The 2021 Longshot Thread

Outsider said:
Although I've done Maze Runner as my main bet its stablemate WHISKY SOUR 50/1 is of interest with a good 7lb claimer on.
345N
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Twp against the field for me, based on their hurdles marks: My Sister Sarah and Jukebox Jive (both 25s + boosts, covered by the fav).
 
November handicap.

Wells Farhh go 33/1 or 28/1 7places sky bet.

Has been running in stakes races and has now dropped to a decent mark.
 
Outsider said:
November handicap.
I’ll have to back that one given that I’ve recently been having a ding dong battle with TNTFedex (passport delivery, long story….)and FedEx were, I believe, originally Wells Fargo. Can’t ignore coincidence bets.
Wells Farhh go 33/1 or 28/1 7places sky bet.

Has been running in stakes races and has now dropped to a decent mark.
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Greatwood Hurdle - Ballyandy 33/1 - now 8lbs lower than when a good second to the chucked-in The Shunter (and 11lbs lower than the mark he was put up to for that run), his two best career runs (on RPRs) were over the minimum trips at this track last autumn and he's had a pipe-opener in the last month, presumably with this race in mind. This time last year he was in the best form of his life (again, on RPRs) and his current mark is probably an over-allowance for his advancing years and a couple of modest performances. His price might not shorten up much in the coming week or so but I'm happy to get involved this early because I think the price is plain wrong. That said, I haven't been much cop with these longshots recently :mad:
 
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BC Turf - Bolshoi Ballet 25/1 - I was quick to diss his Leopardstown form earlier in the season but I just have a feeling about this one tonight.
 
PP Gold Cup - Milanford 40/1 - apart from the trip, which might be on the sharp side for him, I like his overall profile. He's a second-season novice likely to improve a lot this year. Probably overpriced on account of lesser known connections and noted jumping well and racing prominently more than once. If he can get into a rhythm on or near the pace maybe his jumping will be a big help and his proven stamina will see him up the hill.
 
Desert Orchid said:
PP Gold Cup - Milanford 40/1 - apart from the trip, which might be on the sharp side for him, I like his overall profile. He's a second-season novice likely to improve a lot this year. Probably overpriced on account of lesser known connections and noted jumping well and racing prominently more than once. If he can get into a rhythm on or near the pace maybe his jumping will be a big help and his proven stamina will see him up the hill.
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Think he needs 4 to come out to get a run.
 
I dont know if it will run or even get in but I cant resist GLEN FORSA 66/1 in the Ladbroke.
Given a good workout last when he went off well in front and should put him spot on for this and if the top weight was to run he would have 10st.
 
I've reinvested the Milanford money on Paint The Dream at 22/1 (+ the boost) to 6 places. I've taken a conservative view of his recent win so he isn't at the top of my ratings but my gut is gnawing away at me telling me that the form might be considerably better.
 
Greatwood Hurdle - Mount Windsor 66/1, 6pl - I'm always on the lookout for Chris Gordon's in good handicap hurdles and I think this one is seriously over-priced. It went up to 140 for a wide-margin win to complete four-timer last season but disappointed next time and again on his reappearance but he's been dropped 7lbs again. Some take a season to drop that much. It's possible he was feeling the effects of his successful spell when beaten last season and prepping for this last time. If he lengthens by Sunday morning I'll probably go in again. Not my idea of the winner, though, just 'way overpriced.
 
On the Cheltenham thread I wrote:

Desert Orchid said:
...

... but I’m focusing on Deyrann De Carjac (40/1), Zanza, Caribean Boy (14/1), Belargus (28/1) and Farinet (25/1). The last-named probably just has a bit much to find but I’ll spread some cash across the others at the best morning terms.
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I'd be prowling the streets in my steel toecaps looking for cats if one of them won and I hadn't backed it so I've taken 40/1 (boosted to 45s) DDC (King isn't my favourite trainer but he's no mug and is more than capable of plotting them up) and 50/1 Belargus (JP in a big Cheltenham hcap regardless of whether he carries the first or second colours or whether the money's down has to be considered).

DDC had good novice form, gave Pym weight and a beating, only 6 lengths behind Champ on his next run and only 2 lengths behind Midnight Shadow at levels in the Dipper and is 10lbs better off here. Soft ground probably against him thereafter.

Belargus's OR has gone from 121 to 137 in the space of three runs and he is entitled to improve again into this season. I noted him earlier in the week but, if memory serves, he was only about 20/1. The drift is a slight worry but he's either here to win or weight them up for the Massey-Ferguson. I'm happy to take a chance at these long odds.
 
Cheltenham 2.50 - Dorrells Pierji 40/1, 4 pl - was rated 139 when a 25/1 shot for Willie Mullins in Minella Indo’s Albert Bartlett in 2019 and was only 11/1 when a very close third to Mr Adjudicator in the €100k Grade B Ballymore Hcap Hurdle at Punchestown next time out so could be well handicapped (now on 127) if Chris Honour can get him back to some kind of form on his second run after a wind op although jockey bookings suggest not too much is expected (Bryan Carver rides the stable’s winners). The chances are, though, that they’re still trying to figure the horse out.
 
3.25 Cheltenham
Breffniboy has drifted to qualify for this thread and may be worth chancing given he showed his liking for Cheltenham at the December meeting when looking like an extra half mile would suit


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viking said:
3.25 Cheltenham
Breffniboy has drifted to qualify for this thread and may be worth chancing given he showed his liking for Cheltenham at the December meeting when looking like an extra half mile would suit


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The drift told the story


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I've no idea if they plan to run him this weekend in the Betfair Chase or wait for the Hennessy but, either way, I've taken Royale Pagaille at 50/1 for the Gold Cup.

It strikes me that his price is down to his not running his race in this year's race and could be completely wrong.

He's still a very young horse and still entitled to improve significantly into this season. He wouldn't need to win either at Haydock or Newbury, just run very well and his price will contract.

It may also be that he's very ground dependent, which would be the main worry for me as I think it could be a dry winter (based on the long-term forecasts I've checked).

I still believe he is a 175-180 horse waiting to happen and that would put him right in the mix.
 
Ascot 3.15 - Dolos 20/1 (boostable), 3 pl - obviously a big price for a reason but is back on a winning mark and the boost and third place bring him into the value punt bracket. I have him top rated on the pick of his form over the last two seasons but whether he can reproduce it is the big question.
 
Grand National - Chatham Street Lad 40/1 5pl - after hearing the trainer's interview this afternoon I can't see this fella running in the Gold Cup now.

The very fact that he threw into the conversation "maybe something at Liverpool" I found interesting.

The horse was rated 153 today and will probably drop a pound or two for it. One more modest run could see his mark drop to around 148 and pretty much guarantee his getting into the handicap off just about bottom weight. The artificially softened ground will do his chances no harm and my figure for his Massey-Ferguson (Caspian Caviar?) win last season would make him incredibly well-handicapped.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.15 - Dolos 20/1 (boostable), 3 pl - obviously a big price for a reason but is back on a winning mark and the boost and third place bring him into the value punt bracket. I have him top rated on the pick of his form over the last two seasons but whether he can reproduce it is the big question.
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Horses finishing very tired at Ascot, I was told the stick reading was 'heavy' after some kind of vibration used on the ground to break it up, even though going given as good to soft in places.

Absolutely stunning horse hacked up in the bumper, Our Jester from Hughie Morrison yard. One to look out for during the rest of the season.
 
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Navan 2.50 - Soldier At War 20/1, 6pl - looked as if he was starting to go places a couple of years back but is very lightly raced since and open to a fair bit of improvement as a second season chaser.
 
Grand National - Farclas 35/1 - meant to back this before today's race but got distracted so happy to take this price given how well he ran. He was probably just too young last season but stayed on late and I'll be surprised if he isn't targeting the race seriously this time.

Happy to have him in the portfolio at this stage.
 
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