The 2020 Longshot Thread

You may as well roulette the outsiders at present. Form means nowt recently.

That sack of **** that won the Steventon was a 6/1 shot on form. Stick Dettori on, 2/1. Wins. **** off.
 
In this 4.15 at the Curragh, I've taken Cerro Bayo at 66/1.

Godolphin, Bolger and Manning. I don't care about her not showing much so far. How often does that kind of combo get to go of at that kind of price?
 
Desert Orchid said:
In this 4.15 at the Curragh, I've taken Cerro Bayo at 66/1.

Godolphin, Bolger and Manning. I don't care about her not showing much so far. How often does that kind of combo get to go of at that kind of price?
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Definitely outran her price and better than her finishing place. Might be better in a smaller field as she shied three times away from the whip of Lovelier's jockey as she tried to make her move.
 
Euronymous said:
You may as well roulette the outsiders at present. Form means nowt recently.

That sack of **** that won the Steventon was a 6/1 shot on form. Stick Dettori on, 2/1. Wins. **** off.
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Felt much the same myself, then I analysed the Dettori winner.
It's my problem what I didn't see, the money was more accurate.
 
I always forget to put my long shot fancies up come Saturday so I'll drop this one in even though it barely qualifies as Its only 20/1 with Bet365 atm. In the big 7f handicap at Ascot I could make a case that Shelir is decent Value. Mutamaassik is less than half that price and Shelir is 6lb better off on Ascot form with that one. Although that's probably not enough on its own to turn the tables it would put them in the same ballpark at least, and Mutamaasik would have to be forgiven a huge flop when favourite for a handicap at Newmarket nto where he simply never went a yard. Shelir is also better off with Cliffs of Capri. Again that one is nearly half the price and again finished slightly in front of Shelir last time at Ascot but is worse off at the weights and Cliffs of Capri seemed to be on the favoured part of the track and was only 3rd is his own group. Shelir is also younger and has had a lot less runs so a lot more likely, you'd hope at least to still be on an upward curve. Shelir has had one run in between but that was over a mile on what looked very soft ground at Haydock where he went very well travelled keenly and just got tired in the closing stages so the result is really not as bad as the finishing position suggests. The return to 7f on a stiff track should be in its favour. The draw is always an issue here and once again I'm on a low draw but there are quite a few of the fancied types drawn over that side this time and with the likes of Vale of Kent among them providing Frankie sends him in a straight line should give us a decent target to aim at. You may get bigger odds tomorrow to more places but sometimes these O'Meara horses get well punted. Either way although not one of my strongest selections he's as good a bet as anything in this sort of race at the current 20/1. O'Meara's biggest outsider Cold stare would also have a decent chance of framing on his Ascot form from last year but I think the former has more potential to actually win it.

If I find any more big priced ones with half a squeak I'll try and pin them up as I go.

Best of luck.
 
Danny said:
I always forget to put my long shot fancies up come Saturday so I'll drop this one in even though it barely qualifies as Its only 20/1 with Bet365 atm. In the big 7f handicap at Ascot I could make a case that Shelir is decent Value. Mutamaassik is less than half that price and Shelir is 6lb better off on Ascot form with that one. Although that's probably not enough on its own to turn the tables it would put them in the same ballpark at least, and Mutamaasik would have to be forgiven a huge flop when favourite for a handicap at Newmarket nto where he simply never went a yard. Shelir is also better off with Cliffs of Capri. Again that one is nearly half the price and again finished slightly in front of Shelir last time at Ascot but is worse off at the weights and Cliffs of Capri seemed to be on the favoured part of the track and was only 3rd is his own group. Shelir is also younger and has had a lot less runs so a lot more likely, you'd hope at least to still be on an upward curve. Shelir has had one run in between but that was over a mile on what looked very soft ground at Haydock where he went very well travelled keenly and just got tired in the closing stages so the result is really not as bad as the finishing position suggests. The return to 7f on a stiff track should be in its favour. The draw is always an issue here and once again I'm on a low draw but there are quite a few of the fancied types drawn over that side this time and with the likes of Vale of Kent among them providing Frankie sends him in a straight line should give us a decent target to aim at. You may get bigger odds tomorrow to more places but sometimes these O'Meara horses get well punted. Either way although not one of my strongest selections he's as good a bet as anything in this sort of race at the current 20/1. O'Meara's biggest outsider Cold stare would also have a decent chance of framing on his Ascot form from last year but I think the former has more potential to actually win it.

If I find any more big priced ones with half a squeak I'll try and pin them up as I go.

Best of luck.
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Sorry Danny,but I've backed that as well.for all the same reasons as you.
I will also do arbalet.
 
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Good luck fellas. I am following Gin Palace as a rapid improver but wouldn't put anyone off your fancies.
 
I had a long look at Shelir as it was one I backed that day (might even have put it up on this thread) but can't really fancy it to beat the Sheikh Hamdan horse. Wouldn't put you off it, though, for the reasons stated.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had a long look at Shelir as it was one I backed that day (might even have put it up on this thread) but can't really fancy it to beat the Sheikh Hamdan horse. Wouldn't put you off it, though, for the reasons stated.
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Which one there are 3 ? I take it you mean Mutamaasik ? Have you seen any explanation for the poor run last time out ? I've watched it and it more or less just looked like he didn't get the gap when he wanted it so he stopped trying and pulled it up. Very blatant if is was just not making any effort though.
 
I've also got one in the same race. Blackheath 28/1 with 365.

He had no sort of run in the Bunbury Cup being blocked repeatedly when coming to challenge. Previously he looked to have improved considerably this season. Gets in off a light weight, looks up to a Class 2, and could still be on a decent mark. If he can repeat his runs at Yarmouth and Haydock he'll go close. The negative being his draw, but at his price he's a good each way bet.
 
Maruco said:
I've also got one in the same race. Blackheath 28/1 with 365.

He had no sort of run in the Bunbury Cup being blocked repeatedly when coming to challenge. Previously he looked to have improved considerably this season. Gets in off a light weight, looks up to a Class 2, and could still be on a decent mark. If he can repeat his runs at Yarmouth and Haydock he'll go close. The negative being his draw, but at his price he's a good each way bet.
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I've missed the price on my own selection haha. I put him in a small e/w double earlier with one at York and thought I'd wait to put my main bets on. 14's best now I can't really back him at that. I had another couple of outsiders in mind but I'll have a look at that one as well Maruco cheers.
 
Danny said:
Which one there are 3 ? I take it you mean Mutamaasik ? Have you seen any explanation for the poor run last time out ? I've watched it and it more or less just looked like he didn't get the gap when he wanted it so he stopped trying and pulled it up. Very blatant if is was just not making any effort though.
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Yes. No explanation for the poor run but sometimes there isn't one. If a run is so bad it sometimes pays just to write it off as it often results in an over-reaction in the market and don't forget Crowley stuck with the other one and hacked up so this one may well have been trying to get back below the radar.

I'm not saying Mutamaasik is the main fancy to win this but it will almost certainly carry some money as part of a scattergun approach which will include some proper longshots!
 
Any rain at Ascot ?.

Cold stare pushed out to 40/1 with powers 6 places, some rain due tomorrow but will it get into the ground in time.
 
Cardsharp- drawn widest of all...stalls centre, move across the the far rail solo out in front..
 
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Lol. Shelir looks a proper steamer in the betting. Ebury I fancied the last day at Royal Ascot, but I've committed to Gin Palace, glad to have Hawk Wing on board. :)
 
Maxbet said:
Cardsharp- drawn widest of all...stalls centre, move across the the far rail solo out in front..
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I think it's 22 max so presumably the track has been narrowed ergo Cardsharp should have the option of being on the rail straight away. Whether it's the favoured rail is the question.
 
Maxbet said:
Cardsharp- drawn widest of all...stalls centre, move across the the far rail solo out in front..
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Cardsharp is my main bet in the race at 40/1. Has come down a long way in the ratings for a reason but the stable usually has 'something' in this race.

I have a couple of others which I'll put up shortly. Breakfast calls.
 
Outsider said:
Sorry Danny,but I've backed that as well.for all the same reasons as you.
I will also do arbalet.
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Arbalet was one I was keeping a wee eye on earlier in the week but its form goes twice as far back as Cardsharp's and I was half-expecting to see at least 40/1 somewhere. I don't know if it was earlier in the week but it certainly isn't now so I'm happy to let it go at closer to 10/1 than 20/1.

Four of my long list of seven don't qualify for the thread and I'm not backing Arbalet so I'm down to six. The draw should take care of a couple - I don't want anything in single figure draws - but I'm happy to ride my luck with two other longshots because of their prices.

Habub carries the second colours with the favourite in the third and can probably be upgraded on his run behind Ebury on the far side in the Buckingham Palace as he was probably banging his head against a brick wall trying to keep up with the pace on the unfavoured side and merely served to help Ebury. I've taken 40/1 to six places. The draw is a concern again but I'm hoping he can get into the main group up the centre and take his chances from there.

The other longshot I've backed is No Nonsense at 80/1 to six places. He's much more of an out-of-the-box-thinking selection but there's a glimmer of hope in there. He's relatively lightly-raced and progressed to the point where he spent last season in G3 and Listed class (ran in the Greenham then went up to 102 for running second to Calyx). He reappeared this season an 80/1 shot in the Wokingham and ran accordingly but why go for a race like that first time out? He then ran in the Bunbury Cup when he became unsettled in the stalls and was virtually pulled up. You'd think they'd drop him back to lower levels and easier races but they're persevering with him at this level. He'd need to go up a good bit from his current mark of 90 to get into a race like the Stewards' Cup, which I'd thought maybe was his target, and maybe they didn't anticipate being dropped so much. We'll see.
 
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In the 3.00 at Ascot I've taken Glasvegas at 80/1 in the open market, 16/1 place-only and 50/1 ew w/o Tsar (2pl).

He was a close third in the Windsor Castle last year but lost his form after. Gelded over the winter, he was teed up for the Britannia but blew the start and wasn't given a hard race. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a big positive and, while the favourite will be very hard to beat, I'm hoping Glasvegas can at least outrun those odds. I might even back him in the forecast with the favourite.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.00 at Ascot I've taken Glasvegas at 80/1 in the open market, 16/1 place-only and 50/1 ew w/o Tsar (2pl).

He was a close third in the Windsor Castle last year but lost his form after. Gelded over the winter, he was teed up for the Britannia but blew the start and wasn't given a hard race. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a big positive and, while the favourite will be very hard to beat, I'm hoping Glasvegas can at least outrun those odds. I might even back him in the forecast with the favourite.
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I like your case with that one D.O. I thought the both Tsar and Johan both looked quite good so I might try fc them both to beat him and tricast him to come third to that pair. Good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think it's 22 max so presumably the track has been narrowed ergo Cardsharp should have the option of being on the rail straight away. Whether it's the favoured rail is the question.
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Everything moving left in previous races, over towards the rail, so would appear to have a good draw...bit of support in the market too..
 
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