The 2021 Longshot Thread

Only longshots today so far are in the Wokingham:

Gulliver 20/1 - I backed this yesterday in anticipation of a gamble that appeared to start but petered out. Serious shout on the pick of his form but might need to switch from his 11 stall.

Hey Jonesy 25/1, 7 places - did the thread a right turn last year at 50s and only a pound higher now. Surprised the mount goes to Megan Nicholls (I presume Stott is injured/suspended) but won't let it put me off. Will love the ground.

Indigo Balance 30/1, 7 places - very impressive three runs back season in yielding ground and went up 14lbs for it. He’s taken in Listed and G2 class in his runs since and could have been using those to keep him off the radar a bit. I could see him racing prominently from what might be a good draw, kicking early and hoping they don’t catch him.

A place return from any of them will minimise losses.
 
Out of sheer nostalgia I can’t not back Radio Caroline 33/1. Such fond memories of pirate radio so fits in with the nostalgia bet system. I’d kick myself if she won and I didn’t back her.
 
moe said:
Out of sheer nostalgia I can’t not back Radio Caroline 33/1. Such fond memories of pirate radio so fits in with the nostalgia bet system. I’d kick myself if she won and I didn’t back her.
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Good logic, Moe.

You got me thinking back to my house and garage days.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Only longshots today so far are in the Wokingham:

Gulliver 20/1 - I backed this yesterday in anticipation of a gamble that appeared to start but petered out. Serious shout on the pick of his form but might need to switch from his 11 stall.

Hey Jonesy 25/1, 7 places - did the thread a right turn last year at 50s and only a pound higher now. Surprised the mount goes to Megan Nicholls (I presume Stott is injured/suspended) but won't let it put me off. Will love the ground.

Indigo Balance 30/1, 7 places - very impressive three runs back season in yielding ground and went up 14lbs for it. He’s taken in Listed and G2 class in his runs since and could have been using those to keep him off the radar a bit. I could see him racing prominently from what might be a good draw, kicking early and hoping they don’t catch him.

A place return from any of them will minimise losses.
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A Meatloaf moment...
 
First up for tomorrow:

Newcastle 2.20 - Highland Dress 33/1, 4 places - has only half a length to find with 4/1 second-favourite Khuzaam on their meeting at Chelmsford in March when the winner carried him left in the final furlong. He's probably better over another furlong but might be worth a try on this straight six before he goes back up in trip. He's such a big price because he's been out of form lately but I think excuses can be made for each of those runs. At least I'm prepared to allow them.
 
Next up in the Plate - Stargazer 28/1. Blue across the board this evening so felt obliged to get on. It's an old pal of the thread and top-rated with me on its best form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up in the Plate - Stargazer 28/1. Blue across the board this evening so felt obliged to get on. It's an old pal of the thread and top-rated with me on its best form.
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Backed him a couple of weeks ago along with Wise Eagle who didn’t get into the race (ran a blinder at Ayr the other day though). Always have to back Island Brave too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up for tomorrow:

Newcastle 2.20 - Highland Dress 33/1, 4 places - has only half a length to find with 4/1 second-favourite Khuzaam on their meeting at Chelmsford in March when the winner carried him left in the final furlong. He's probably better over another furlong but might be worth a try on this straight six before he goes back up in trip. He's such a big price because he's been out of form lately but I think excuses can be made for each of those runs. At least I'm prepared to allow them.
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Weak this morning and very big on the exchange. Maybe today isn't the day but I'm already committed.

(Mrs O is always telling me I should be committed.)
 
In the Vase - Rochester House 22/1, 6 pl (25/1 available to fewer places) - joint-top on my figures, ahead of the norm form winning an average renewal. Not my main fancy in the race but shouldn't be anywhere near that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up in the Plate - Stargazer 28/1. Blue across the board this evening so felt obliged to get on. It's an old pal of the thread and top-rated with me on its best form.
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Another one for the Plate. I thought about putting this one up last night but held off in case it went out to 80s or 100/1 but it has gone blue in a couple of places as well as the exchange: Sir Chauvelin 66/1 to six places - on my figures he hit a career peak first time out last season (although he had been hurdling), good enough to win an average renewal. Mulrennan is doing well when teaming up with Goldie and I wouldn't be surprised if his wife gives the horse a mention in passing if she's on the early programme, which might cause a little trim in price.
 
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I backed Sir Chauvelin last night. Couldn’t understand why he was such a huge price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up for tomorrow:

Newcastle 2.20 - Highland Dress 33/1, 4 places - has only half a length to find with 4/1 second-favourite Khuzaam on their meeting at Chelmsford in March when the winner carried him left in the final furlong. He's probably better over another furlong but might be worth a try on this straight six before he goes back up in trip. He's such a big price because he's been out of form lately but I think excuses can be made for each of those runs. At least I'm prepared to allow them.
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Maybe did too much up with the pace. Squeezed out when the race was developing and rallied a wee bit late on, ultimately not too far off the fourth spot. No real complaints.
 
Wasn’t sure what had happened. My first thought was he got checked when making his run but then thought he was just dropping back.
 
Sir Chauvelin wasn't off an inch for whatever reason. Never asked a question at any point without really losing any ground just off the main pack. Strange, considering the value of the race although the trainer won it anyway. I wonder if they think he can win the Ebor off his mark yet he might not even make the cut off lower.
 
3.35 Uttoxeter
William of Orange (20/1 BetVictor) has run well since joining Mark Walford and can go well again here having been narrowly denied last time by a stronger stayer


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viking said:
3.35 Uttoxeter
William of Orange (20/1 BetVictor) has run well since joining Mark Walford and can go well again here having been narrowly denied last time by a stronger stayer

I hadn’t realised that one of my favourites, Little Bruce had left the Kirbys and gone to Charlie Longstone. Have to have a few pennies on him in the same race.
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Thanks for putting the race up. Was going to have a racing free day so would have missed that. He’s such a bonny little horse: closely related to a top staying chaser who’s name escapes me. You’ve heard about Saint Are I presume? So sad.
 
Maxbet said:
The Ex French Pascal Bary trained runner Bugle Major, a Juddmonte cast off and now with Richard Hughes, could represent a fair bit of value at 100/1 8 places Skybet.

His sire Mizzen Mast produces horses that love to hear their hooves rattle. Can be excused his run over 1m2f at Newmarket on soft ground after his stable move and now back to a mile for the first time on a fast surface, the distance he's been cruising along at in previous runs.

His last run before his move was a good second to the A Fabre trained, Godolphin owned, Magny Cours, who was raised to 115 for the run. Getting up in the final 100 yds and asserting close home.

Bugle Major was given a rating of 99 by the English handicapper, dropped to 98 for his defeat at Newmarket....That could mean he is a stone well in here, coupled with the fast ground and a front running Charge of the Light Brigade style, catch me if you can run...."da da, da durghhhh"
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viking said:
Followed you in with Bugle Major at 100/1 (SkyBet 8 places). Has some decent French form chasing home the 115 rated Magny Cours before Hughes bought him.
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Maxbet said:
He ran a blinder, tacked across to the stand side, cruising but stuck behind the wall, a gap appears closes and sandwiches him, the jockey squeezes through only to run into another wall...finished with a flurry. definitely one for the notebook. With a clear run, would have been top 5..
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https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/john-smiths-cup-and-bunbury-cup-tips/192808
 
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Aw yes, the Bunbury Cup....

I stuck 50 each way on On A Session before his last race, thinking he may win, then shorten for the Bunbury.

A bit dissapointing he was, I fear I've thrown 100 quid of casino winnings on a non hoper.

If he makes the cut I'll count myself quite lucky...
 
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Marb said:
Aw yes, the Bunbury Cup....

I stuck 50 each way on On A Session before his last race, thinking he may win, then shorten for the Bunbury.

A bit disappointing he was, I fear I've thrown 100 quid of casino winnings on a non-hoper.

If he makes the cut I'll count myself quite lucky...
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Accidental Agent 33/1....dropped to a workable mark
 
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