The 2021 Longshot Thread

barjon said:
The Mullins favourite - MC Muldoon - went down by a short head to Reshoun in the Ascot Stakes who is only 1lb worse off today, but 50/1 compared to the favourite’s 9/2. Hmm.
Click to expand...

Snuck in with Sky at 8th - 66/1 in the end.
 
Outsider said:
I've took 33/1 MAZE RUNNER for sundays irish cesarewitch. .
Click to expand...

Just need it to do it now.8/1[/QUOTE]

You've done brilliantly with the price, Outsider.

On similar thinking, I've taken Hannon 40/1, 6pl. Rated 140 over hurdles, 77 on the Flat, the biggest differential in the field.

(And Jukebox Jive 80/1 for similar reasons.)
 
Last edited:
Outsider said:
CESAREWITCH


I've took 33/1 MAZE RUNNER for sundays irish cesarewitch. Hopefully he will get in.

When you look at the hcap Mark's of Mullins' runners flat and jumps you have to think this horse has about 2 st in hand.
Click to expand...

2 st in hand or not, in the big h/caps there's sometimes one a couple of lbs better in than that:blink: MR ran a cracker, WD in getting the 33's
 
Outsider said:
My mind works in mysterious ways..
I've backed ORBAAN tomorrow at york but I dont want it to win.ive backed it for the Balmoral at 40/1.
The way my mind works is that Spencer rode it when it was an eyecatcher and he told Omeara not to bother with the Cambridgeshire as he was going to win it with Bedouins story.so a good run tomorrow would put him spot on for the Balmoral.
Of course,he might be running to win tomorrow because he cant beat the gosden horse at ascot.
Either way 40s is a nice price.
Be interesting to see if Jamie rides him at ascot.
Click to expand...

Orbaan balloted out,money back.
 
For those of you who can get the price (I can't) I think the 20/1 on offer about Happy Romance in Saturday's sprint is too generous. Her allowance, taken into account, would make her joint-top on ORs and, being a 3yo, is as entitled as anything to improve again. I've taken longer at win-only on the exchange but will probably take the longest price I can get each-way before the off.
 
Another longshot for Saturday - in the mile race - Lord Glitters 100/1. Got an amateurish ride in the Strensall, his best performance since he won the Queen Anne a couple of years back, suggesting he is as good as ever and can probably be marked up a bit for it, and probably wasn't over it next time out. On best ratings, he should be fourth in the market. I'll need one of the top three to under-perform on the day but I still think 100/1 is at least five times his true price.
 
Balmoral Hcap - Rhoscolyn 25/1 - Arguably pretty unlucky (repeatedly denied a clear run) in the big Goodwood Mile and probably trained for this ever since. 2lbs higher here but that might be neither here nor there since, as a 3yo, he's entitled to have improved in the interim.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another longshot for Saturday - in the mile race - Lord Glitters 100/1. Got an amateurish ride in the Strensall, his best performance since he won the Queen Anne a couple of years back, suggesting he is as good as ever and can probably be marked up a bit for it, and probably wasn't over it next time out. On best ratings, he should be fourth in the market. I'll need one of the top three to under-perform on the day but I still think 100/1 is at least five times his true price.
Click to expand...

66/1 five places on B365 is a great play for the exact reasons you have mentioned.
 
Sir Busker in the Balmoral e/w at anything 25/1 downwards with Bet365 e/w extra. 20/1 6 places is good but I've taken the 18/1 7 places.

Loves the Ascot straight course and a strong pace. Wasn't beaten far in the Queen Anne and doesn't have to concede too much weight all round. Is hopefully drawn well in 3.
 
Balmoral - Saltonstall 25/1, 7 pl - Plenty in his favour in terms of overall form (2nd top on RPRs), a decent draw (10), won three times last October-November, and good 5lbs claimer.
 
Last edited:
BALMORAL

I've always thought a high draw was best at ascot but a lot of fancied horses are drawn 10 or lower.
The gosden horse could well be a good thing but I'm going to stick with the horse I put up a/p
MARIE DIAMOND drawn 1 33/1 should give me a good run for my money.was in the lead on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire at this distance so 33s looks a bit of value.
 
Mile - Benbatl 25/1, 4 pl - Rated 126 this time two seasons ago after a demolition job in a decent G2. Wears the Godolphin first colours and is probably a better horse than Master Of The Seas which is only 11/1 tops. The ground might be a concern, though, but I think the price is worth taking with the extra place on offer.
 
450Nb LUNAR JET 33/1 hasnt run well for a while hence the price but hes 3/3 at Newbury on going softer than good.
 
Ascot 2.10 - Bathsheba Bay 40/1 - returns after a spell on the sidelines but was ready to run at the start of the month (at least it was only withdrawn on account of the fast ground), has been 'allowed' a couple of pounds for his absence and Nicholls uses a 5lbs claimer. Hard to imagine a better race for which it might make the cut, it's a Saturday handicap, it's Nicholls...

Being in Spain, I can only use my Unibet account so no extra places for me but I did the odds boosted to 45/1.
 
Asc 3.20 - Didero Vallis 25/1 - few jockeys ride this CD better than Deutsch and Williams targets these races. The horse strikes me as a relatively late improver and I'm very surprised at the price. I'd have been prepared to back it single-figure odds.
 
Although I've done Maze Runner as my main bet its stablemate WHISKY SOUR 50/1 is of interest with a good 7lb claimer on.
345N
 
Back
Top