around to looking at this you shrewd barsteward, very good spot, I've missed the fancy prices but I've had to have a few quid on at 16's looks a cracking bet you've found. Hope my money doesn't weigh it down, best of luck.
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Cheers Danny.lets hope he runs well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.45 Goodwood.


Ornate 20/1. He won't be my main bet in the race (that one doesn't qualify) but this still looks like a bit of a rick.
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Slightly perplexed by Ornate's run. Didn't break quite as well as I'd hoped and always seemed to be struggling to keep up before dropping back a bit but appeared to be full of running late on. The main bet was actually A Momentofmadness which I thought I'd be doing well to get 14/1 about so the 22/1 BOG was helpful. Again, looked to be squeezed out of contention for the lead before staying on well under tender handling for third. Still, a profit on the race so no harm done.
 
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