The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

Desert Orchid said:
As I said after the race, I'm more concerned about her head carriage [on Saturday] than what race she might be targeting.
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That's easily sorted...Just remove the hood....the hood that was put on for reason's we are not privy to...but rest assured; it wasn't to win on Saturday...more likely to get the precise response that Maruco is pertaining to...In short, she was stopped, schooled in public, with licence!
 
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Tanlic said:
Cadzand won well at Kempton but the horse that caught my eye was Torigni. Nothing traveled better 3 out until he seemed to blowup approaching the 2nd last. However he had put himself right into the thick of things and running on empty manged to secure 3rd place.

That surely put him bang on song for this and at 25/1 he has to be worth an ew bet
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Torigni entered in the Scottish County Hurdle on Saturday, Tanlic.
 
Marie's Rock dropped 3lbs.

I still don't like the way she carried her head the other day but that mark is very low for one with her reputation.

I'll have to have something on her for the County. I'd be like a pig in a pool of vomit if she won and I missed her :mad:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Marie's Rock dropped 3lbs.

I still don't like the way she carried her head the other day but that mark is very low for one with her reputation.

I'll have to have something on her for the County. I'd be like a pig in a pool of vomit if she won and I missed her :mad:
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:lol::lol:
 
She's accidentally turned into a plot, and everyone at Nicky's will be laughing at getting 3lbs off given how highly they talk about her. They expected her to be running in and winning graded races this season, and if that's correct she's ridiculously well in.
 
Yes, I took 20/1 NRNB for the County yesterday as much on spec as anything.

My gut says she's got a problem of some sort, though, but knowing the Hendo MO he'll get to the bottom of it - as he seems to be saying he's done with Epatante - and get her back just in time for when the money's down...
 
Maxbet said:
I'd give that meeting, little to no chance of going ahead...
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I’d be mildly optimistic. I live about 5 miles from the track, and whilst we’ve had a fair amount of rain lately (with more on the way) we’ve swerved the snow, and Musselburgh’s location (basically built on sand) means it drains well, and never usually gets extremely deep. We have a biting cold wind at present, but temperatures are hovering above freezing, and I think risk of frost is probably now marginal.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I took 20/1 NRNB for the County yesterday as much on spec as anything.

My gut says she's got a problem of some sort, though, but knowing the Hendo MO he'll get to the bottom of it - as he seems to be saying he's done with Epatante - and get her back just in time for when the money's down...
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Maybe, but Hendo is one of the most cautious trainers around. He doesn't run them if he thinks there may be a problem. Nrnb covers it. She only goes if 100%.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I took 20/1 NRNB for the County yesterday as much on spec as anything.

My gut says she's got a problem of some sort, though, but knowing the Hendo MO he'll get to the bottom of it - as he seems to be saying he's done with Epatante - and get her back just in time for when the money's down...
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Have they gone on a holiday to Martinstown?
 
Right then, 7 pages of educated guesswork thus far.

This race always gets us talking.

My question is, what ground are we looking at towards the end of next week. I couldn't cope with another abandonment.
 
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Yes, when it dawned on me earlier today that we're talking about next Saturday the spectre of abandonment descended on me like a coffin lid.
 
No mention of Solo by Nicholls this morning for this. Thyme White, Wild Max and Friend or Foe the intended runners.
 
Bonjers said:
It's forecast to barely tip beyond 0 for the next week down here. Snow showing in the long-range forecast .
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Abandoned 8 times through frost since 1963...

Although Global warming seems to have blown the trend in the last 11 years
 
26 left in, Buzz topweight

These are NOT DECLARED

Ballyandy Gumball Fred Christopher Wood Marie’s Rock Llandinabo Lad Solo Ciel De Neige Sea Ducor The Pink’n The Shunter Torigini Blacko Mount Windsor
 
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Hopefully the race gets the go-ahead.

These are my own figures for the race. The final column is the best price this evening with the main oddschecker bookies. Hopefully it will highlight some value. I'll put Glory And Fortune on the longshot thread but my worry is that he is a lot longer with the exchange so there's maybe a doubt about him running.

The figure at the top of the ratings column represents the kind of mark it would take to win a normal £20k+ Class 2 Saturday handicap. It illustrates how much better than that this race is.

Figures in brackets denote last season's form (where it is better than this season's) and I always add a notional 10lbs to horses whose figure is based on novice race form (denoted by 'nov').

[TABLE="width: 388"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]166+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]x/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mister Coffey[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Shakem Up'Arry[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Faivoir[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mack The Man[/TD]
[TD](170)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Metier[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]? +p nov[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Milkwood[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune[/TD]
[TD](167)[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Oakley[/TD]
[TD](166)[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] On To Victory[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Buzz[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Highway One O Two[/TD]
[TD](164)[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lightly Squeeze[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Night Edition[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]++? nov[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Edwardstone[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballinsker[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wild Max[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Friend Or Foe[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dans Le Vent[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] For Pleasure[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Thyme White[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cadzand[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Guard Your Dreams[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Annual Invictus[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p? nov[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]14 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sky Pirate[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]174+p ch[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

FUTURE OR Faivoir (+7),Lightly Squeeze (-1),Mack The Man (-3),Sky Pirate (-5)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
[TABLE="width: 388"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]166+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]x/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sky Pirate[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]174+p ch[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

FUTURE OR Faivoir (+7),Lightly Squeeze (-1),Mack The Man (-3),Sky Pirate (-5)
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Here's a strange piece of handicapping. (Makes me wonder if the handicapper reads this forum!)

Sky Pirate hasn't run over hurdles since July 2018, at which point his mark was 131 and it carried over to his chasing career.

Gradual improvement last season has given way to rapid progress this time round and his chase rating has gone up to 152.

Returned to hurdles for this race, his new mark of 140 implies a degree of transference of his improvement over the bigger obstacles.

The weights for this race came out on 13 January. He then beat Amoola Gold over fences on the 16th for which he went up 7lbs to 152.

Just as I would usually allow a notional 10lbs for a young hurdler progressing to fences, I would look to take 10lbs (often it's more) off when they return to hurdles, although some run to the same mark over both.

So when I saw Sky Pirate on 140 for this race I reckoned that was fair enough. You'll see in the above table I didn't give him a hurdles mark but showed his chase rating, which I would reduce in my own mind.

It now looks like maybe Sky Pirate hasn't been entered for any hurdles race since 16 January and the handicapper has decided to have another look at him ahead of this weekend. There was no indication of an adjustment when the 5-day decss came out yesterday but now the 7lbs rise has been applied to Sky Pirate's hurdles rating.

As a result, he now joins Faivoir in being officially 7lbs well in compared to future handicaps. I imagine if they were eyeing up the County Hurdle for him that will knock it on the head.

Normally I'd be all over a horse that was 7lbs well in and sitting at around 10/1 in the betting but this is an incredibly competitive race, chock full of plots, some of them long-term.

In theory both Faivoir and Sky Pirate should be in the front few of the market but I'll probably let both go unbacked.

I've just never seen this kind of adjustment before. (Which is not to say it has never happened - I've just never noticed it.)
 
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A pretty convincing case can be made for nigh on half the field. I’m just sticking with the King pair - Edwardstone and On to Victory. No great expectations, but l’ll be disappointed not to see a decent run from one them, if not both. The 5lb penalty won’t bother Edwardstone too much if he’s on song, but it’s a bit off-putting.
 
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