The 2021 Longshot Thread

Happy Valley. 2.50. Decrypt has been out of form in Hong Kong. Now gelded, dropping down the weights, and they stick the tongue tie and blinkers on tomorrow. I will have a go each way at an absoloutely humongous price.

I only got looking at Happy Valley due to the chronic small fields in the U.K tomorrow!
 
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Welsh Grand National - Lake View Lad 40/1 - now 4lbs lower than when he beat Santini and Native River at Aintree last season. Probably flattered by the form but his other best form (winning the Rowland Merrick and a big run in the Ultima) is in the same ball park on RPRs. Unlikely to be trained for the Grand National, I reckon, since he's been there twice and bombed both times, and Ayr likely to throw up ground that's too fast.
 
Newbury 3.35 - Shannon Bridge 40/1, 5 pl - I put something else up on the 'backing today' thread but this one is worth a punt too, for me. I have him joint second-top rated and he's only 2lbs off the top on RPRs. I suspect I'm over-rating him slightly and he might need softer ground but he's had two runs to straighten him out and you won't get many Skelton runners at this price in a competitive handicap. The top price and extra place are bonuses.

Newbury 2.25 - Due Reward 25/1 (or 20/1, 4pl) - inconsistent but he was rated in the mid-130s in Ireland for De Bromhead, which would translate to a UK mark of around 140 (131 today), and looked to have improved last time on his second run for his new yard.
 
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edgt said:
Welsh Grand National Copperhead 40/1 .
Tizzards believe he is back to his best , fear Ladbroke Trophy comes too soon but Chepstow his target, for what it's worth.
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I was wondering why he was blue pretty much across the board [for tomorrow] during the week. I'm pretty sure he was quite strong in the market last year and chased the pace for a circuit before dropping out.
 
I was dying for them to get a run into Copperhead before tomorrow since he is 0/5 and unplaced off breaks of more than 60 days. They haven’t and it’s put me off so I’m with edgt thinking of it as more a prep run for the WGN.
 
I plan to back a few longshots in the Hennessy tomorrow, to take advantage of the enhanced terms. I was always going to back this one but was waiting until the morning hoping it would be 150/1, which it was on the exchange earlier in the week (which led me to believe it might not run, so I held off). I presume someone of reasonable influence has put it up, though, as it's blue in a number of places this evening: Fortescue 50/1, 6 pl.

When I posted my ratings earlier in the week, some might have noted that this one wasn't that far off top-rated hence it was always going to be a bet if it ran. I can't quite see it winning but it probably should be a lot shorter than 50s.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to back a few longshots in the Hennessy tomorrow, to take advantage of the enhanced terms. I was always going to back this one but was waiting until the morning hoping it would be 150/1, which it was on the exchange earlier in the week (which led me to believe it might not run, so I held off). I presume someone of reasonable influence has put it up, though, as it's blue in a number of places this evening: Fortescue 50/1, 6 pl.

When I posted my ratings earlier in the week, some might have noted that this one wasn't that far off top-rated hence it was always going to be a bet if it ran. I can't quite see it winning but it probably should be a lot shorter than 50s.
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https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/for...-Nov-27th-2021&p=762080&viewfull=1#post762080

Can you explain for the uninitiated exactly what the number in the MON 176+ column actually means?
 
Like all ratings (bar the 1970s Sporting Life Dick Whitford ratings, from memory :)) the higher the better.

In theory, they're not really on a different scale from RPRs but there is a general 5lbs differential (from experience) between mine and RPRs, certainly as far as handicaps are concerned.

The 176 at the top of the MON column represents the rating (on the scale) normally required to win a Saturday TV handicap. The '+' is because this race invariably requires a bit more than that.

For this race I'd be looking for something capable of hitting at least 180 on the scale.
 
Next longshot for the Hennessy - Full Back 50/1, 7 pl - this one is even closer to the top of my ratings table than Fortescue and I've been watching it gradually slide in the market through the week.

He was only 9/2 - same price as Remastered - in the Reynoldstown but jumped like a piano stool. Demachine was favourite that day at 5/2. Today they are 12/1 and 16/1 respectively while Full Back is better off by 8lbs and 4lbs.

In my ratings table, I noted that his best form was in heavy but he has a joint-top RPR with that on good ground so I'm not going to let the going put me off. In that good-ground race he ran Premier D'troice to a neck giving it 12lbs despite losing a shoe and finishing lame. Next twice, that one got RPRs of 139 so in theory Full Back could be around a 151 novice with second-season improvement to come, compared with his mark here of 138.

Yes, it's all cherrypicking but at the price and place offers I'm happy to dabble. I'm genuinely concerned that his jumping might not hold up (whereas I wouldn't worry about Remastered's) and the fact that he seems to lose more shoes than Mrs O is another issue that they need to address.

But, in theory, he could be very well handicapped and very much under the radar.

Edit - do or do I not have the power to move markets?

In the time between my backing it and posting this, Full Back has been pushed out to 66s :lol: (and there's no BOG with the enhanced terms :().
 
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Newbury 3.35 - Ashutor 50/1, 5pl - Second-top in my ratings table so probably shouldn’t be anywhere near this price (66/1 yesterday evening), though, and is also worth a punt, especially if you can get it to five places. Once rated 140 (now 132) as a novice for Nicholls, he was sold cheaply but maybe his new trainer can spark a revival.

Newcastle 2.05 - Informateur 20/1, 5pl - curve horse overall, decent claimer and second-season novice open to a lot of improvement.
 
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Final longshot for the Hennessy - Mister Malarky 50 (exch), 9/2 5 place market - I've been on and off this one like a step aerobic exercise this week. It's top rated on my figures and was top on RPRs until they did their final tweaks, plus it has a good 7lb claimer to help. It's about as consistent as Hendo's approach with his big stars but the hrose is very talented on his day. To be honest, I'm not so sure consistency is a real issue. I just think he's a plot horse. I think they take a long-term view of a race and just work towards it and nothing else in between matters. Seven of his top 8 career RPRs have been in races worth between £23k (2018-19) and £142k (this race in 2019) to the winner. His career best was in the former Racing Post Trophy last season at Kempton in February when a good third under today's jockey to Clondaw Castle off 155 so he's been dropped 7lbs for three subsequent runs, which is generous. Against him is the fact that he isn't a second-season novice and he'll be vulnerable to one of them. He was 40s earlier in the week and I was hoping he'd drift a bit by today but he went blue on Thursday and has stayed around the 25-33/1 region.
 
Today's big race had me looking through the entries for the Welsh National again. I'd been hoping FOTR might have had an entry as he'd be - or should be - 10lbs well in if he did, but he isn't entered. While I was looking, another one caught my eye so I checked it out.

Fado Des Brosses 40/1 - represents the same connections as Secret Reprieve, should make the cut and is a second-season novice who could be a lot better this season. His novice win last season reads quite well even allowing for Tobefair underperforming. I have no idea if the plan is to run but he's one I'd want onside just in case.
 
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I hope Honeysuckle can confirm her superiority against the Hattons Grace field, but there's an interesting long shot in the shape of Sam's Profile.

Overall he's quite lightly raced for a 7 year old going on 8 years old. He's not got too much mileage having only had 9 runs.

He has bits and pieces of decent 150+ form over hurdles, maybe starting back from his fifth place behind City Island and Champ in the 2M5F race at the cheltenham festival several years ago.

He then won a grade 2 last season which caught my eye at the time although the form never really worked out with the second horse going over fences, plus subsequently to this performance Sam's Profile was scratched from the Stayers Hurdle.

Admittedly a real gut-punt this one but I feel he is still lightly raced he could be the type to out run the odds. I am keeping my tenner each way til tomorrow though to see if I can get 100/1 ish.

It looks an impossibility as Honeysuckle looks nailed on for the win but I just think Sam's Profile could best of the rest on the day or at least sneak a place.
 
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London National (Sandown, Saturday) - Gleno 20/1, 4pl - I thought I'd try and get one in early here in a race that's been kind to me down the years.

Currently needs one withdrawal to make the cut but I'd prefer it if it happened to be the top weight(s) to ensure he isn't out of the handicap.

He seems to have been a bit of a slow burner, not starting until a 6yo bumper horse so although rising ten there might be room for further improvement this season. He hasn't done a lot of chasing in his career either, another possible reason for anticipating more.

And his current mark is lower than his peak hurdles mark when I would normally expect it to be 10lbs higher.

And, finally, he's trained by Gary Moore who loves to target good Saturday TV races at Sandown. I wouldn't be surprised if this race was identified as the horse's 'Gold Cup' at the start of the season and has been working towards it.

In any event, I don't mind paying to find out.
 
King George - Dashel Drasher 100/1 - now, before you send the van with the men in white coats, hear me out...

I'm not suggesting for a moment this will or even can win; I'm just suggesting that I think the price is completely wrong.

Then again, I have no idea whatsoever if they even intend to run him in the race.

But here's my thinking:

Last time out at his beloved Ascot was his seasonal reappearance so I for one don't find it remotely difficult to forgive him a slightly disappointing effort on the face of it.

However, on the day, he was only 4/1, the same price as Lostintranslation who was getting 6lbs. LIT is top price 16/1 for the King George. Now, I think that's too short but it does point to DD's price being wrong. Second on the day was Master Tommytucker (level weights, 7/2) to whom DD had proved clearly superior when they met the time before in that Ascot race.

Dashel Drasher's top RPR is 169, achieved on his final run last season. It is higher than the current RPRs for the following entries:

Kemboy 33/1
R Pagaille 25/1
Melon 33/1
Mister Fisher 33/1
Chantry House 6/1
Tornado Flyer 33/1
Envoi Allen 9/1
Imperial Aura 33/1
FOTR 33/1
Chatham St Lad 66/1
Saint Calvados 25/1
LIT 16/1
Fusil Raffles 33/1
Janidil 33/1
Midnight Shadow 40/1
Defi Du Seuil 66/1

OK, guys, I'll come quietly now...
 
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RATAFIA 345Nc 35/1 pp,betfair.

Last time over 7f it was slow away and finished 10th but only beaten 4+ lengths.1 mile tomorrow.
 
Becher Chase - Snow Falcon 20/1, 7 pl (longer to fewer places) - will need to go up in the handicap to make the cut if the National is on his agenda so between his rating, potential and price, he will be my main bet in this race. He was a 159 hurdler back in the day, won the 2018 Kerry National off 148, won a G2 at Dromore later that year and won the G2 PWC Champion at Gowran the following season (for which he went up to 160). His form hasn’t been at the same level since but he may have been targeting the Covid-cancelled National and has maybe been kept back since then to get his mark down and they maybe realise they’ve overdone it (144 here). He has the back-class to win a race of this nature if he’s ready for it and takes to the fences.
 
Taking the big 2 on with Greaneteen (7/1); jumps for fun, quickens and loves the track (ask Altior) and - prep race apart- appears to have been aimed at this since.
Cracking contest.
 
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