The 2021 Longshot Thread

With Llandinabo Lad not declared, I've had a pop at David Pipe's Night Edition at 50/1.

I'm prepared to forgive him his disappointing season-opener at Ascot, as it was his first outing for 8-months, and he was never really put into the race at any stage. He also had the hood on, and I wonder exactly why that was the case, as his two best runs have been hood-free in big fields at Ludlow (cosily won a 16-runner maiden), and in the Boodles at Cheltenham (where he just ran headlong into JP's Aramax). Maybe there's nothing in the hood, but I thought those two runs without it were interesting.

He's been dropped a couple of lbs on the back of Ascot; back down to his last winning mark (same as he ran off at the Festival), and - admittedly, like plenty of others in the race - he has the look of one that's been laid-out for this. Price is comfortably big-enough to test the theory.
 
Ta.

Re the Betfair, I'm sick as the proverbial that Solo doesn't run. I presume he has a problem. That's a couple of ante-post sallies oot the windae. Marie's Rock too.

That just leaves Highway One O Two (40/1) as my only remaining bet.

I'm just going to metaphorically reset and start from scratch with the race and focus on recouping losses and maybe getting my head back in front rather than attempt to clean up.

As far as cleaning up goes, there's a pile of vomit next to me...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ta.

Re the Betfair, I'm sick as the proverbial that Solo doesn't run. I presume he has a problem. That's a couple of ante-post sallies oot the windae. Marie's Rock too.

That just leaves Highway One O Two (40/1) as my only remaining bet.

I'm just going to metaphorically reset and start from scratch with the race and focus on recouping losses and maybe getting my head back in front rather than attempt to clean up.

As far as cleaning up goes, there's a pile of vomit next to me...
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I backed Solo as well DO and in an a/p yankee.funny enough when I just found out I backed highway one o two.
Buzz is my main one though.
 
Betfair Hurdle (see race thread for the guts) - Glory And Fortune 33/1.

This one went chasing this season but seemed not to take to it so they appear to have upped sticks with it and started from scratch again, since he will have been off for 94 days come Saturday, plenty of time to get him back in the swing of hurdling.

He was 5/4f when a neck behind Buzz in the race before that one went on to run in the Dovecote off 139, suggesting that should have been his hurdles mark last season, as a novice. Buzz has made his second-season progress and is now rated 152. Glory And Fortune has dropped from 135 to 131 here.

His trainer is a serious target trainer but my worry is his exchange price (56). It suggests he might not run.

Caveat bettor and all that...
 
Of course it does but it increases the chances of making a profit more frequently, albeit a smaller profit.

I'm an old man, Maxbet. It took me years to learn to play it this way! I think maybe it was Grand National experiences that taught me. I'd bet two or three in the race - as most people do - but would find I had thought seriously about the winner only to decide against it because I didn't want to bet too many in the race. It was happening all too often.

I suppose you could say it's a safety net against not being the sharpest tool in the box.

But if I'm getting longer odds than they should be for what I consider the most likely candidates then I reckon I'm operating a book in microcosm, kind of. Rather than betting a couple of point on two horses, I'm happy to spread those points - and maybe more - more thinly across four or five with the better prospects of getting a return.

I'll happily spread five points across ten runners against the field in the National but more than half of them would be in the 33/1-100/1 brackets.

In recent years my bets have included:

Tiger Roll (first time, 50/1 ante-post)
One For Arthur
Rule The World 50/1 morning of race
Pineau De Re 40/1 (morning)
Aurora's Encore 80/1 (morning)

(And not a statistic in sight :cool:)

Of those, I'd say only One For Arthur was my main bet in the race but if I'd settled for two or three selections I probably wouldn't have backed the others.

The slings and arrows of outrageous punting...

Edit

A further thought:

Not long after Mrs O and I were married (so 1981-ish) we decided to join Glasgow's Chevalier Casino as we'd been told it was a good place to go for an evening's entertainment but from that day to this we've never set foot in it.

However, if I were to play the roulette table, would I bet just one number? Would I put two or three chips two or three different numbers? I don't think I'm the type. I'm much more likely to cover a four-square or a row or column and take smaller odds. I don't see my approach to horse racing as being that much different.
 
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It's a fine balance but if you compile your own ratings and/or create your own 100% book based on %age probability for these type of races then in theory you should be betting anything and everything that you deem to have a significantly better chance than the firms, especially with additional place terms on offer as long as that doesn't overly compromise the odds you're taking.

If that isn't working for you then it's the form studying/odds compiling that you're getting wrong. Not the approach.

Nothing wrong with betting many in a race if it's done properly.
 
CROOKS PEAK Dan Skelton.
I put this in my alerts earlier in the season when I thought it travelled well at.i think,cheltenham.
It hasnt shown much since and has finished 4th in a couple of bumpers.now only rated about 125 but i think they have planned something,somewhere.
So it's interesting to see him get an entry in the rearranged betfair where he needs about 4 to drop out but if he gets in he will possibly be out of the hcap but i took a chance at 66/1 skynet.
 
Hereford 3.35

Larcadio is a long shot price and there's probably been valid reasons for his most recent pulled up efforts. I've decided to put a line through those last two efforts over fences. The penultimate one of those chases he was sent off at 4/1 fav, but was noted as unsuited by the heavy ground, (with trainer stating the horse would be better suited by better going). The ground is currently soft at hereford, hopefully it will continue to dry up. On another occasion he lost a hind shoe which would have caused problems. However, overall he's still lightly raced enough, (having only ran three times over fences), to bounce back in a big way in a race that looks very open to me with no superstars in it.
 
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Marb said:
Hereford 3.35

Larcadio is a long shot price and there's probably been valid reasons for his most recent pulled up efforts. I've decided to put a line through those last two efforts over fences. The penultimate one of those chases he was sent off at 4/1 fav, but was noted as unsuited by the heavy ground, (with trainer stating the horse would be better suited by better going). The ground is currently soft at hereford, hopefully it will continue to dry up. On another occasion he lost a hind shoe which would have caused problems. However, overall he's still lightly raced enough, (having only ran three times over fences), to bounce back in a big way in a race that looks very open to me with no superstars in it.
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Shortening into 10s or thereabouts now from a high of 20s overnight. A good sign. Looking forward to it.
 
HopeValleyMatt said:
Great run for the money


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Eamon De Cnoic wins today. I haven't seen the race but 20 lengths was the winning distance. I wonder if Eamon will be entered in The County in his own right. He could turn out quickly again this Sunday where he's entered over 2M at Uttoxeter. He could do with a few more pound in the weights to make the cut for a race like the County.
 
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Marb said:
Eamon De Cnoic wins today. I haven't seen the race but 20 lengths was the winning distance. I wonder if Eamon will be entered in The County in his own right. He could turn out quickly again this Sunday where he's entered over 2M at Uttoxeter. He could do with a few more pound in the weights to make the cut for a race like the County.
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Once 140 rated 10-year old that had to get down to 117 with a 5Lb claimer aboard to win a class 4 handicap...250/1 longshot :lol::lol:
 
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Your probably right pal.

I like the way he won today though. Clearly in excellent form.

Hell be raised at least 10lb (or more) after today's win I'd have thought.

That would take him to 127. If he could pick up a class 3 before Cheltenham that would surely book his place for the County?

I'd rather take a horse in good form than something rated 155 that hasn't won for three years!

What the usual cut off mark for the County? About 135?
 
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Marb said:
I'd rather take a horse in good form than something rated 155 that hasn't won for three years
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Ok Marb...Goshen is on 156....

Now I think if he runs tomorrow and shows the same form (flat included) he has in his last 4 runs, the handicapper could well drop him 3lb. That would put him in the County off 153...Same course and distance as last year....could well have been the plan all along.

Now swallow hard before you eat your words....Would you back him???
 
NOPE.

If Goshen is AA, (as in, back to his very best), then he'll hack up on Saturday then run in the Champion Hurdle.

Or he'll get beat, get dropped 3lb, and not even have a county hurdle entry.

I only mentioned Eamon as a possibility for it, especially if he could follow up today's win with another win in the next week or two.

It's unlikely at this stage I have to admit.

I think someone has missed my point though.

He'll be raised to near 130 after today, and could run/win another handicap hurdle before the County.

He absolutely hacked up today.
 
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The Imperial Cup is not that far away, at the scene if today's demolition job, Sandown.

Depending on what the handicapper does, it wouldn't surprise me if they stepped him up in class next time out in a race like the Imperial Cup. He might have to win again before hand though to even make the cut.
 
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Marb said:
NOPE.

If Goshen is AA, (as in, back to his very best), then he'll hack up on Saturday then run in the Champion Hurdle.

Or he'll get beat, get dropped 3lb, and not even have a county hurdle entry.

I only mentioned Eamon as a possibility for it, especially if he could follow up today's win with another win in the next week or two.

It's unlikely at this stage I have to admit.

I think someone has missed my point though.

He'll be raised to near 130 after today, and could run/win another handicap hurdle before the County.

He absolutely hacked up today.
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Thats not my question...
If he got in the county and ran off 153, would you back him???
 
I can only answer that question after this Saturdays race is run first, Max.

For obvious reasons it's a crucial run.

I feel he will either win well or be pulled up myself.

If the latter happend, no I wouldn't back him for the County.

No one wants to back an injured horse having problems in any race let alone the Cheltenham festival.
 
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